IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The vort max that is responsible for this is still hundreds of miles offshore into the Pacific and undoubtably in a poor sampling area. Doesn't come onshore until Saturday night. I would think the 00z runs Saturday night should have a much better handle. That means we still have the next two to three days worth of runs that will likely jump around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Just taking a guess, the GGEM has the most correct idea, and not because it has the most QPF, but because there is no reason why the models which were digging the trough to central Florida are suddenly kicking it East. That idea has a lot of 12z Euro ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 A lot of the individual 12z EPS members blow up the coastal like the GGEM shows. There are four that are coastal huggers and several others that track inside the benchmark. The ones that blow it up, are they cold enough? One my fears is that the initial overrunning trends weaker, but by the time the ULL bombs, the HP is sliding east and we warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The ones that blow it up, are they cold enough? One my fears is that the initial overrunning trends weaker, but by the time the ULL bombs, the HP is sliding east and we warmI don't see that happening. In fact I see the overrunning trending stronger, just like the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We still have a good 3-4 weeks before sun angle becomes an issue. Yea, if you are bringing up the sun angle before March 1, you need to check yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The vort max that is responsible for this is still hundreds of miles offshore into the Pacific and undoubtably in a poor sampling area. Doesn't come onshore until Saturday night. I would think the 00z runs Saturday night should have a much better handle. That means we still have the next two to three days worth of runs that will likely jump around. God let's hope it's not that late, that's about 48 hours before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 God let's hope it's not that late, that's about 48 hours beforeIt's pretty far out there, Saturday night might even be a little generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 according to this 7 day qpf total someone is going to have alot of snow on the ground next week at this time in the metro http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1423092349 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yea, if you are bringing up the sun angle before March 1, you need to check yourself. Pretty sure the original comment was tongue in cheek and not meant to be seriously debated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Historically, this is our wheelhouse. We have more big snow storms between 2/5 and 2/14 than any other time in the winter in the last 35-40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Nothing on the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Historically, this is our wheelhouse. We have more big snow storms between 2/5 and 2/14 than any other time in the winter in the last 35-40 years. 1960...3/3-4.........14.5" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 1961...2/3-4.........17.4" 1964...1/12-13.....12.5" 1967...2/7............12.5" 1969...2/9-10.......15.3" 1978...1/19-20.....13.6" 1978...2/6-7.........17.7" 1979...2/19..........12.7" 1983...2/11-12.....17.6" 1993...3/13-14.....10.6" 1994...2/11..........12.8" 1995...2/4............10.8" 1996...1/7-8.........20.2" 1996...2/16-17.....10.7" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...2/16-17.....19.8" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2004...1/28..........10.4" 2005...1/22-23.....13.8" 2006...2/11-12.....26.9" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...2/9-10.......10.0" 2010...2/25-26.....20.9" 2010...12/26-27...20.0" 2011...1/26-27.....19.0" 2013...2/8-9.........11.4" 2014...1/21..........11.5" 2014...2/13............9.5"/3.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 So we can expect snow from Sunday night into Monday at this time. I'm hearing lots of versions and would like a idea what might be the end results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 1960...3/3-4.........14.5" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 1961...2/3-4.........17.4" 1964...1/12-13.....12.5" 1967...2/7............12.5" 1969...2/9-10.......15.3" 1978...1/19-20.....13.6" 1978...2/6-7.........17.7" 1979...2/19..........12.7" 1983...2/11-12.....17.6" 1993...3/13-14.....10.6" 1994...2/11..........12.8" 1995...2/4............10.8" 1996...1/7-8.........20.2" 1996...2/16-17.....10.7" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...2/16-17.....19.8" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2004...1/28..........10.4" 2005...1/22-23.....13.8" 2006...2/11-12.....26.9" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...2/9-10.......10.0" 2010...2/25-26.....20.9" 2010...12/26-27...20.0" 2011...1/26-27.....19.0" 2013...2/8-9.........11.4" 2014...1/21..........11.5" 2014...2/13............9.5"/3.0" Thanks Uncle W , I did not have the data, just memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Thanks Uncle W , I did not have the data, just memory my memory goes back a long way...54 years ago on Feb. 4th 1961 I was playing in 25-30" of snow on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 So we can expect snow from Sunday night into Monday at this time. I'm hearing lots of versions and would like a idea what might be the end results. follow along. Situation is still fluid and subject to change 4 days out. As it stands now, could be snow at some point Sunday-Tue with some breaks in b/w each shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 my memory goes back a long way...54 years ago on Feb. 4th 1961 I was playing in 25-30" of snow on the ground... My memory does not go back that far but pretty close, just a few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 my memory goes back a long way...54 years ago on Feb. 4th 1961 I was playing in 25-30" of snow on the ground... so was I Unc in New Jersey - that one rates number 2 right behind the Blizzard of '96 http://www.weathernj.com/major-new-jersey-snow-storms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 my memory goes back a long way...54 years ago on Feb. 4th 1961 I was playing in 25-30" of snow on the ground... I was two months short of my 14th birthday and loved walking the great wide white tundra of 75th street in dyker heights, Brooklyn. Great storm season 60-61. Rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I was two months short of my 14th birthday and loved walking the great wide white tundra of 75th street in dyker heights, Brooklyn. Great storm season 60-61. Rich I got sick the next day which was a Sunday and couldn't go out and play until Thursday...I broke my sled from over use... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 3 waves all of them jammed together all of them with very nice surface pressures -no arguments on this this is the 18z GEFS ENS loop Saturday 7:00pm -Tuesday 1:00am Cold sector holds for NYC...no arguments for the most part last three frames spell our trouble ATM 500 vort a bit to far east on Tuesday 7:00am Little QPF Atlantic Low pressure prog (3) lows???? Monday 7:00pm My take- Cold will bring us snow-- to expect all three shortwaves to travel 3,000 miles intact??? not so sure bout that you can see the model can't handle the unsampled logjam at this point three swings into a nice cold air mass lets hope we don't strike out here dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 2015-02-04_20-34-16.jpg 2015-02-04_20-34-34.jpg Great chart it really show how global warming has shorten the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Great chart it really show how global warming has shorten the winter. Perhaps there's another thread for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Perhaps there's another thread for that... yea this one is so busy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Great chart it really show how global warming has shorten the winter. Good observation: One 6"+ snowstorm in Nov/April in the last 50 years vs. 10 such storms in the 96 years prior to that certainly seems compelling. However, I don't know if the sample size is significant enough. Also, didn't Oct 2009 (Halloween storm) or Nov 2012 (after Sandy) get to 6"? They did in the Edison area, iirc. And if they did (or were really close, such that maybe the 6" criterion isn't the best cutoff), that's 3 in the last 50 years vs. 10 in the previous 96, which is a much closer ratio - and with a small sample size, I'd wager both are not statistically different. At least worth considering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Good observation: One 6"+ snowstorm in Nov/April in the last 50 years vs. 10 such storms in the 96 years prior to that certainly seems compelling. However, I don't know if the sample size is significant enough. Also, didn't Oct 2009 (Halloween storm) or Nov 2012 (after Sandy) get to 6"? They did in the Edison area, iirc. And if they did (or were really close, such that maybe the 6" criterion isn't the best cutoff), that's 3 in the last 50 years vs. 10 in the previous 96, which is a much closer ratio - and with a small sample size, I'd wager both are not statistically different. At least worth considering... That's the problem, weather data history is too short to see long term patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Great chart it really show how global warming has shorten the winter. Nice write-up by the CWG guys regarding a similar theme in DC (loss of early and late season snows) http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/does-the-less-snow-more-blizzards-global-warming-theory-hold-up-in-washington-dc/2013/02/20/3de44236-7acf-11e2-9a75-dab0201670da_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Good observation: One 6"+ snowstorm in Nov/April in the last 50 years vs. 10 such storms in the 96 years prior to that certainly seems compelling. However, I don't know if the sample size is significant enough. Also, didn't Oct 2009 (Halloween storm) or Nov 2012 (after Sandy) get to 6"? They did in the Edison area, iirc. And if they did (or were really close, such that maybe the 6" criterion isn't the best cutoff), that's 3 in the last 50 years vs. 10 in the previous 96, which is a much closer ratio - and with a small sample size, I'd wager both are not statistically different. At least worth considering... This is NYC only. Oct 2009 had 0.0" in NYC. Oct 2011 had 2.9" and November 2012 had 4.7". Some mod should move this all into the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Globel warming increases snowfall since it increases the preciptable water in the atmosphere. So snowfall events are more intense it is a simple as that. As for the upcoming storm if the temperatures rise as fast as they did in NYC today to our south it will enhance the snowfall amounts beyond the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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