IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Flurries possible on Saturday for northern sections and then a little better chance on Saturday night of somethng a bit more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Slower again, the activity is a bit more robust over central New England but it doesn't really mean much for our sensible weather on Sunday unless you're in the LHV where things look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 More phasing this run between the pieces over the Mid-West and the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 By Sunday night the frontal boundary is about 30 miles further South than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The ticks south continues on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The surface low is about 25 miles southwest, 09z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Freezing rain on Monday morning for all of NJ, NYC, Westchester and the Western 2/3rds of LI. Monmouth is in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Hr 75 very close to heavy snow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 850's try and cool while the surface ticks a bit North. Icing would end in the city between 7-10AM but continue just NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 nyc gets no snow on this run, just like the past several runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:54 PM, Allsnow said: Hr 75 very close to heavy snow for nyc It's freezing rain, 850's are over Bergen, Passaic and Morris Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:56 PM, forkyfork said: nyc gets no snow on this run, just like the past several runs Exactly, This was just a bad post On 2/6/2015 at 3:54 PM, Allsnow said: Hr 75 very close to heavy snow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:55 PM, IsentropicLift said: 850's try and cool while the surface ticks a bit North. Icing would end in the city between 7-10AM but continue just NW of the city. Mid level warmth kills us. We need that low to the south to closes off or have the boundary further south sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 where is the ice/ snow line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 0.50"+ LE, nearly all IP/ZR for the I-80 corridor, ice to rain for the city and LI and mostly snow for the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:56 PM, IsentropicLift said: Exactly, This was just a bad post north jersey is a bad spot for this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS not far off from a good solution for the area...we need the the two shortwaves to consolidate more and we can get a decent coastal...pretty sloppy phase right now but the shortwaves are still not in a well-sampled region. numerous run to run changes occuring. I only think by tomorrow night's runs is when things start getting clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:57 PM, Brian5671 said: where is the ice/ snow line? Makes it right to extreme SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:58 PM, Allsnow said: north jersey is a bad spot for this... I'm still not convinced that we've reached the final outcome. Too many run to run differences that will have large implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With the surface low exiting the delmarva/S NJ chances are nobody north of TTN goes above freezing...but not sure we see much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:45 PM, IsentropicLift said: Flurries possible on Saturday for northern sections and then a little better chance on Saturday night of somethng a bit more organized. That's not flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 SV maps actually have 4-6" for extrmeme northern NJ spilling towards SW CT on the backend. Interior New England around southern VT are 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There is a south movement on all the models and just like what happened a few weeks ago when it went north. we have quite a bit of time to get a snowy solution for all of NY, NJ, etc. The thermal boundaries have not kept up with the actual position of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 For those without SV access, the usually very conservative snow maps have 4"-6" into NYC and Queens. 2"-4" for western LI. 6"-8"+ for CT. 2"-4" for EWR and NWNJ. Nothing south of that. Also, sleet and ice for everyone and then eventually plain rain for NYC/LI and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 4:01 PM, Allsnow said: That's not flurries Less than 0.10" LE in six hours, call it whatever you want. And we're right on the edge as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Eh still a lot of time, no need to worry yet. At least it trended in the right direction. If it does warm I hope it's enouugh for rain, ZR is just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 4:02 PM, ag3 said: For those without SV access, the usually very conservative snow maps have 4"-6" into NYC and Queens. 2"-4" for western LI. 6"-8"+ for CT. 2"-4" for EWR and NWNJ. Nothing south of that. Also, sleet and ice for everyone and then eventually plain rain for NYC/LI and south. Impossible yanksfan said no snow in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 On 2/6/2015 at 3:59 PM, IsentropicLift said: Makes it right to extreme SW CT. Unless you have 1 hour maps, you can't possibly know what the temps are right in the middle of the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The 12z GFS has a tough commute for NYC Metro Monday morning with Sunday night freezing rain through the Monday AM rush. Very strong surface CAD and warming just above the deck isn't what you want to see. I hope this changes before then. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs072hr_sfc_ptyp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 excellent trend on the GFS last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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