SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 not necessarily true. Although temps seem just a bit marginal around nyc we get a pretty good hit. I still think nyc metro could end up with a lot more precip especially if the low closes off on Monday. Obviously SNE is a tad colder and their accumulations are higher but if this trends let's say 100 miles south we can get hammered by moderate snow from Sunday morning till Tuesday morning. Add that up could be over a foot of snow by Tuesday for NYC. I'm hoping that low forms on the frontal boundary and explodes that is the only way we can really get more than 6 inches. Overrunning is great snow but it usually is marginal for these neck of the woods with this setup. I'm betting the low really bombs out and gives us way more than the GFS just depicted. I'm interested in seeing the euro run... Yanksfan u ready for that pro. Pbp? Any time you have a surface low riding south of a monster high like we have after 90 hours that's a setup for big snows, sometimes the models do not see it this far out but even a weak wave at 500 mb is effective in that setup, a surface reflection makes it even more potent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Any time you have a surface low riding south of a monster high like we have after 90 hours that's a setup for big snows, sometimes the models do not see it this far out but even a weak wave at 500 mb is effective in that setup, a surface reflection makes it even more potent As I said a few posts ago, I highly doubt that we are even in the same ballpark as the final outcome. And I don't buy the initial shortwave running out ahead of everthing else. It should drop into the trough like what models were showing two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Any time you have a surface low riding south of a monster high like we have after 90 hours that's a setup for big snows, sometimes the models do not see it this far out but even a weak wave at 500 mb is effective in that setup, a surface reflection makes it even more potenttotally agree with this. Anyone doing the pbp for the ggem? Yanksfan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Looks like the ggem is even warmer than 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Looks like the ggem is even warmer than 0z loli would toss that only because I just don't see us getting rain from this event unless this thing trends north for another 100 miles. Do you agree Anthony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 i would toss that only because I just don't see us getting rain from this event unless this thing trends north for another 100 miles. Do you agree Anthony? ggem is the warmest out of the bunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ggem is the warmest out of the bunchanother way we could get rain with this setup if it does trend north and we get spotty light precipitation. That would exclude dynamic cooling resulting taint throughout the whole event. I just don't see that at this point. Let's see what the euro says although Saturday's sampling would most likely give us a much better idea of how this will evolve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 another way we could get rain with this setup if it does trend north and we get spotty light precipitation. That would exclude dynamic cooling resulting taint throughout the whole event. I just don't see that at this point. Let's see what the euro says although Saturday's sampling would most likely give us a much better idea of how this will evolve!Are you talking about the overrunning or the coastal? Overrunning events don't have dynamic cooling. Because it sounds like you're talking about the first s/w trending north, which would be an overrunning event and in that case, it wouldn't only be the spotty precip causing rain. However, with the high pressure pushing South and the AO trending neutral towards negative, I don't see this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ggem is the warmest out of the bunch Too bad well it's SNE year anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The waves may not be onshore but you can't deny the north trend. Just my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Are you talking about the overrunning or the coastal? Overrunning events don't have dynamic cooling. Because it sounds like you're talking about the first s/w trending north, which would be an overrunning event and in that case, it wouldn't only be the spotty precip causing rain. However, with the high pressure pushing South and the AO trending neutral towards negative, I don't see this happening.if that coastal stays weak and the overrunning trends north it will taint for sure. If it stays put like GFS depicted it should be a 3-6 inch snow with marginal temps (wet snow) if this trends south we can get a major snowstorm with fluffy snow! Right now it's too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 the ggem always has a warm bias, just look at the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I don't like that +AO/+PNA combo though it doesn't favor much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I don't like that +AO/+PNA combo though it doesn't favor much snow. AO-/PNA+ would be better. The AO actually dropped a little today, and that was not shown on yesterday's ensemble run. It is still forecast to be positive by the time the event commences, but perhaps weakly positive (< +0.5). An AO+/PNA- would be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 AO-/PNA+ would be better. The AO actually dropped a little today, and that was not shown on yesterday's ensemble run. It is still forecast to be positive by the time the event commences, but perhaps weakly positive (< +0.5). An AO+/PNA- would be worse.It's been trending more towards neutral the last couple of days, though a spike is still indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 AO-/PNA+ would be better. The AO actually dropped a little today, and that was not shown on yesterday's ensemble run. It is still forecast to be positive by the time the event commences, but perhaps weakly positive (< +0.5). An AO+/PNA- would be worse.The EPO is also forecast to be going positive for a short timeftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Too bad well it's SNE year anyway. This has got to be one of the worst comments ever on this board. I guess Long Island is part of SNE now. One run of one model three plus days out. Unreal!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Doubt it will....even with that hp in place there is no denying the north trend this year. i really dislike these kind of posts, there is no such thing as a north trend, what there is a trend for is lack of blocking and a good high to the north. look for that instead of some fictional trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's been trending more towards neutral the last couple of days, though a spike is still indicated. It has.One notable early February storm that had a weakly positive AO and positive PNA was the February 2-5, 1961 storm. There were some differences in the 500 mb pattern for that storm from what is currently forecast on the GEFS and EPS, but there remains a realistic chance of a 6" or greater snowfall, even if a blockbuster event is perhaps a low probability outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Nothing signficant on the Euro through 48hrs except for the PV being a tick further North. It's shearing out the initial piece of vorticy less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Real light activity on Saturday, most of the activity goes towards Upstate NY and Central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The shortwaves are more amped up, you can see the height response over the East coast, and it's slowing everything down by about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Very light snow for nyc on saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Steady activity is well to the North on Sunday, more so than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This has got to be one of the worst comments ever on this board. I guess Long Island is part of SNE now. One run of one model three plus days out. Unreal!!!! Ok it's SNE and LI's year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The moderate snow is about 50-75 miles further North on Sunday. Real light activity just clips the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Everything is slower and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Everything shifted north this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The vort is more consoidated this run over MO and it's more amped up. Light snow moving in Sunday night, BL is a bit warm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Everything shifted north this run We really don't need multiple people giving PBP's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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