Drz1111 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This would be a big, big ice storm for NYC as shown, maybe excepting southern Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:23 PM, rgwp96 said: or sleet All depends on 925mb temps, it's very close, especially for the I-78 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:24 PM, Drz1111 said: This would be a big, big ice storm for NYC as shown, maybe excepting southern Queens. No, 32F is not going to get it done. The significant icing this run is more towards TTN where the cold air is shallower but cold enough to support ice accumulations. Most of what falls near MMU for example would be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sounds like an exact repeat of the last storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:23 PM, Winter201415 said: not true. An ice storm could be huge as long as the ground is cold permafrost, also the temperature recordings at the surface is literally 2 meters above ground so ground is usually much colder especially with snow on the ground. Of course you can have an ice storm with 32 degrees who are you kidding! Absolutely, good point on the ground temps and it has been cold for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ive seen it plenty of times up here sure things can freeze over quickly but after some warming it will run off needs to be 28 or 29 for the best results its very rare to get a good icestorm with temps around 32 unless precip is very light for a long duration On 2/5/2015 at 6:23 PM, Winter201415 said: not true. An ice storm could be huge as long as the ground is cold permafrost, also the temperature recordings at the surface is literally 2 meters above ground so ground is usually much colder especially with snow on the ground. Of course you can have an ice storm with 32 degrees who are you kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:22 PM, rsteff said: I think he means the surface has to be a few degrees colder It should be noted that sometimes one can get freezing rain when the temperature is around 32°-33°. Surfaces may be colder than the 2 meter temperature. The January 18 freezing rain episode provided an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's still just noise,however, at 4 days out and a lot will change. The only thing that's certain is there will be one or multiple systems affecting the area starting this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 It eventually closes off at H5, just too far offshore. We're not done yet. This run was just a trend back towards what models were origionally showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'm not going to really start trusting models until 00z Friday night when all the players are starting to come on the field. Today's runs will be different every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Why is this so different than 0z? Is it just that everything trended north? Witch run do you guy's think is more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:25 PM, IsentropicLift said: No, 32F is not going to get it done. The significant icing this run is more towards TTN where the cold air is shallower but cold enough to support ice accumulations. Most of what falls near MMU for example would be sleet. A couple of weeks ago I got to 32, even 33, for a bit but the roads were a mess due to the colder ground temps. This cannot be overlooked IMO considering how cold it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Every storm has been trending to crap a few days before. Hopefully it keeps going north ice does no one any good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 You can see where this is all headed. It's going to cut off and we're going to end up with the initial overrunning and the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Basically: today's models reinforce that everything is still on the table. The devil is in the details and there are a lot of details to sort out between now and Sunday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer67 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sounds like we still get into some decent snows in the LHV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:29 PM, IsentropicLift said: You can see where this is all headed. It's going to cut off and we're going to end up with the initial overrunning and the coastal.You think it gets colder or warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 this only matters to a certain point On 2/5/2015 at 6:28 PM, IrishRob17 said: A couple of weeks ago I got to 32, even 33, for a bit but the roads were a mess due to the colder ground temps. This cannot be overlooked IMO considering how cold it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:28 PM, IrishRob17 said: A couple of weeks ago I got to 32, even 33, for a bit but the roads were a mess due to the colder ground temps. This cannot be overlooked IMO considering how cold it's been. 925mb temps are too cold for most areas, you need the cold air to be shallow otherwise you get sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:29 PM, nycsnow said: You think it gets colder or warmer? I trully believe that this ends up being a long, long duration snow event from the initial overruning and then the coastal. One or two vorts will end up taking over and it will blow up one mega low with some initial overrunning if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:29 PM, nycsnow said: You think it gets colder or warmer? Mass TPKE JP never a good sign for us . The guidance has trended N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:28 PM, rcad1 said: Why is this so different than 0z? Is it just that everything trended north? Witch run do you guy's think is more realistic High to the north is weaker and further north, thus the trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:22 PM, IrishRob17 said: You're not going to get severe icing with a temp of 32, you need a temp below freezing. Patently false. The worst ice storm in Philly history had temps between 30-34 throughout. A lot more goes into it then air temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Can we stop with all of the garbage posts about the trend North and the high being weaker...blah, blah, blah. The vort was more amplfied so it was able to dig more which caused the heights to rise ahead of it and slowed everything down. When that happens you're always going to warm the mid-levels unless some type of coastal can take over and flip winds back out of the northeast. The changes at H5 were huge. When you compare the day 4 panels to the 00z run it doesn't even look like the same model. We're probably two days minimum away from having the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:37 PM, Jb1979 said: Patently false. The worst ice storm in Philly history had temps between 30-34 throughout. A lot more goes into it then air tempsI agree, see my other posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:39 PM, IrishRob17 said: I agree, see my other posts. My bad. Quick trigger on the reply on my end. It's all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Isentropic: I like that you use the terminology "back out of the northeast". Something about people using the term "TO the northeast" always bothers me. Sorry. I know. Banter. Carry on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 If the high was stonger this run would have been much worse from an ice point of view. CAD only helps the lower levels stay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 On 2/5/2015 at 6:40 PM, Jb1979 said: My bad. Quick trigger on the reply on my end. It's all goodIt's all good buddy. I myself was quick to post and wasn't looking at the big picture at that moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This is an easy one folks. The city S & E forgot the overrunning . Maybe nw and elevation could get some moderate accumulations Saturday and sunday. The hope is that by Monday we get a consolidated low tracking from Ohio valley off the coast. If it tracks off snj or south we'll be looking at a 3-6" 4-8" type deal for cnj up through the metro 100 mile swath. If low, tracks over us it's nuisance slop and the show is north. This will be the outcome, but will it be south enough. Lets hope we can get something off southern nj or delmarva. Forget Saturday sunday for the metro outside of maybe far nw up into new England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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