nzucker Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 No blocking, strengthening S/W and departing high. It's a movie we've all seen before. The high isn't really retreating...the problem is the models don't know how far to dig the shortwaves. 18z NAM has the lead vort over Lake Superior whereas the 12z GFS has the vort swinging through Illinois. NAM is probably wrong as usual, should be a decent storm over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 What is the strength of the HP in the models? Don't have the time to look right now. Around 1032mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 What is the strength of the HP in the models? Don't have the time to look right now. 1032 vs 1040 and it's alot further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 There were still 3 or 4 12z EPS members that brough the coastal North and nailed us all day Tuesday. Odds are against it but I still think that is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I am thinking little or nothing Sunday as the overrunning is north of the city. I see that a Dynamic Destabilization Event over running and these typically happen in upstate NY or in central to northern New England. As for Monday it is anyone's guess.on how the upper levels develop. It could be a decent size coastal low or it could just be like the models have it now or a little stronger. It will depend on how much energy digs into the eastern Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 MT HOLLY 341 PM .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUTDRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. GUSTY CONDITIONS FROM THEDAY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMERFROM THURSDAY NIGHT`S, BUT MAY STILL END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOWNORMAL IN SOME PLACES.ON SATURDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT SAGGINGDOWN ACROSS THE AREA, THEN STALLING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ORJUST TO OUR SOUTH. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES AREFORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT, ANDAGAIN ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A COUPLE OF SEPARATE PERIODSOF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THEBEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY MAY OCCUR ACROSS THENORTHERN HALF/THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THE HIGHEST LOW/MID LEVELMOISTURE RESIDES.THEN AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AN AREA OF LOWPRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST OVER THEWEEKEND CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME SLIGHTTIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH GFS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVEAND THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND LAGGING THE LOW SLIGHTLY. THISLEADS TO SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATIONLASTS. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS FORPRECIPITATION IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ACTUAL TRACKS IN THEMODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND ARE TRYING TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOWNORTHWARD. A FARTHER NORTHWARD TRACK AS USUAL WOULD LEAD TO AMULTITUDE OF PTYPES AS THERE IS AN INDICATION OF SOME WARM AIR AT925-850 MB. IT SILL LOOKS LIKE OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEEMOSTLY SNOW, WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE MOSTLY RAIN. INBETWEEN, THE TRANSITION ZONE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS OFNOW. WE WILL KEEP THE SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE AND HAVE ADDED A CHANCEOF FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD FOR SOME AREAS.BY MONDAY NIGHT, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW OFFSHORE,AND MOVE IT EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERINGPRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS EASTWARD AND THEMAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO, PRECIPITATION SHOULDHAVE CHANGED TO ALL SNOW IN ALL AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAYCOULD END UP BEING PRECIPITATION FREE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHINDTHE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TUESDAY INTOTUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THEDEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND LIGHTERWINDS TO THE AREA.ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLYFORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AROUND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEKWHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 One thing goes without saying this winter. The models have been AWFUL outside of 3 days. Bad. REALLY bad. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 One thing goes without saying this winter. The models have been AWFUL outside of 3 days. Bad. REALLY bad. Sent from my iPhone Not really, weve just been on the border of all the storms. New England always knew they were getting good storms and they did, PHL/DC always knew they were getting nothing and they did. Just our area has been on the border of every storm so small shifts make big differences for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 One thing goes without saying this winter. The models have been AWFUL outside of 3 days. Bad. REALLY bad. Sent from my iPhone Totally agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 1032 vs 1040 and it's alot further north Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 And Upton just proved my point in their afternoon AFD - only took until the next scheduled model runs at 12Z - they are forecasting model run to model run and changing their outlook and forecast every cycle - so throwing around snowfall totals of 8 inches in their A.M. AFD looks kind of foolish now - nothing like flip flopping - expect changes again later tonight......... Upton Just updated their AFD a few minutes ago - IMO throwing around snow totals in this very complex setup this early is nonsense . They are once again leaning heavily on the GFS which give close to 0.90 total qpf 143 FXUS61 KOKX 051221 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 721 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN STALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL THEN HEAD NORTHEAST PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 8"+ OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL FALL OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER WE RECEIVE 8"+ IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD TO CONSIDER WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES IF IT FALLS IN A PERIOD LONGER THAN 24 HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF...AS THE 00Z GFS HAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH LESS QPF THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE H5 TROUGH...WHICH IS WEAKER IN THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THIS TROUGH FROM RUN TO RUN IN BOTH MODELS. MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Through 45hrs on the 18z GFS the PV is a tick North again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The PV ticking North each run is going eventually allow for heights to build over the East and allow the shortwaves to dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 You can see the height fields responding everywhere to the PV in SE Canada being further North. It's pumping heights along the coast. Then as the PV pivots it begins dropping SW through the upper plains, that in return amplifies the ridge out west and the whole pattern slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Our southern most vort max is about 100 miles further SW so far than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Not really, weve just been on the border of all the storms. New England always knew they were getting good storms and they did, PHL/DC always knew they were getting nothing and they did. Just our area has been on the border of every storm so small shifts make big differences for us. Small shifts? Even you know that's not accurate. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On the 12z Euro the high moves east from central Quebec toward Newfoundland on Monday, as the S/W strengthens. That's a position that would encourage SE flow from the ocean. There's a 50-50 feature early but it's lifting out. All in all the pattern still looks very progressive and transient. The shifting positions of these highs makes it possible that what storm does form does so too far north and as flow is reversing to easterly. It's possible the high is in a better place or the 50-50 feature stabilizes, but I don't see anything to ensure a cold outcome near the coast. Also, these initial overrunning deals overshoot the NYC area to the north 9 out of 10 times, so it's hard to count on snow from that. That will likely be light and favor I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Much more consolidated at H5, and digging much more. Snow on Sunday stays over Upstate NY and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It can dig what it wants but were losing our cold air source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Some northern stream phasing occuring over the lakes, meanwhile the trailing vort looks like it will drop into the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The trailing vort is going to try and phase with the lead energy, you can see some interaction occuring by hr 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Trough going negative tilt, surface low over Western PA, mid-levels warming. Cold air at the surface holding strong. Ice, just like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 If you're North of 287 in NY you're fine, otherwise it's sleet or freezing rain for a lot of NNJ. Surface low actually making it to almost Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Very weak transfer on Monday afternoon, temps cool somewhat aloft but not much precip is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 That trailing vort digs all the way to Northern FL. Such an odd setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 About to throw the towel in on this one, with that huge S/E ridge present and the northern high retreating further north and a surface low in PA, not gonna do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Tons of moving parts, about 10 different pieces of vorticy. The models are really struggling with what pieces to focus on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If you're North of 287 in NY you're fine, otherwise it's sleet or freezing rain for a lot of NNJ. Surface low actually making it to almost Philly. How much QPF through Mon night on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 I would have liked to have seen what would have happened if that trailing vort had been able to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 How much QPF through Mon night on the GFS? Most of CT is 1"+. NYC is somwhere close to 0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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