The Iceman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM is so far north that we would make a run at 50 and sunny on sunday. 10x better than another 34 and rain storm, i hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 NAM is so far north that we would make a run at 50 and sunny on sunday. 10x better than another 34 and rain storm, i hope it verifies. I know it probably matters very little but I heard they were sending planes into the Pacific tonight and I was wondering if any of tonight's runs will have this data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I know it probably matters very little but I heard they were sending planes into the Pacific tonight and I was wondering if any of tonight's runs will have this data? I didn't hear of this but typically when they do send planes to gather data in the pacific it's typically for the 00z suite. But I don't know for sure, perhaps Ray or another met could give a definitive answer. I think it definitely would make a difference if they do have samples from the plane, we've seen how drastic the changes in the models have been once the players get on the field this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 0z NAM is awesome! Mixing to the tughill lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 0z NAM is awesome! Mixing to the tughill lolWell based off of the last storm the nam should come close to verifying. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Well based off of the last storm the nam should come close to verifying. Bring on spring! Curious if this storm can take nam track and fail spectacularly if it might create a more favorable track for the next vort in line day 6. Failing are way to success might be the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS Shifted south from 18z but still has a ways to go to put us back in the game... looks good for 34 and rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Curious if this storm can take nam track and fail spectacularly if it might create a more favorable track for the next vort in line day 6. Failing are way to success might be the solution. Oh wonderful another one to screw everyone outside of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 No Euro love? Came wayyyyyy South....exits the slp off the NC/VA border. Still warm but figured some folks would be interested to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 No Euro love? Came wayyyyyy South....exits the slp off the NC/VA border. Still warm but figured some folks would be interested to see. Warm and weak, 0.19 at TTN over 24-30 hours, all rain or freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Warm and weak, 0.19 at TTN over 24-30 hours, all rain or freezing rainChances of that happening?I dont recall too many rain to fzra scenarios. Usually the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Chances of that happening? I dont recall too many rain to fzra scenarios. Usually the opposite. We're not set in stone with this yet, but right now any snowy solutions are hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We're not set in stone with this yet, but right now any snowy solutions are hard to find. Lol You have a way ray.......classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 This is going to end up just like the last storm. The models have overdone the cold push in the med/long range all winter and I expect the same thing to happen with this as we move closer with a wet outcome for our area and another New England cash-in. trust the first instinct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We're not set in stone with this yet, but right now any snowy solutions are hard to find. This forum could really use some more analysis from you. You must have a lot of knowledge as a Met and your experience with NJ weather. Anyway I welcome any input you offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS is close to an ice storm TTN north. At least starts as light frz then temps get to I think 34 then ends as frz. I think that snow is mostly off the table here, but frz rain could be a threat if the cold is stronger than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS came south for some false hope. Also a significant ice storm in Bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I am tired of cold with no snow, bring on spring so we can save a few bucks on heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 RGEM moving south also. Liking the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The Euro should wake some of you up, nothing very interesting yet but very close to some significant frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro so far south surface low passes DC, 2-4" northern burbs and 1-2" Philly + ice city north. Reminds me of the fisherman state farm commercial now "ooh you almost have it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Can the Euro be any more erratic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Models have been screwing us w/everything...not sure what to think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Can the Euro be any more erratic? it may be erratic or could it be newer data.....i guess tonight's runs will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'm not even bothering with the euro for awhile. Haven't been since the "historic blizzard " Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro and NAM are about 700-800 miles apart. So much for model consensus this close in. ( Love ending sentence in a prep.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro snow maps are garbage, 850s are warm. Not sure if they just suck or think sleet = snow, but there is not a flake of snow on the Euro at TTN, for example. All sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 I'm not even bothering with the euro for awhile. Haven't been since the "historic blizzard " Sent from my iPhone It was the last to come north with the Groundhog Day storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro snow maps are garbage, 850s are warm. Not sure if they just suck or think sleet = snow, but there is not a flake of snow on the Euro at TTN, for example. All sleet/freezing rain. What kind of qpf is that showing? Looked like GFS for Abe was like .30" freezing rain, with front end and back end rain showers Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 ECM also is lacking for qpf must be around .30" for Allentown Nuisance system now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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