IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The vort is digging much more and precip is exploding over the Ohio Valley Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We really don't need multiple people giving PBP's Okay.boss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Night and day, so much more consolidated and more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Moderate snow moving in early Monday with ice for EPA, CNJ and moving towards the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The differences at H5 are unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Everything shifted north this run i really dislike these kind of posts, there is no such thing as a north trend, what there is a trend for is lack of blocking and a good high to the north. look for that instead of some fictional trend. The fictional north trend, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 On Monday the surface freezing line hangs from Philly to NYC with 850's running from NE PA to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 By 18z Monday anyone in NJ is over to sleet or freezing rain, 850mb freezing line pretty much runs right along the NJ/NY border on a NW to SE line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 sounds just like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Significant ice storm from Philly to the NY border. The city is right at 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The differences at H5 are unbelievable. To add some levity about the changes (at least so far) and maybe a dose of insight, I'll adapt one of Abba Eban's quotes regarding human behavior to fit the models: "Models will reach the correct solution after they have exhausted all the other alternatives." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 sounds just like the GFS Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 By 18z Monday anyone in NJ is over to sleet or freezing rain, 850mb freezing line pretty much runs right along the NJ/NY border on a NW to SE line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 96hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Only a few inches for nyc. From over a foot to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Significant ice storm from Philly to the NY border. The city is right at 32F. You won't have an ice storm at 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Coastal taking over Monday night, huge ice storm just away from the coast, again the 32F surface line is very close to the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 You won't have an ice storm at 32F. Not everyone here lives in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We really don't need multiple people giving PBP'sAgreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Hours and hours and hours of freezing rain for the NW burbs. The LHV is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 You won't have an ice storm at 32F. Yes you can if the 850s are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's back towards trying to cut off the low which would be huge. But it's still going to slip East at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 not really alot runs off you really need to be a few degrees under freezing Yes you can if the 850s are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yes you can if the 850s are warm I think he means the surface has to be a few degrees colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yes you can if the 850s are warmYou're not going to get severe icing with a temp of 32, you need a temp below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 You're not going to get severe icing with a temp of 32, you need a temp below freezing. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The surface never makes it out of the 20's on Monday over interior NJ while 850's torch up to High Point. 925's get to about 0C so it's probably a sleet or sleet and freezing rain mix rather than straight up freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Hours and hours and hours of freezing rain for the NW burbs. The LHV is snow. or sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 not really alot runs off you really need to be a few degrees under freezingnot true. An ice storm could be huge as long as the ground is cold permafrost, also the temperature recordings at the surface is literally 2 meters above ground so ground is usually much colder especially with snow on the ground. Of course you can have an ice storm with 32 degrees who are you kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yes you can if the 850s are warm That's not what I mean. Ice accretion usually doesn't happen until it's under 30F although icy conditions could occur if the ground is cold with temperatures close to freezing with light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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