rossi Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We are ertainly heading in a more realistic direction ( 2-4 3-6 over a period of 48 hours). Sad but probably realistic unless wave #2 is stronger than progged. probably by the Euro tomorrow will know where we stand, for the most part. That's redidiculous. The euro is leading the pack and there is no consensus 3 days away. GFS sucked on last mondays storm with its temperature profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's odd to see so many pieces stay seperated. If everything was able to consolidate a bit more you would likely be left with one heck of a storm. It's hard for me to remember the details but I'm fairly certain that PDII had this appearance of two lighter events a few days out, we all know how that ended up. You're absolutely correct. Two days before PD we were suppose to get some overrunning from a disturbance coming out of the northern stream. That never materialized for us...and well you know the rest . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 You're absolutely correct. Two days before PD we were suppose to get some overrunning from a disturbance coming out of the northern stream. That never materialized for us...and well you know the rest . this is not true at all, it was progged to be a big storm for the mid atlantic a week+ out, and we were on the nothern fringe until the models started trending north once we got closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 SNE storm on the gfs. Lets hope the euro comes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 That's redidiculous. The euro is leading the pack and there is no consensus 3 days away. GFS sucked on last mondays storm with its temperature profiles. No one suggested concensus. My exact verbage was 'heading in a realistic direction'. kindly read carefully & look at the last 6 GFS runs, a more improved model since its upgrade, and you will see trend downwards in the past 2 days. And there is increasing model concensus that the first wave likely to miss us north on most models & and thats why from LHV northeast are jackpotting- ie. Boston's rich will get richer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Looking at the overall pattern I still think we can pull off something big. As usual there is a ton of model hugging going on. It's traditionally our snowiest period of the year and the players are on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 We are ertainly heading in a more realistic direction ( 2-4 3-6 over a period of 48 hours). Sad but probably realistic unless wave #2 is stronger than progged. probably by the Euro tomorrow will know where we stand, for the most part. Using my past experience, the initial vort that runs out ahead and screws the pooch is probably bogus. My guess is that on future runs that will eventually drop into the trough and will cause an entirely different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The SV snow maps are 4"-6" for all of NYC and LI on the GFS. NNJ as well. NWNJ is 6"-8". CT is 6"-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 this is not true at all, it was progged to be a big storm for the mid atlantic a week+ out, and we were on the nothern fringe until the models started trending north once we got closer in No, we were supposed to get two small to moderate events, 4-8" type deals a few days before it occured. Lets not turn this into another off topic argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 No, we were supposed to get two small to moderate events, 4-8" type deals a few days before it occured. Lets not turn this into another off topic argument. As a matter of fact the ETA 48 hours before the storm showed mostly a rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The SV snow maps are 4"-6" for all of NYC and LI on the GFS. NNJ as well. NWNJ is 6"-8". CT is 6"-12". Looks like the 4-6"+ contour cuts right over the city or just south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Looks like the 4-6"+ contour cuts right over the city or just south of it. Right , that would put them in the 4 to 6 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 All of NYC and LI are in the 4"-6" shade. Extreme southern Brooklyn might be 3.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Little piece of LI is 6"-8" as well, on closer inspection. By William. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Right , that would put them in the 4 to 6 . What's your point coach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 SNE storm on the gfs. Lets hope the euro comes southDoubt it will....even with that hp in place there is no denying the north trend this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's odd to see so many pieces stay seperated. If everything was able to consolidate a bit more you would likely be left with one heck of a storm. It's hard for me to remember the details but I'm fairly certain that PDII had this appearance of two lighter events a few days out, we all know how that ended up. here are the maps for PDII to clear up any confusion on how this setup is similar to that one http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/17-Feb-03-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 here are the maps for PDII to clear up any confusion on how this setup is similar to that one http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/17-Feb-03-SurfaceMaps.html Do you have model runs from 72-96hrs beforehand because that's the time period I'm referring too. We all know what eventually transpired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 What's your point coach? Be accurate . I don`t have time to double check your work . If have a har$%^& on for the interior we get it . But when you misinform the board I think it hurts your credibility . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 As a matter of fact the ETA 48 hours before the storm showed mostly a rain event wow. ugly bust-one of the colder storms around here, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 wow. ugly bust-one of the colder storms around here, that's for sure.ETA - - - - > NAM. So we're surprised because? (though ETA was superior imho) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 FWIW, my recollection is that a pretty big storm was progged a few days out. I also remember talk of two waves, but the first wave missed us to the south. This is different in that the first wave is going to miss us to the north. Not sure how that alters the ultimate evolution, but there were some differences as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Be accurate . I don`t have time to double check your work . If have a har$%^& on for the interior we get it . But when you misinform the board I think it hurts your credibility . Read that post again, I was agreeing with him. I said 2-4" initially, looks like it was 4-6". Big deal, it will be entirely different in six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Doubt it will....even with that hp in place there is no denying the north trend this year. This isn't going any further north, as a matter of fact if the two waves remain separate and don't consolidate I think what we have now is very close to the final solution, NYC is in a very good spot for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Doubt it will....even with that hp in place there is no denying the north trend this year. Stronger more expansive high this time and weaker, less amped storm. I think this one may trend further south rather than north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The UKMET looks like the GFS through 72, initial overrunning is mostly north but further precip developing to the west more south as the low forms over the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 SNE storm on the gfs. Lets hope the euro comes southnot necessarily true. Although temps seem just a bit marginal around nyc we get a pretty good hit. I still think nyc metro could end up with a lot more precip especially if the low closes off on Monday. Obviously SNE is a tad colder and their accumulations are higher but if this trends let's say 100 miles south we can get hammered by moderate snow from Sunday morning till Tuesday morning. Add that up could be over a foot of snow by Tuesday for NYC. I'm hoping that low forms on the frontal boundary and explodes that is the only way we can really get more than 6 inches. Overrunning is great snow but it usually is marginal for these neck of the woods with this setup. I'm betting the low really bombs out and gives us way more than the GFS just depicted. I'm interested in seeing the euro run... Yanksfan u ready for that pro. Pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It should be noted that set ups that involve multiple shortwaves can be very complex. It's difficult to know if any of them might blow up into a more significant storm, much less which one. It might be another day or two whether the NYC metro area is dealing with a prolonged period of light snows or overrunning followed by a more significant event. Both scenarios are very much on the proverbial table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The shortwaves responsible won't be onshore for another day and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The shortwaves responsible won't be onshore for another day and a half. that tells the tale right there. Could see a shift to a completely different solution tomorrow night or even Sat am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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