wkd Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Looks like the 0F 850 never makes it north of central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Snow maps look like 2-4" North of the city and 1-2" south of MMU. A bit more towards LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Looks like the 0F 850 never makes it north of central NJ gfs_namer_096_850_temp_ht.gif The 850mb freezing line goes North before that, then ticks back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 And Upton just proved my point in their afternoon AFD - only took until the next scheduled model runs at 12Z - they are forecasting model run to model run and changing their outlook and forecast every cycle - so throwing around snowfall totals of 8 inches in their A.M. AFD looks kind of foolish now - nothing like flip flopping - expect changes again later tonight......... You need to learn what "potential" means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Here are the surface temps on Monday as the precip moves in And 850mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Here are the surface temps on Monday as the precip moves in And 850mb temps Huge CAD signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 And this is the result at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 To compare runs... here was the 12z run valid at 12z Monday And here is the current run valid the same time And here is the surface temp comparison 12z run 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Ice storm signal, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 3 days out. Hopefully we see positive changes soon. 3 days is pretty close. I know it's been a poorly modeled year so far, but the trend is clear at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 And the final comparison is at H5. The northern stream was quicker and a sloppy phase occured. It also helped push everything East quicker. 12z run valid 12z Monday And the 18z GFS valid for the same period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Not to mention, the nao is forecast to trend negative Maybe less positive than now, but certainly not negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The other problem is the Pacific energy. The trend has been to flatten out that trough which is pushing the ridge axis East. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Maybe less positive than now, but certainly not negative. Slightly negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 the differences between the 12z and 18z are subtle, i really don't think breaking them down in detail serves a great purpose. I think the best you can say right for NYC is that there will probably be temperature issues at least the farther south you go and ice is a possibility. Whether one model has ground temperatures 2 degrees higher is really mostly noise. Now the move from 36 hours ago I will agree is a warmer trend, but I don't see anything worth really breaking down between 12z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 You need to learn what "potential" means. notice in their morning AFD that they stated they were more confident the precip was going to be all snow ? After the 12Z model runs that confidence went totally away - and watch there will be a different solution at 0Z and then again at 12Z tomorrow - what the models are showing now - an ice storm has a good chance IMO of not happening because the models do not have a handle on this situation yet......they are flip flopping around and Upton is flip flopping with them..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 NWS 850 maps apparently are different than those from tropical tidbits. The 850 map I posted seemed to me the furthest north the 0F line moved, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well if the gfs is right then we're going to have a really nice stretch of weather. Probably low to mid 40s Saturday, maybe low 50s Sunday, and close to 40 on Monday. Going from a 72 hr stretch of snow accumulating over a foot a couple days ago to some nice early Spring weather wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well if the gfs is right then we're going to have a really nice stretch of weather. Probably low to mid 40s Saturday, maybe low 50s Sunday, and close to 40 on Monday. Going from a 72 hr stretch of snow accumulating over a foot a couple days ago to some nice early Spring weather wow. Then bitter cold and dry...we need to enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well if the gfs is right then we're going to have a really nice stretch of weather. Probably low to mid 40s Saturday, maybe low 50s Sunday, and close to 40 on Monday. Going from a 72 hr stretch of snow accumulating over a foot a couple days ago to some nice early Spring weather wow. Yeah you wish, it won't break 25 on Monday if that high is up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yeah you wish, it won't break 25 on Monday if that high is up there I'm just pointing out what the 18z gfs shows doesn't mean it's right of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well if the gfs is right then we're going to have a really nice stretch of weather. Probably low to mid 40s Saturday, maybe low 50s Sunday, and close to 40 on Monday. Going from a 72 hr stretch of snow accumulating over a foot a couple days ago to some nice early Spring weather wow. This is flat out wrong, please don't post misinformation. Warmest 18z GFS frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The other problem is the Pacific energy. The trend has been to flatten out that trough which is pushing the ridge axis East. This is exactly the point. The trend is against a snowstorm unless you live in SNE. Data coming onshore won't change that. It's getting better sampled as we get closer, am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If there's sunshine along with southerly winds temperatures will easily climb above forecast. Temperatures warm quickly south of the frontal boundary. We were easily able to warm into the low to mid 40s yesterday with snow cover and this warm push looks even greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If there's sunshine along with southerly winds temperatures will easily climb above forecast. Temperatures warm quickly south of the frontal boundary. We were easily able to warm into the low to mid 40s yesterday with snow cover and this warm push looks even greater. Ok, if you want to go with that prediction very well. However your statement made it appear as if the GFS was actually showing that, which it wasn't, it was 10 degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 This is exactly the point. The trend is against a snowstorm unless you live in SNE. Data coming onshore won't change that. It's getting better sampled as we get closer, am I right?No, the trough I was referring to is still hundreds of miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 No, the trough I was referring to is still hundreds of miles offshore. Regardless, the trend remains bad for snow unless you live in SNE. All the models are balking at the coastal development and pushing the overunning way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This is exactly the point. The trend is against a snowstorm unless you live in SNE. Data coming onshore won't change that. It's getting better sampled as we get closer, am I right?Not until it hits land. The teleconnections are unfavorable however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Regardless, the trend remains bad for snow unless you live in SNE. All the models are balking at the coastal development and pushing the overunning way north. Even SNE struggles on the GFS mean.. Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I just need 4.5" to cross 50" on the season. That's the goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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