USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 When I lived in Oklahoma we had an event once that was forecast to be FZRA and ended up as entirely sleet despite the fact the sub freezing layer was only 1000ft, the belief was the size of the droplets is what caused it coupled with the fact the temps were 12-18 degrees at the surfaceInteresting. Awesome tidbit of information, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 925 is roughly 2500 feet 850 is roughly 4800 feet H7- 10k H5- 18k Edit : these are estimates based on Imperial formulas Gotcha, but I was asking a different question. What I meant was how thick are the above freezing layers in the column. If they are deep enough, you will get ZR regardless of how cold it is at the surface or what the temperature is at 925. The amateur analysis in this thread doesn't bother me nearly as much as the certainty with which it is stated. The PBP is an utter disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 700mb temps stay in the -4C to -8C range, not sure if that qualifies or not. That tells me it is probably snowing at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Melting layers greater than 1200 feet thick (~365 meters) usually result in ZR. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/precip_type.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Gotcha, but I was asking a different question. What I meant was how thick are the above freezing layers in the column. If they are deep enough, you will get ZR regardless of how cold it is at the surface or what the temperature is at 925. The amateur analysis in this thread doesn't bother me nearly as much as the certainty with which it is stated. The PBP is an utter disaster. You weren't talking about the standards, you were talking about the forecasted thicknesses. Gotcha. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 He knows more than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Everything shifted north this run Thanks for the PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Anyone who thinks this wont shift north more is only fooling themselves. The pv and the hp are shifting north so goes with it the slp north. Im pulling for a south trend as much as anyone but its not going to happen with the pv shifting n every run. now there are legitimate reasons for it shifting north although i am not sure about the every run thing, was the 0Euro really north of the previous or is this a one run trend. With that being said, as we get closer to the storm the more accurate we get, so I tend to think you will be right in terms of the result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 if the modeled front on sunday goes any further north we'll wind up being 50 and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 if the modeled front on sunday goes any further north we'll wind up being 50 and sunny Everyone should be tossing Sunday, if something is gonna happen here it's Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Everyone should be tossing Sunday, if something is gonna happen here it's Monday We're going to have to wait until all the players are on the table before forecasting anything. I read Don's list of analogs and 500 mb pattern for the Feb 8-10 period and snow is favored for us so we'll see. The +AO/+PNA doesn't look as bad as I thought and the AO might be closer to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The model concensus is that the steadier snow on Sunday should make it to Northern portions of the LHV. South of there looks to be just spotty flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I will go out on a limb and say Boston probably gets more snow than Philly. Once these seasonal patterns get established they are tough to break. Seasonal snowfall to date BOS....53.4" PHL.....5.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I will go out on a limb and say Boston probably gets more snow than Philly. Once these seasonal patterns get established they are tough to break. Seasonal snowfall to date BOS....53.4" PHL.....5.2" Whatz New York City at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 NAM is a torch, sends the Mon storm into lower lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 NAM is a torch, sends the Mon storm into lower lakes... this one's going south (no pun intended) on us. North trend likely not done. Only hope is that the models are overcorrecting that way and we're still 3-4 days out-but horrendous trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Whatz New York City at? 20.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 NAM is a torch, sends the Mon storm into lower lakes... Do yourself a favor and don't look at the NAM until the 00z runs Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Do yourself a favor and don't look at the NAM until the 00z runs Saturday night.Or just use the ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 odd that 2 out of range models went north last evening and the rest followed today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 odd that 2 out of range models went north last evening and the rest followed today 3 days out. Hopefully we see positive changes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 odd that 2 out of range models went north last evening and the rest followed today Only seeing the NAM be that far north at 84 hours is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Only seeing the NAM be that far north at 84 hours is good LOL-I'm sure it was a bit of luck. SREF's too. Talk about an unholy alliance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 3 days out. Hopefully we see positive changes soon.The models are also having problems as the teleconnections are in Flux right now with the EPO, AO and possibly the NAO changing States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The shortwaves haven't been sampled yet so im not worried. And its the NAM...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The shortwaves haven't been sampled yet so im not worried. And its the NAM...... All models went warmer today. I think it's the high pressure in canada not being that strong versus anything to do with the shortwaves...granted things can change this far out...3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 this one's going south (no pun intended) on us. North trend likely not done. Only hope is that the models are overcorrecting that way and we're still 3-4 days out-but horrendous trends todayNo blocking, strengthening S/W and departing high. It's a movie we've all seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 No blocking, strengthening S/W and departing high. It's a movie we've all seen before. Yep. Earlier runs had up to 3 high's coming in to save the day, now we're left with one too far north and not as strong as originally modeled. At this rate, we could get a cutter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 All models went warmer today. I think it's the high pressure in canada not being that strong versus anything to do with the shortwaves...granted things can change this far out...3-4 days What is the strength of the HP in the models? Don't have the time to look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 No blocking, strengthening S/W and departing high. It's a movie we've all seen before. IMO this isn't going to end up any further North than it already is. I think that Sunday is a toss, it always was, but Monday should bring through significant precip. Whether it's rain or snow or ice is TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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