SleetStormNJ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Light rain to a prolonged ice storm for parts of the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Horrid...even by hpn sw ct....light rain.. Wish u would do pbp again you were/are fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 its not zero snow and compare it to 18z at 84 hours its slightly further south...both statements i said were completely true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Does the euro need an upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Massachusetts makes it well on this run. Solid/major snowfall for some areas up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Does the euro need an upgrade? yup looking like it could be another euro fail lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 even further north than 18z....zero snow for NYC, still probably not the final solution but not really looking that great.did you even look at the model. The GFS doesn't look great but it definitely looks better than 18z imo you didn't even look at the model. It did trend south so there I said it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So much for the 0z ingest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 i like ur optimisim but the odds of it shifting south after its been going north for days are slim to none...this threat really is not looking all that impressive How can you say that? The models busted badly really close to an even 2 times this winter. GFS isn't that bad. It gives NYC some snow but a lot more to the north. NYC gets about 1-2 inches at best but more as you head north. A small shift to the south would give NYC a lot more snow with the Monday storm. 4 days out so things can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Wish u would do pbp again you were/are fantastic Thank you! Even if we do cold enough at the end the best lift is north of our area low track is just south of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 did you even look at the model. The GFS doesn't look great but it definitely looks better than 18z imo you didn't even look at the model. It did trend south so there I said it! yup saying that run had NO snow was just flat out wrong and u shouldnt be able to post banter crap like that cause ur upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thank you! Even if we do cold enough at the end the best lift is north of our area low track is just south of nyc Yup. As progged right now at least the idea of a signficant-moderate snowfall is diminishing. Concern is it looks like a light-moderate icing for some areas potentially, however, including metro/burbs. We know this will change however probably through Saturday even as the model runs get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 How can you say that? The models busted badly really close to an even 2 times this winter. GFS isn't that bad. It gives NYC some snow but a lot more to the north. NYC gets about 1-2 inches at best but more as you head north. A small shift to the south would give NYC a lot more snow with the Monday storm. 4 days out so things can still change. The cold front sets up to our north on Saturday. That is 24 hrs out, not going to change. Stop believing 4dvar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS has a big snowstorm in SNE and NNE. The overrunning just misses NYC to the north. NYC is dry until the storm on Monday. That's when the temps cool down and NYC sees snow and ice. Not a bad run at all. We still have time for a shift further to the south. The energy isn't sampled yet. read this on the AFD from upton. Snow88 is correct! Overall, the analysis in here has been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 How can you say that? The models busted badly really close to an even 2 times this winter. GFS isn't that bad. It gives NYC some snow but a lot more to the north. NYC gets about 1-2 inches at best but more as you head north. A small shift to the south would give NYC a lot more snow with the Monday storm. 4 days out so things can still change. not saying its impossible just saying its unlikely and it looks like the euro could be heading towards another fail within 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 LC is suggesting the possibility of a triple phaser week of 2/16 (Facebook) That's just silly. The models can't figure things out five days in advance. How can he prognosticate 10 days -- or more -- from a event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 LC is suggesting the possibility of a triple phaser week of 2/16 (Facebook) Really? Ok then we'll have a blizzard on 2/18. Honestly things like that don't make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The cold front sets up to our north on Saturday. That is 24 hrs out, not going to change. Stop believing 4dvar Face the truth, things can change. We aren't far away from more snow. I love how you say that things are not going to change when in fact they still can. NYC just need a slight shift to the south on the GFS. Nothing big. Also, 4dvar knows his stuff and a couple of mets agree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 read this on the AFD from upton. Snow88 is correct! Overall, the analysis in here has been awful. Yep. Upton said that the models will go back and forth until the data is sampled which hasn't been yet. It's in no mans land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Face the truth, things can change. We aren't far away from more snow. I love how you say that things are not going to change when in fact they still can. NYC just need a slight shift to the south on the GFS. Nothing big. Also, 4dvar knows his stuff and a couple of mets agree with him. Who is 4dvar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Face the truth, things can change. We aren't far away from more snow. I love how you say that things are not going to change when in fact they still can. NYC just need a slight shift to the south on the GFS. Nothing big. Also, 4dvar knows his stuff and a couple of mets agree with him.totally agree with you things can change and will. I don't get how many times we see these models change especially this year. Learn people models can't be trusted. I would really watch Monday's event as that low could really blow up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 yup saying that run had NO snow was just flat out wrong and u shouldnt be able to post banter crap like that cause ur upset no accumulating snow for NYC proper...there might be flakes in the air, sure. a bit of accumulating snow for northern suburbs, yes. the best lift is further north on this run, this is not debatable. i didn't say this was the final solution. stop arguing over minute details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The cold front sets up to our north on Saturday. That is 24 hrs out, not going to change. Stop believing 4dvarI agree. I don't really see the potential for much with this in general. Just because it showed a prolonged light to moderate snow event a couple days ago does not mean it will happen. Very rarely do those types of things happen. In this case, it's been consistently trending to the north. Though I think that northern trend might be done, we'd need more than a "trend" to bring this whole thing back south to the point where it gives anything more than flurries or light snow. In reality, if I had to take a stab at it, I'd say we do see light snow followed by some mixed precip spread out over a period of 12-18 hours or so. If it wasn't for the hype of a prolonged wintry event in our little community here, this possibly would end up just being remembered as a little nuisance event mainly consisting of cloudy skies. Though we'd like everything to simply come south and dump on us, that has no influence on what will happen.....just as those further north would love for it to come even further north, though it will probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 no accumulating snow for NYC proper...there might be flakes in the air, sure. a bit of accumulating snow for northern suburbs, yes. the best lift is further north on this run, this is not debatable. i didn't say this was the final solution. stop arguing over minute details.you should stop misinforming people. The actual gfs 0z run does give nyc snow just not a lot. I would say at least a 2-4 inch snow event as the low pulls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 0z clown map. A few inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 0z clown map. A few inches for NYC. Sv maps are significantly lower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Sv maps are significantly lower...the point is there's accumulating snow on the GFS run and zirob was saying none. He's just correcting him as I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 you should stop misinforming people. The actual gfs 0z run does give nyc snow just not a lot. I would say at least a 2-4 inch snow event as the low pulls out. you should stop misinforming people. a 2-4" snow event would mean at least .2-.4 LE falling as snow for NYC. Where do you see that on the 0z GFS? Again, I am talking about NYC proper. Not Rockland or Northern Westchester or CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Sv maps are significantly lower... I'd venture some of that in north-central NJ is actually sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 That's just silly. The models can't figure things out five days in advance. How can he prognosticate 10 days -- or more -- from a event?Because Larry is one of the best synopticians out there and NOT just a model reading "meteorologists"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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