Neblizzard Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 WTF? The sun angle won't be a factor for another few weeks, it's EARLY FEBRUARY. Who are these people?? We still have a good 3-4 weeks before sun angle becomes an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We still have a good 3-4 weeks before sun angle becomes an issue. and that only matters in lighter events...heavy events with cold temps it won't matter. See 4/6/82 if you are still confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Any word on Euro Ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Any word on Euro Ens? 1"+ line is into NYC and LI. Rest of NJ is .75"+ Plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 and that only matters in lighter events...heavy events with cold temps it won't matter. See 4/6/82 if you are still confused Agreed. Also April 1996 we had 7 inches at EWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick T Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That's pretty typical for them. A lot of that will fall in the mountains away from where people live. Ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick T Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Agreed. Also April 1996 we had 7 inches at EWR April '96 was no April '82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 These super duration modeled events rarely work out to actually be 48+ hrs of precip. Typically one or two shortwaves take over and the precip field becomes consolidated. Yup. Most are ignoring this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 April '96 was no April '82. 17" in a couple of hours with leaves already on the trees was pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Upton THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDINGDRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGHMOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCECONTINUES TO SHOW AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH OF THEAREA PUSHED BY A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION ISEXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUETHROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLANDMONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.THE FORECAST LIQUID EQUIVALENT RANGES BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCHAND A QUARTER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.AGAIN THERE DO REMAIN A FEW UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...IF THE HIGH IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...IT WILL PUSH THE ARCTICBOUNDARY TOO FAR SOUTH LEADING TO LESS OR NO SNOW.IF THE HIGH IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST...THE LOW WILL TRACK FURTHERNORTHER BRINGING WARMER ALOFT WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THEPRECIPITATION TYPE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN / SLEET / OR JUSTPLAIN RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Upton Pretty fair but VERY open ended. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 1"+ line is into NYC and LI. Rest of NJ is .75"+ Plenty cold. What is the timing? Midday Sun through midday Mon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 What is the timing? Midday Sun through midday Mon? Precipitation could move in as early as Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 These super duration modeled events rarely work out to actually be 48+ hrs of precip. Typically one or two shortwaves take over and the precip field becomes consolidated. DEFINITELY. In fact, I've seen potential "48 hour events", or longer, turn into 6 hour hitters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 A lot of the individual 12z EPS members blow up the coastal like the GGEM shows. There are four that are coastal huggers and several others that track inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Also the individuals are very much split on the overrunning. Some going North, some South and some big hits and everything in between. If we miss the overrunning then this event will be much shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I hope we get moderate snow from Saturday night into Tuesday morning it's very possible just not likely. Usually these frontal boundaries tend to stall and give people the same precip for days but will it be all snow for nyc? Great winter so far. Plenty of more to come I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 DEFINITELY. In fact, I've seen potential "48 hour events", or longer, turn into 6 hour hittersjust last year the GFS has a similar scenario where it was showing 72 hours of snow for nyc and it ended up getting supressed and giving mid Atlantic region a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Moderate burst of snow Sunday morning from the overrunning on the 18z GFS. Saturday is mostly dry, just flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Then a break Sunday afternoon and early evening with moderate snow moving back in between 03z and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Thanks in advance yanks for the pbp's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Sunday morning looks like 2-4" over the area. More NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The vort max is pretty far East on Monday, even more progressive than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 In any event, moderate to heavy snow for the Monday morning commute, heaviest falling between 09z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 looks like multiple waves of 2-4 inches on the GFS-great run for this subforum verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The GFS looks like the more believable scenario . Look like multiple SW swinging under the confluence . With breaks in between . The periods of snow of lesser in terms of duration but carry a more consolidated look to it . Plenty cold for everyone on the board. The 2nd SW seems to be stronger . Should be reflected in the weenie maps. This was a great run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 The differences appear to be stemming from the system over the Pacific Northwest. As that nudges East it pushes everything with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Can't miss east again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Back to the light stuff by Monday night, except for LI where it will last a bit longer. The coastal is going to be weak and well offshore. Very progressive. It's making huge run to run jumps at H5. I wouldn't take it seriously. What you can take from it is that it has two light to moderate events, one Sunday and one Monday, timed about the same. QPF is about 0.75" areawide, a bit more East and NW. Probably 6-10" total between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Back to the light stuff by Monday night, except for LI where it will last a bit longer. The coastal is going to be weak and well offshore. Very progressive. It's making huge run to run jumps at H5. I wouldn't take it seriously. What you can take from it is that it has two light to moderate events, one Sunday and one Monday, timed about the same. QPF is about 0.75" areawide, a bit more East and NW. Probably 6-10" total between the two. not bad at all considering its probably the lowest out of the ggem and euro and itself precip wise the past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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