IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Regardless, the trend remains bad for snow unless you live in SNE. All the models are balking at the coastal development and pushing the overunning way north.I still think we're a long way off from the final outcome. The models are showing major run to run differences on how the moving parts are being handled. The setup is way to complex to make definitive statements 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Ok, if you want to go with that prediction very well. However your statement made it appear as if the GFS was actually showing that, which it wasn't, it was 10 degrees colder. The models can fail to see how cold or warm the low level temps will be as they don't interject other factors. They were wrong with the low level cold of the last storm as the north winds pressing from the cold source of high pressure to our north overcame the warming. Usually southerly winds coupled with sunshine south of a frontal boundary work the same way in the reverse direction meaning it'll be warmer than forecast. If you want to go with exactly what the model shows then okay, but it doesn't mean it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Even SNE struggles on the GFS mean.. Fwiw Because of precip type issues. Even where it snows 850's aren't that cold until you get well North of NYC. The initial activity on Sunday is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This is exactly the point. The trend is against a snowstorm unless you live in SNE. Data coming onshore won't change that. It's getting better sampled as we get closer, am I right? winter flights today great samples Atlantic http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015 PAC http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=ep&nontasked=2015 look for the 0z ingest data to shake things up---trust me on this Understanding current conditions is the starting point, and the most critical part, of any weather forecast.-CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Most people threw out the NAM when it started showing the north/warm solution, because it's a bad model and out of its range. But I think it being so incredibly far north was a red flag. As bad as NAM is, it was hard to believe it could be THAT far off. And now all the other models are trending north. Not very surprising. It just shows that it's never wise to completely throw out a model, even if its solution is very unlikely. It's weather and sometimes strange things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Most people threw out the NAM when it started showing the north/warm solution, because it's a bad model and out of its range. But I think it being so incredibly far north was a red flag. As bad as NAM is, it was hard to believe it could be THAT far off. And now all the other models are trending north. Not very surprising. It just shows that it's never wise to completely thow out a model, even if its solution is very unlikely. It's weather and sometimes strange things happen.No, the NAM is worthless. It makes huge run to run changes even inside of 24 hours. It just gets lucky once in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Every storm Every storm NAM gets bashed.....unreal and tiresome nobody but nobody here understands data ingests but yet they will hug the king??? sad Truth http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml mes·o·scale ˈmezəˌskāl,ˈmē-/ nounMETEOROLOGY an intermediate scale, especially that between the scales of weather systems and of microclimates, on which storms and other phenomena occur. internet forecasting wannabes are a dime a dozen-imho http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 No, the NAM is worthless. It makes huge run to run changes even inside of 24 hours. It just gets lucky once in awhile. If the other models are too far south with a feature 100 hours out the nam may end up being correct because it has a north and west bias at that range, that's basically what has occurred here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just as an FYI, there's zero - literally, zero - evidence that "trend" has any meaning in interpreting models. I.e., it's just random walk that y'all are finding fake signal in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just as an FYI, there's zero - literally, zero - evidence that "trend" has any meaning in interpreting models. I.e., it's just random walk that y'all are finding fake signal in. So what is your thinking of this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 By 18z Monday anyone in NJ is over to sleet or freezing rain, 850mb freezing line pretty much runs right along the NJ/NY border on a NW to SE line. Very noteworthy...as we are now in February and the ocean temperatures are bordering on inconsequential with regards to changing eastern areas to rain...in conjunction with a concave arctic anticyclone perched over eastern Canada...this might well be a case where the so called mix line is oriented ESE / WNW...and a place like the North Fork of Long Island could be snowing while a similar latitude in N. Jersey is in a freezing rain or sleet situation...as cold air is drawn in on the northeasterly circulation around the High from New England and the Canadian Maritimes...this setup is not common...but is a little more likely in late winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 winter flights today great samples Atlantic http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015 PAC http://www.tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=ep&nontasked=2015 look for the 0z ingest data to shake things up---trust me on this Understanding current conditions is the starting point, and the most critical part, of any weather forecast.-CMC What do you expect to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Anyone who thinks this wont shift north more is only fooling themselves. The pv and the hp are shifting north so goes with it the slp north. Im pulling for a south trend as much as anyone but its not going to happen with the pv shifting n every run. Have to respectfully disagree here...too much heavy, dense cold air sitting over Eastern Canada & New England...and with all that snow on the ground...in conjunction with the perfect time of the year for pushing the general storm track southward...it would be quite unusual for this thing to bring really any non frozen precipitation from NYC north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Have to respectfully disagree here...too much heavy, dense cold air sitting over Eastern Canada & New England...and with all that snow on the ground...in conjunction with the perfect time of the year for pushing the general storm track southward...it would be quite unusual for this thing to bring really any non frozen precipitation from NYC north... Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif Monday 7:00am The position ...strength (1022mb) and movement (east prog) of that Atlantic High Pressure Area looks very likely ATM with allowing things to slide off the coast out rather than up jmo-dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Moreover, I think the surge of warmth aloft is overdone and will recede southward as time progresses...ice storms are a December & January phenomenon in the NYC / LI area...because of the alignment of the various semi permanent pressure systems along with the cold ocean waters...it is very rare to see prolonged ice events or widespread ice events in this area in February...that is not to say that freezing rain & sleet do not occur this time of year...but the geographic coverage they envelop is usually small, transitional in nature (ie...it quickly goes to either rain or snow based on whether or not the thermometer is going up or down). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Very noteworthy...as we are now in February and the ocean temperatures are bordering on inconsequential with regards to changing eastern areas to rain...in conjunction with a concave arctic anticyclone perched over eastern Canada...this might well be a case where the so called mix line is oriented ESE / WNW...and a place like the North Fork of Long Island could be snowing while a similar latitude in N. Jersey is in a freezing rain or sleet situation...as cold air is drawn in on the northeasterly circulation around the High from New England and the Canadian Maritimes...this setup is not common...but is a little more likely in late winter. I have to agree with you Mr William. I see that occur here quite often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I have to agree with you Mr William. I see that occur here quite often Thank you...though I am now Pamela ...though I will strive to avoid making personal comments henceforth as it only causes trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Whatever name, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So far to me it looks like Oh Canada! ECMWF 0, GFS 2, GEM 1 tally from the last three storms and the upcoming storms. I was first thinking that the GEM was an outlier, then the NAM join in and now it is looking like the ECMWF and GFS is heading in that direction. I can trust this because of lesst downstream blocking, letting the heights to rise faster and the high to the north take a path further north. In addition the Pacific energy is stronger so it also pushes the heights higher, thus NYC will see little precipatition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So far to me it looks like Oh Canada! ECMWF 0, GFS 2, GEM 1 tally from the last three storms and the upcoming storms. I was first thinking that the GEM was an outlier, then the NAM join in and now it is looking like the ECMWF and GFS is heading in that direction. I can trust this because of lesst downstream blocking, letting the heights to rise faster and the high to the north take a path further north. In addition the Pacific energy is stronger so it also pushes the heights higher, thus NYC will see little precipatition. Troughs over the Eastern US during February do not produce Lake Erie to Boston storm tracks...its very close to a mathematical impossibility. Any surface feature weakness would be hard pressed to make it north of the NY Bight / Sandy Hook...at absolute best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 So its fair to say this storm will not have much of a impact to North NJ i say Bergan/Passaic Counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yeah I'm not too big on NYC seeing rain with this I think it's either frozen or the 2nd wave never comes to fruition and nothing happens, that high is simply too strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 How often does one see a see a quasi stationary front draped from Scranton over to Hartford during February?...Its practically unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yeah I'm not too big on NYC seeing rain with this I think it's either frozen or the 2nd wave never comes to fruition and nothing happens, that high is simply too strong The sharp contrast in temperature will of course yield substantial changes in pressure over the area...which will provide the needed impetus to make precipitation break out all over the region...that is very likely, IMO. Heaviest amounts would be north of any quasi stationary front / wind shift line as the warm air is lifted up & over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The sharp contrast in temperature will of course yield substantial changes in pressure over the area...which will provide the needed impetus to make precipitation break out all over the region...that is very likely, IMO. Heaviest amounts would be north of any quasi stationary front / wind shift line as the warm air is lifted up & over. stop. you're making too much sense! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This winter is 93-94 except NYC is Philly, Philly is DC, DC is Raleigh, and Boston is like Bridgeport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This winter is 93-94 except NYC is Philly, Philly is DC, DC is Raleigh, and Boston is like Bridgeport Its interesting you bring that up...1993-94 was a prolific January snowmaker in the Hudson Valley...but only put down 10 inches or so in NYC & LI with ice storms galore...it was February 1994 when the city and Island saw the outstanding snow amounts...Patchogue on Long Island came in with nearly 30 inches that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 No, the NAM is worthless. It makes huge run to run changes even inside of 24 hours. It just gets lucky once in awhile. Most people threw out the NAM when it started showing the north/warm solution, because it's a bad model and out of its range. But I think it being so incredibly far north was a red flag. As bad as NAM is, it was hard to believe it could be THAT far off. And now all the other models are trending north. Not very surprising. It just shows that it's never wise to completely throw out a model, even if its solution is very unlikely. It's weather and sometimes strange things happen. Sometimes the Nam does show trends that other models then follow. I have seen it before. Not that I am a big fan of the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I think there is going to be a decent Miller A eventually this winter where everyone from DCA to Boston gets clocked, may very well be in March but I think it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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