IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 At 96hrs our vort max is more consolidated. Ridge out West is more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 The PV over SE Canada is also a bit further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 The Euro is definitly a bit northeast so far, the vort max is slower and more consolidated, the ridge is more amped up and the PV is East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Snow squalls on Saturday down wind from the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Our vort looks equally strong, just digging a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Digging less like the GFS, light snow moving in early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Less seperation between our vort max and the trailing energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Surface low to Indiana with moderate snow apporaching the area by Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 All of the energy is so much more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Hr 132 moderate snow from TTN North, light snow south of there. A piece of the polar jet wants to drop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This run is further north than the last run. Reminds me of this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's leaving the trailing piece behind and trying to phase with the polar jet. Meanwhile moderate snow continues Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Upstate NY and Central New England get hammered, moderate snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 The vort max was tugged north because it phased with the PV instead of with the trailing energy. Completely different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 NYC north is safe on this run but wow this looked really similiar to yesterdays storm. Low exits off NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This run is further north than the last run. Reminds me of this past storm. You do not want to be here this far out . You want to see the center further south at this range . You will have to count on the block to be stronger . Tread lightly at this range . You are 5 days away with zero margin for error at 12z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Still several inches of snow, interior jackpot. 12"+ from the lakes to Central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 NYC north is safe on this run but wow this looked really similiar to yesterdays storm. Low exits off NJ coast. As much as that sucks for the coast it seems plausible. I always go with the trend. Look at the low tomorrow morning way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Meanwhile our trailing vort is super amped up blowing up a second storm off the Carolina Coast. 00z EPS ensembles FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 As much as that sucks for the coast it seems plausible. I always go with the trend. Look at the low tomorrow morning way north Why does it suck for the coast? Euro was .50"-.75" of precip and easily all snow for NYC and most of LI. Not to mention a very strong arctic high in the perfect spot. Nothing wrong with that run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 12Z EURO is 6"-8" for city. Central NYS does best into NewEngland. Thurs. goes north of us too, but just flurries then for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Why does it suck for the coast? Euro was .50"-.75" of precip and easily all snow for NYC and most of LI. Not to mention a very strong arctic high in the perfect spot. Nothing wrong with that run at all. If you want to get technical there would be some mixing for CNJ, NYC and the south shore Monday morning as the surface stays cold but the mid-levels warm. This run was good for the coast by a small margin. Great run for the interior where temps hold steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Why does it suck for the coast? Euro was .50"-.75" of precip and easily all snow for NYC and most of LI. Not to mention a very strong arctic high in the perfect spot. Nothing wrong with that run at all. It's just a little concerning because there's little margain for error. Wouldn't take much of a shift for it to be mix/rain. But it's 5 days away, so who knows. Maybe tonight's Euro will go back to a much more impressive solution. I would be fine with a 6 to 8 inch storm. We still have not had a storm with more than 5 inches here in northern Middlesex county, just slightly west of NYC. I don't need a huge storm. Just give me a nice 6 to 8 inch storm. Hopefully that's not too much to ask this winter. I'm hoping Sunday is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If you want to get technical there would be some mixing for CNJ, NYC and the south shore Monday morning as the surface stays cold but the mid-levels warm. This run was good for the coast by a small margin. Great run for the interior where temps hold steady. Since maps are not being posted in the discussion thread, what is the QPF for north of NYC? Same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I am not seeing a SWFE on the 12z GFS at all. The GFS shows a relatively strong clipper that takes an ideal track for a moderate event in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 If you want to get technical there would be some mixing for CNJ, NYC and the south shore Monday morning as the surface stays cold but the mid-levels warm. This run was good for the coast by a small margin. Great run for the interior where temps hold steady. This setup is colder and better then yesterday's storm. No chance of rain. Maybe some ice on that run. But 95% of it was powdery snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Why does it suck for the coast? Euro was .50"-.75" of precip and easily all snow for NYC and most of LI. Not to mention a very strong arctic high in the perfect spot. Nothing wrong with that run at all. AG, every HP system over the last 2 weeks has been modeled colder in the 5 days . There is a press through the lakes but the S shore of Long island and Monmouth are 35 and are 0 to plus 1 through the city at 144 . You are 5 days away and every SW this year has ticked N . If the block is stronger CAD wins . If the press is stronger through the lakes and the confluence will bring this South . You have 0 margin for error . Yes it`s all snow at KNYC N and snows on the front and back everywhere else . But you are 5 days away and you have to wait to see if that HP is that strong . 5 days ago this AM lows were suppose to be below 0 . 3 days ago the Thursday AM low was to be below 0 . Both backed off . You just saw a system mix from where 3 days out had NYC comfortably sitting w 12 to 15 . I would much rather see DC the JP 5 days away then the LHV . We will see but that is flag for me at this distance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Since maps are not being posted in the discussion thread, what is the QPF for north of NYC? Same? .75"-1"+ just north of NYC. NYC is .50"-.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 To give you an idea on the snowfall gradient, the inflated WxBell maps have 7" at EWR and 2" for southern Monmouth County. SWF and points North are 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's just a little concerning because there's little margain for error. Wouldn't take much of a shift for it to be mix/rain. But it's 5 days away, so who knows. Maybe tonight's Euro will go back to a much more impressive solution. I would be fine with a 6 to 8 inch storm. We still have not had a storm with more than 5 inches here in northern Middlesex county, just slightly west of NYC. I don't need a huge storm. Just give me a nice 6 to 8 inch storm. Hopefully that's not too much to ask this winter. I'm hoping Sunday is the one. Look at the perfect high pressure, east based block and antecedent airmass. Very good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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