Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 anyone got a nam snowfall map for fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 8:41 PM, IsentropicLift said: The coast flips to rain between 18z and 21z, then temps start to cool again. We knows that's probably wrong right? Sitting here today realizing the pattern we are in , you can see how that's probably an error . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Theres no QPF anyway on the NAM, still completely different than all other guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Weather.com shows a high of 40F on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:00 PM, SnoSki14 said: Weather.com shows a high of 40F on Monday.You're better than this brother... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:00 PM, SnoSki14 said: Weather.com shows a high of 40F on Monday. Yesterday's runs most likely. Machines ahead of 'em by a day as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:00 PM, SnoSki14 said: Weather.com shows a high of 40F on Monday. Did you know that all of there point and click forecasts are computer generated? They take a blend of all the latest computer guidance including the NAM, and then off air mets tweak things slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:00 PM, SnoSki14 said: Weather.com shows a high of 40F on Monday.that is by far the worst weather station. They're even worse than accuweather. Also they just model hug! Come on bro please post something that's worth our time reading it. Otherwise don't post at all - Jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:05 PM, Winter201415 said: that is by far the worst weather station. They're even worse than accuweather. Also they just model hug! Come on bro please post something that's worth our time reading it. Otherwise don't post at all - Jack Actually, they consistently do better than the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This post is not directed at anybody in particular, but, can we please stop personally attacking people. It not only is uncalled for, it likewise hurts the credibility of this entire thread and there are some excellent as well as very knowledgeable posters on here. So please, think twice before posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:13 PM, danstorm said: Actually, they consistently do better than the NWS. I don't love what they've become... of course ... but their forecasts are NOT garbage and they have some of the best mets in the biz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:13 PM, danstorm said: Actually, they consistently do better than the NWS. NWS really is whacked out I was ALL snow for Monday before the update NOW mix bag... with the MODELS trending colder! Does not make any sense at all!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:13 PM, danstorm said: I don't love what they've become... of course ... but their forecasts are NOT garbage and they have some of the best mets in the biz. To their credit, they were the first to begin slashing totals for NYC before the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:14 PM, allgame830 said: NWS really is whacked out I was ALL snow for Monday before the update NOW mix bag... with the MODELS trending colder! Does not make any sense at all!!!! utpon's AFD at 4pm today notes ice is the primary QPF type for everyone except far northern zones....almost like they're reading yesterday's models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:01 PM, USCG RS said: You're better than this brother... Just pointing it out a lot of people use the weather.com app for their forecasts, and I use the info on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:15 PM, H.E. Pennypacker said: To their credit, they were the first to begin slashing totals for NYC before the blizzard Ding ding ding. I have warmed back up to them (not for there reality crap) Looks like the south trends have legs good stuff for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Didnt read thru this thread completely so maybe it was mentioned but if you haven't seen the EPS for the 15-17th might wAnna look. Probably another tease but good strong signal for a long-duration storm. Ok, as you were.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 6:43 PM, NEG NAO said: Middlesex County should be 2 different forecast zones from the raritan river north and west and south and west of the raritan river the other zone - I live about 2 miles south of the eastern Union County border so I follow the eastern union county forecast zone On 2/6/2015 at 6:44 PM, green tube said: and just generally speaking, there's routinely a notable difference in snow totals between southern middlesex county and northern middlesex county. even just between edison and e. brunswick you always do better. Been saying that for years. I think half the time Middlesex is an outlier or discontinuous with Upton, it's because Mt. Holly doesn't have a split county. Just in the last storm, we weren't in the initial WS watch, but then were added to the warning, but I'm pretty sure if the county was split, they would've only added the northern part, since the snowfall/ice forecasts were much less in the southern half, as often happens when the mix line is across our county. However, I'd split the county from the Raritan in the east (maybe Sayreville) SW to the point where Middlesex, Somerset and Mercer all meet, i.e., Kingston, since isothermal lines are usually on a NE to SW line. On Monday, we got 3.5" of snow on the front end dump and I recall reading that most people in the southern part got 2-2.5", plus our temps never went above 32F, while I know they were above 32F in the southern part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:23 PM, Brian5671 said: utpon's AFD at 4pm today notes ice is the primary QPF type for everyone except far northern zones....almost like they're reading yesterday's models. Yea it really does not make any sense... NEG NAO is right they flip flop wayyy too much. I would say if anything the models have trended to a more snowy solution especially for the LHV which is where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:15 PM, H.E. Pennypacker said: To their credit, they were the first to begin slashing totals for NYC before the blizzardeveryone knew that We weren't getting hit that much. they got one storm right big deal. Paul Kocin days are over. And that channel is nothing but a bunch of lame shows. Come on show some real weather like in the 90's and early 2000's. Personally I don't think they are even professional! They lack a lot of meteorology terms and model hug each region. They pretty much annoy me to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:29 PM, Winter201415 said: everyone knew that We weren't getting hit that much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:29 PM, Winter201415 said: everyone knew that We weren't getting hit that much. they got one storm right big deal. Paul Kocin days are over. And that channel is nothing but a bunch of lame shows. Come on show some real weather like in the 90's and early 2000's. Personally I don't think they are even professional! They lack a lot of meteorology terms and model hug each region. They pretty much annoy me to be honest. They do hype a lot and are obsessed with drawing as much money out of weather as possible (naming winter storms, turning everything into a hashtag, constanly airing TV shows instead of live coverage), which is unfortunate because there are good mets there. For some reason, they think its a good idea to send their best mets out to do live coverage instead of having them in the office, and, you know, forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 First guess from Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I grew up watching guys like Paul Kocin, Dr. Steve Lyons and John Hope. Those guys are all long gone and it's just not the same. Plus they have so many shows on now. It's almost impossible to turn it on and get a quick forecast unless something major is going on. Sort of like how MTV no longer plays music videos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:29 PM, Winter201415 said: everyone knew that We weren't getting hit that much. they got one storm right big deal. Paul Kocin days are over. And that channel is nothing but a bunch of lame shows. Come on show some real weather like in the 90's and early 2000's. Personally I don't think they are even professional! They lack a lot of meteorology terms and model hug each region. They pretty much annoy me to be honest. Right, I guess 30 inches wasn't getting hit, or 20-30 inches.... They didn't really come close with long island for most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The shortwaves are starting to come onshore. We should have a better sampling tonight for the 00z runs and everything should be fully sampled by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 9:39 PM, wthrmn654 said: Right, I guess 30 inches wasn't getting hit, or 20-30 inches.... They didn't really come close with long island for most parteveryone on here knew that nyc was on the edge and 8-12 was a good call but we all knew that Long Island was going to get hammered. It was sort of like winter storm n3mo but it was a colder storm so nyc never saw rain on the onset. GFS rolling! Yanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Gfs is going to bump south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Mt. Holly slightly less bullish than Upton with snow and ice amounts at the borders of the CWAs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Light snow possible all day tomorrow, best chance North of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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