nyblizz44 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro has some snow with the 1st wave but the 2nd wave has a great hit for the NYC area northward.so that would be for Sunday night into Monday I'm guessing in which case we are starting to develop consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 so that would be for Sunday night into Monday I'm guessing in which case we are starting to develop consistency Yes, sunday into Monday. The 1st wave is more north than the 2nd wave and just gives NYC some light snow with more to the north. The 2nd wave gets the City pretty good.It snows from hour 84- 132 from NYC northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yes, sunday into Monday. The 1st wave is more north than the 2nd wave and just gives NYC some light snow with more to the north. The 2nd wave gets the City pretty good.It snows from hour 84- 132 from NYC northward48 hrs. I'm sure that's off and on but the one constant has been the length of the storm. I'll sign up for that even if its under foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GooGoo Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro has 15-20" running total from NYC north thru Hudson Valley through Tuesday morning. Lowering to about 5" south to Southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro has 15-20" running total from NYC north thru Hudson Valley through Tuesday morning. Lowering to about 5" south to Southern NJ. philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro is light snow from 12z Sunday for a few hours. Probably 1-3". Then it snows from 6z Monday to 18z Tuesday with the area over 1" precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro has 15-20" running total from NYC north thru Hudson Valley through Tuesday morning. Lowering to about 5" south to Southern NJ.that high? You have a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro is light snow from 12z Sunday for a few hours. Probably 1-3". Then it snows from 6z Monday to 18z Tuesday with the area over 1" precip. Monday into Tuesday is the big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 that high? You have a snow map? Stormvista has 10-12 inches areawide. I think Eurowx has more. It counts ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Monday into Tuesday is the big hit.I thought you said Sunday into Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Monday into Tuesday is the big hit.Yeah, the long duration is what's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yeah, the long duration is what's weird.The whole evolution is weird. The storm begins to rapidly intensify and then it slides due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I thought you said Sunday into Monday? It basically snows from Late Saturday into Tuesday with a lull in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 00z ECM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 For the European showing 12 or more for the majority of the area, it's disturbingly quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 For the European showing 12 or more for the majority of the area, it's disturbingly quiet.I think now that we have gotten our snow over the past 10 days, people are more relaxed and able to enjoy things more...much less desperate lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 it could also be that the euro's epic collapse during the blizzard has people less confident in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Watch it nail this storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 For the European showing 12 or more for the majority of the area, it's disturbingly quiet. After the last 2 debacles and the way this one is also ticking North, wouldn't you be a little gun-shy too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 06z GFS didnt tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 06z GFS didnt tick north Looks similiar to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Upton is already mentioninb 8 or more inches possible from Sunday through Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 For the European showing 12 or more for the majority of the area, it's disturbingly quiet. Because it's still far from the event and people are resting up before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Is it true Upton has snow totals for this storm already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Upton: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN STALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL THEN HEAD NORTHEAST PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6"+ OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL FALL OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF...AS THE 00Z GFS HAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH LESS QPF THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE H5 TROUGH...WHICH IS WEAKER IN THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THIS TROUGH FROM RUN TO RUN IN BOTH MODELS. MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE. rolleyes.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Is it true Upton has snow totals for this storm already? No. http://www.weather.gov/okx/stormtotalsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 No. http://www.weather.gov/okx/stormtotalsnow Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Upton Just updated their AFD a few minutes ago - IMO throwing around snow totals in this very complex setup this early is nonsense . They are once again leaning heavily on the GFS which give close to 0.90 total qpf 143 FXUS61 KOKX 051221 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 721 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN STALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL THEN HEAD NORTHEAST PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 8"+ OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL FALL OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER WE RECEIVE 8"+ IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD TO CONSIDER WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES IF IT FALLS IN A PERIOD LONGER THAN 24 HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF...AS THE 00Z GFS HAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH LESS QPF THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE H5 TROUGH...WHICH IS WEAKER IN THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THIS TROUGH FROM RUN TO RUN IN BOTH MODELS. MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Upton Just updated their AFD a few minutes ago - IMO throwing around snow totals in this very complex setup this early is nonsense . They are once again leaning heavily on the GFS which give close to 0.90 total qpf 143 FXUS61 KOKX 051221 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 721 AM EST THU FEB 5 2015 LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL THEN STALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL THEN HEAD NORTHEAST PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 8"+ OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL FALL OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW...QUESTION REMAINS AS TO WHETHER WE RECEIVE 8"+ IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD TO CONSIDER WATCHES/WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES IF IT FALLS IN A PERIOD LONGER THAN 24 HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF...AS THE 00Z GFS HAS ABOUT HALF AN INCH LESS QPF THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE H5 TROUGH...WHICH IS WEAKER IN THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A WEAKER SURFACE LOW. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO WEAKEN THIS TROUGH FROM RUN TO RUN IN BOTH MODELS. MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. Personally, I think this is spot on. It is in the AFD which is read by enthusiasts only and uses the word potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Personally, I think this is spot on. It is in the AFD which is read by enthusiasts only and uses the word potential. ok we will see how spot on it is at verification time -which BTW is still 5 days away- also what happens if during the next couple of sets of model runs the qpf gets cut back ? Upton flip flopping time just like they did with the last storm mentioning accumulations several days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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