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Storm potential Sunday-Monday, 2/8-9/2015


famartin

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All models keyed in to the area between the Delmarva and Cape Hatteras as to where the low tracks off the coast. We had a similar spread for the Super Bowl system at about this range and it actually ended up coming off the South Jersey coast. In all fairness, we had the UKMET as an extreme Northern 'outlier' with the SB storm but that model was closest to verifying (along with the NAM once it got into range). Do we have an extreme Northern outlier modeled for this coming system? I couldn't find any. Which tells me maybe this one doesn't trend as far North. The HP and PV to the North should also help keep this from going North, one would think, though I've seen it all this year.

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Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 18z data continues a somewhat colder solution with GFS/NAM data

It has snow arriving by Sunday morning at 6am continuing at various rates with some mixing at times with sleet and for a couple hours ZR through 2am Tuesday. Temps remaining in the 20's during the entire storm.

Overall about 5" to 7" of total snow/sleet before ending

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NAO last year at this time. We've seen nothing near these numbers this year.

2014 1 30 -0.109

2014 1 31 -0.617

2014 2 1 -0.896

2014 2 2 -0.989

2014 2 3 -1.071

2014 2 4 -1.060

2014 2 5 -0.870

2014 2 6 -0.678

2014 2 7 -0.724

2014 2 8 -0.826

2014 2 9 -0.853

2014 2 10 -0.727

2014 2 11 -0.786

2014 2 12 -1.064

2014 2 13 -1.097

2014 2 14 -0.794

2014 2 15 -0.415

2014 2 16 -0.310

2014 2 17 -0.099

2014 2 18 -0.098

2014 2 19 -0.198

2014 2 20 -0.092

2014 2 21 0.004

I dare say if we had these type of NAO numbers this year a few of these past storms would or could have been wins depending on the other signals

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Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 18z data continues a somewhat colder solution with GFS/NAM data

It has snow arriving by Sunday morning at 6am continuing at various rates with some mixing at times with sleet and for a couple hours ZR through 2am Tuesday. Temps remaining in the 20's during the entire storm.

Overall about 5" to 7" of total snow/sleet before ending

Almost what the models had last storm..temps teens 10-15"...2.5 days later 1" or less snow to rain 40s in Delco

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Euro is 6-12" North of the PA Turnpike with lesser amounts South of there BUT it is still trending North. It has, however, keyed in on the Delmarva (as have other models save for the GGEM and NAVGEM which are off of Hatteras) as the area where the slp will depart the coast but watch for more ticks North as has been the trend this winter. Havent seen the UKMET but it appears the Euro/GFS duo are leading the way as far as the Northern track.

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This thing has everything to be complete failure for us again. Even the NY people should be in "paranoid-mode"...it's going to be Bos event yet again. Good for them though..

The initial overrunning is kaput for you guys and it may be for us up here too, hell I'm not even sure places like BDL and BOS will do too well on that either but I have no concerns really on the 2nd part of the event, I think NYC and the northern parts of this sub forum are going to do well because that high by then is in a good spot, the north ensembles are predominantly with the first part of the event not the 2nd part.

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The "north trend" on models just cannot be denied! It has really been fascinating to watch the model struggles. Calling out the Euro (although none has been stellar) in the mid-range time frame - with the upcoming threat it once again has modeled the cold air too south and thus the baroclinic zone will likely be 100 miles north of where it is with last nights 0z run. Leading once again to a more wet than white scenario


 

 

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