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Late Weekend Storm Threat


IsentropicLift

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Personally, I think this is spot on.  It is in the AFD which is read by enthusiasts only and uses the word potential.

As you say, potential is the key word. They also note the uncertainty. What should they do -- ignore the whole thing? What's worse is some media outlets downplaying the whole possibility. In the end, these outlets might be right, but one morning host was talking about "snow squalls" and "nothing major" for Monday as though it's an established fact. To me, that's much more problematic than Upton writing about potential in a release that no one but government officials, meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts reads.

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ok we will see how spot on it is at verification time -which BTW is still 5 days away- also what happens if during the next couple of sets of model runs the qpf gets cut back ? Upton flip flopping time just like they did with the last storm mentioning accumulations several days in advance.

Mini rant here but what do you expect them to say? They are required to make a forecast for this period. Should they just say "there is a potential for some type of weather maybe sorta next week". People kill them when they do that too. Saying that there is the POTENTIAL for 8 inches of snow in the CWA is accurate. There is that potential according to models. We all know the models will bounce around the next few days. Nothing anyone can do about that. At least they are making a forecast.

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PD II is an analog ? Interesting....12Z Nam at out of range shows very little precip going into Monday FWIW

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015020512&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=310

yikes, don't use the NAM at 24 hrs let alone 84.   Appears to be 2 waves now, Euro and GFS seem more gung ho on wave 2 which would be later Monday into Tuesday.   First wave may miss north IMO

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yikes, don't use the NAM at 24 hrs let alone 84.   Appears to be 2 waves now, Euro and GFS seem more gung ho on wave 2 which would be later Monday into Tuesday.   First wave may miss north IMO

why do you think I put out of range and FWIW in my statement ? :facepalm:12Z GFS is rolling in now

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Snow maps on SV show 2-4" for the city and they gradually go up from there to as much as 12"+ for the Western LHV and NW of the Pocnons.

Seems to be a trend to a stronger coastal. This run looks a bit different than previous, let's see what the rest of the 12z data shows.

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Seems to be a trend to a stronger coastal. This run looks a bit different than previous, let's see what the rest of the 12z data shows.

It's odd to see so many pieces stay seperated. If everything was able to consolidate a bit more you would likely be left with one heck of a storm. It's hard for me to remember the details but I'm fairly certain that PDII had this appearance of two lighter events a few days out, we all know how that ended up.

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