Mophstymeo Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Personally, I think this is spot on. It is in the AFD which is read by enthusiasts only and uses the word potential. As you say, potential is the key word. They also note the uncertainty. What should they do -- ignore the whole thing? What's worse is some media outlets downplaying the whole possibility. In the end, these outlets might be right, but one morning host was talking about "snow squalls" and "nothing major" for Monday as though it's an established fact. To me, that's much more problematic than Upton writing about potential in a release that no one but government officials, meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ok we will see how spot on it is at verification time -which BTW is still 5 days away- also what happens if during the next couple of sets of model runs the qpf gets cut back ? Upton flip flopping time just like they did with the last storm mentioning accumulations several days in advance. Mini rant here but what do you expect them to say? They are required to make a forecast for this period. Should they just say "there is a potential for some type of weather maybe sorta next week". People kill them when they do that too. Saying that there is the POTENTIAL for 8 inches of snow in the CWA is accurate. There is that potential according to models. We all know the models will bounce around the next few days. Nothing anyone can do about that. At least they are making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 First time this gem has shown up this year on the analog list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 First time this gem has shown up this year on the analog list PD II is an analog ? Interesting....12Z Nam at out of range shows very little precip going into Monday FWIW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015020512&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=310 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 PD II is an analog ? Interesting....12Z Nam at out of range shows very little precip going into Monday FWIW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015020512&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=310 yikes, don't use the NAM at 24 hrs let alone 84. Appears to be 2 waves now, Euro and GFS seem more gung ho on wave 2 which would be later Monday into Tuesday. First wave may miss north IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 yikes, don't use the NAM at 24 hrs let alone 84. Appears to be 2 waves now, Euro and GFS seem more gung ho on wave 2 which would be later Monday into Tuesday. First wave may miss north IMO why do you think I put out of range and FWIW in my statement ? :facepalm:12Z GFS is rolling in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 why do you think I put out of range and FWIW in my statement ? Apparently next time instead of making it merely obvious you need to make it incredibly obvious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 one could almost say that the NAM is always out of range even at hour 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Apparently next time instead of making it merely obvious you need to make it incredibly obvious... you are incredibly correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 12z GFS Spotty activity on Saturday, especially North of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The PV is a tick North, the shortwaves in question are a bit south and heights are a tick higher along the coast through 60 hrs. Looking like the activity early on Sunday is going to mostly stay over Upstate NY with lighter stuff clipping the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 All three shortwaves are stronger and the one over Nebraska is noticeably more amped up through 72 hours. You can see the response in the 500mb height fields to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 By Sunday at noon moderate precip is falling from NYC and points North, with the surface freezing line running just North of Rt. 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 By Sunday at noon moderate precip is falling from NYC and points North, with the surface freezing line running just North of Rt. 80. 850 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Bit of a lull late Sunday afternoon with the surface low hanging just West of PItt. All of the pieces involved are stronger and more amplfied but the whole thing still looks like a total disaster in terms of trying to get a stronger system out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 850 line? Over southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Moderate snow moving in Sunday night, looks like this will be the main show unless something changes in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Most of the snow on Monday is probably done early in the morning, temps even warm a tad, in response to a more amplified shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Through Monday looks like maybe some mix and 1-3"/2-4" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Real light activity persists into Monday afternoon and evening. By Monday night, the look at H5 is much improved. The trough is much sharper and has a less progressive look, but we have a long way to go to make something meaningful out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 The trough digs all the way to Cuba and is much sharper but it's "too little, too late" this run. We'll see what the rest of the 12z suite shows. Certainly was a small step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Through Monday looks like maybe some mix and 1-3"/2-4" of snow There is no mix through 102 from Monmouth County N . At 102 the 0 line at 850 gets to C Monmouth . The city Long Island and points N are fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Snowmap for fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 There is also a small burst on Tuesday morning with almost some type of inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 QPF is 0.50"+ except for E LI which is 0.75"+. Northern PA, Most of Upstate NY and into Western New England are 1.00"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Snow maps on SV show 2-4" for the city and they gradually go up from there to as much as 12"+ for the Western LHV and NW of the Pocnons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Snow maps on SV show 2-4" for the city and they gradually go up from there to as much as 12"+ for the Western LHV and NW of the Pocnons. Seems to be a trend to a stronger coastal. This run looks a bit different than previous, let's see what the rest of the 12z data shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Don't expect great ratios either, 850mb temps are in the 0c to -4c areawide until Tuesday when most of the snow is already gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We are ertainly heading in a more realistic direction ( 2-4 3-6 over a period of 48 hours). Sad but probably realistic unless wave #2 is stronger than progged. probably by the Euro tomorrow will know where we stand, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Seems to be a trend to a stronger coastal. This run looks a bit different than previous, let's see what the rest of the 12z data shows. It's odd to see so many pieces stay seperated. If everything was able to consolidate a bit more you would likely be left with one heck of a storm. It's hard for me to remember the details but I'm fairly certain that PDII had this appearance of two lighter events a few days out, we all know how that ended up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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