USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If the high was stonger this run would have been much worse from an ice point of view. CAD only helps the lower levels stay cold.The key here will be the s/w sampling in about 36 hours and what the AO does. AO forecasts are still pretty fickle right now for the next week, so these two features must be watched. Sidenote*: The EPO is also expected to go positive during this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 the east based blocking has definitely trended weaker over the past day for the mid-range...allows the PV to tick further north and lead to a warmer solution for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 the east based blocking has definitely trended weaker over the past day for the mid-range...allows the PV to tick further north and lead to a warmer solution for us exactly, good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 the east based blocking has definitely trended weaker over the past day for the mid-range...allows the PV to tick further north and lead to a warmer solution for us Again, what good would a stronger high pressure do in this case? If you want the mid-level warming to stop then you need the surface low to go way South until the transfer occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 exactly, good post It definitely has been frustrating where we are, getting much less snow than NYC and LI. Still plenty of time for this potential event to trend better. I'm keeping my fingers crossed ... we need a good snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 the east based blocking has definitely trended weaker over the past day for the mid-range...allows the PV to tick further north and lead to a warmer solution for us That's the unfortunate part without a -NAO. It's tough getting a major snowstorm without it but it's not impossible. Luckily we live far enough north that we reap some benefits because south of us they are getting screwed big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Just so we're clear, the WxBell maps still give NYC 6-7", but it's counting the sleet as snow so all the more reason to take it with a grain of salt. The point here being that some areas still received a decent amount of snow. The LHV cleans up. 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 its not tough whatsoever to get a snowstorm without a -nao stop with these garbage posts i had 60 inches last year, 35 this year and got a 28 inch storm in 2013 all without a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 its not tough whatsoever to get a snowstorm without a -nao stop with these garbage posts i had 60 inches last year, 35 this year and got a 28 inch storm in 2013 all without a -naoNot to mention, the nao is forecast to trend negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Look at the differences at H5 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It definitely has been frustrating where we are, getting much less snow than NYC and LI. Still plenty of time for this potential event to trend better. I'm keeping my fingers crossed ... we need a good snow event. Agree, we've been very close a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 its not tough whatsoever to get a snowstorm without a -nao stop with these garbage posts i had 60 inches last year, 35 this year and got a 28 inch storm in 2013 all without a -nao your 60 inches was more a result of the severly -EPO. Last year was an exception. Generally you want a -NAO especially from NYC south. SNE can get away with it to some extent....this year has been a good example of that. NYC has been on the edge of the good snows and south of there has sucked. Philly and DC with 5 inches YTD while BDR and BOS have 30 and 55 respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 at 12z sunday +10c 850s are near Chicago...not something you want to see to get snow in this area. We're really going to have to hope the arctic front is able to press south enough to keep the baroclinic zone below our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 your 60 inches was more a result of the severly -EPO. Last year was an exception. Generally you want a -NAO especially from NYC south. SNE can get away with it to some extent....this year has been a good example of that. NYC has been on the edge of the good snows and south of there has sucked. Philly and DC with 5 inches YTD while BDR and BOS have 30 and 55 respectively ok so whats ur excuse for 35 inches already this year and a 28 inch HECZ in early febuary 2013? pls stop overrating the nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The NAO is more important for Philly and points south. A strongly negative NAO will typically lead to supression. See Winter of 2009-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Look at the differences at H5 Yeah definitely is slower with the individual short waves and digs the northern stream wave more allowing for greater interaction and amplification like you said. Changes in the phase and amplitude of the western U.S. ridge (and upstream trough) will have pretty big implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Again, what good would a stronger high pressure do in this case? If you want the mid-level warming to stop then you need the surface low to go way South until the transfer occurs. ...and what would make the surface low go further south? Stronger high pressure is the result of more confluence over Quebec which results in more suppression. With less confluence, everything is further north. Look at the Euro maps you posted comparing 12z to 00z....much less confluence over Quebec. A much better look would be a return of more confluence which in turn would also result in stronger high pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Anyone who thinks this wont shift north more is only fooling themselves. The pv and the hp are shifting north so goes with it the slp north. Im pulling for a south trend as much as anyone but its not going to happen with the pv shifting n every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 ...and what would make the surface low go further south? Stronger high pressure is the result of more confluence over Quebec which results in more suppression. With less confluence, everything is further north. Look at the Euro maps you posted comparing 12z to 00z....much less confluence over Quebec. A much better look would be a return of more confluence which in turn would also result in stronger high pressure Right, I'm not disagreeing with you, but you don't have any blocking, just a well timed shortwave trying to run into arctic high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We really don't need multiple people giving PBP's Let Snow88 do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 its not tough whatsoever to get a snowstorm without a -nao stop with these garbage posts i had 60 inches last year, 35 this year and got a 28 inch storm in 2013 all without a -nao Important point. The state of the AO is more important than the state of the NAO when it comes to big snowstorms during the first half of February in New York City. Below are the statistics for the February 1-15, 1950-2014 timeframe: AO: 6" or more: 76% AO- 10" or more: 73% AO- NAO: 6" or more: 53% NAO- 10" or more: 45% NAO- 6" or greater snowstorms: 17 10" or greater snowstorms: 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 925mb temps are too cold for most areas, you need the cold air to be shallow otherwise you get sleet. How deep / high are the above freezing layers on the soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 How deep / high are the above freezing layers on the soundings? Ask Snow88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 How deep / high are the above freezing layers on the soundings?925 is roughly 2500 feet850 is roughly 4800 feet H7- 10k H5- 18k Edit : these are estimates based on empirical formulas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 925 is roughly 2500 feet 850 is roughly 4800 feet H7- 10k H5- 18k Indeed, so the melting occurs at 850mb but then refreezes at the 925mb layer so you end up with sleet. If 925mb temps hang around 0C, or -1C to +1C you will get a mix of IP and ZR, but it also depends on how warm 850's are to begin with. And for good snowgrowth you want cold 700mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 925mb temps are too cold for most areas, you need the cold air to be shallow otherwise you get sleet. Not necessarily. The depth of the above freezing layer is more important in determining sleet vs. freezing rain. Supercooled droplets can fall a long way without freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Ask Snow88 He knows more than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Not necessarily. The depth of the above freezing layer is more important in determining sleet vs. freezing rain. Supercooled droplets can fall a long way without freezing. When I lived in Oklahoma we had an event once that was forecast to be FZRA and ended up as entirely sleet despite the fact the sub freezing layer was only 1000ft, the belief was the size of the droplets is what caused it coupled with the fact the temps were 12-18 degrees at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 IMO, the Euro is a sleet storm and not a ZR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Not necessarily. The depth of the above freezing layer is more important in determining sleet vs. freezing rain. Supercooled droplets can fall a long way without freezing. 700mb temps stay in the -4C to -8C range, not sure if that qualifies or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.