Heisy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I know its the DGEX but merely pointing out that wave 1 misses us completely to the North and wave 2 (coastal) misses us to the South. Well, it clips us with some precip but it is warm. I have more faith that I'll win the lottery tonight than the DGEX verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 NAVGEM has a similar track to the GFS, takes the slp off the Delmarva. I feel like we were just down this same road, same number of days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 All models keyed in to the area between the Delmarva and Cape Hatteras as to where the low tracks off the coast. We had a similar spread for the Super Bowl system at about this range and it actually ended up coming off the South Jersey coast. In all fairness, we had the UKMET as an extreme Northern 'outlier' with the SB storm but that model was closest to verifying (along with the NAM once it got into range). Do we have an extreme Northern outlier modeled for this coming system? I couldn't find any. Which tells me maybe this one doesn't trend as far North. The HP and PV to the North should also help keep this from going North, one would think, though I've seen it all this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 18z data continues a somewhat colder solution with GFS/NAM data It has snow arriving by Sunday morning at 6am continuing at various rates with some mixing at times with sleet and for a couple hours ZR through 2am Tuesday. Temps remaining in the 20's during the entire storm. Overall about 5" to 7" of total snow/sleet before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Its only fair, PHL beat BOS last winter. Yes We did thus far we are off by 350 miles after the frustration gotta keep watch because a slight shift 250 miles we are in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 NAO last year at this time. We've seen nothing near these numbers this year. 2014 1 30 -0.109 2014 1 31 -0.617 2014 2 1 -0.896 2014 2 2 -0.989 2014 2 3 -1.071 2014 2 4 -1.060 2014 2 5 -0.870 2014 2 6 -0.678 2014 2 7 -0.724 2014 2 8 -0.826 2014 2 9 -0.853 2014 2 10 -0.727 2014 2 11 -0.786 2014 2 12 -1.064 2014 2 13 -1.097 2014 2 14 -0.794 2014 2 15 -0.415 2014 2 16 -0.310 2014 2 17 -0.099 2014 2 18 -0.098 2014 2 19 -0.198 2014 2 20 -0.092 2014 2 21 0.004 I dare say if we had these type of NAO numbers this year a few of these past storms would or could have been wins depending on the other signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Wow, I didn't realize that. You have any approx. numbers? BOS 58.9, PHL 68.0. Granted, usually BOS beats PHL by more than that, but its pretty weird that they beat BOS at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 18z data continues a somewhat colder solution with GFS/NAM data It has snow arriving by Sunday morning at 6am continuing at various rates with some mixing at times with sleet and for a couple hours ZR through 2am Tuesday. Temps remaining in the 20's during the entire storm. Overall about 5" to 7" of total snow/sleet before ending Almost what the models had last storm..temps teens 10-15"...2.5 days later 1" or less snow to rain 40s in Delco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 BOS 58.9, PHL 68.0. Granted, usually BOS beats PHL by more than that, but its pretty weird that they beat BOS at all. I must have forgotten a storm or two that I missed out on a little further north. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 I must have forgotten a storm or two that I missed out on a little further north. Thanks. Yeah, central Jersey was comparatively shafted, the 'rents had 54.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 00z GFS is a solid 4 to 8 region wide save for south jersey. Temps look good too. The timing of the high right now is just perfect, I don't think we have to worry about a north trend if that stays. If it continues to hold where it's currently modeled, I think a slight shift south is possible imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ECM like a clock ticked about 25 miles north again NYC and SNE crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 thanks... so 6" or so nw burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 thanks... so 6" or so nw burbs? Sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sounds about rightthanks again...glad someone is keeping us updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 thanks again... glad someone is keeping us updated! Eurowx maps are 3" south Philly to 12" northeast Bucks. Maybe it actually held since 12z but I feel zero confidence in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro is 6-12" North of the PA Turnpike with lesser amounts South of there BUT it is still trending North. It has, however, keyed in on the Delmarva (as have other models save for the GGEM and NAVGEM which are off of Hatteras) as the area where the slp will depart the coast but watch for more ticks North as has been the trend this winter. Havent seen the UKMET but it appears the Euro/GFS duo are leading the way as far as the Northern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This will probably be the third storm in three weeks to have me forecasted with 12"+ 24 hours prior to the event only to get a sloppy 3". I wont get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ECM like a clock ticked about 25 miles north again NYC and SNE crushed As I thought see nothing has changed fast progressive flow that bends north in time. Considering this set up I am kind of Meh on the weekend early next week event for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 still heading in with low confidence with this setup. i'd rather be surprised than fall into any 12" snow maps mind set again 3 days out. the other events burned out my weenie snow map brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This thing has everything to be complete failure for us again. Even the NY people should be in "paranoid-mode"...it's going to be Bos event yet again. Good for them though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This has the looks of another clipper type system, yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 This thing has everything to be complete failure for us again. Even the NY people should be in "paranoid-mode"...it's going to be Bos event yet again. Good for them though.. The initial overrunning is kaput for you guys and it may be for us up here too, hell I'm not even sure places like BDL and BOS will do too well on that either but I have no concerns really on the 2nd part of the event, I think NYC and the northern parts of this sub forum are going to do well because that high by then is in a good spot, the north ensembles are predominantly with the first part of the event not the 2nd part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 12z GFS is north, low is over Pittsburgh Sunday evening. Rain to the NY border in western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Still a couple of days to get PHL close to 50 degrees SUN, 50 degrees close to Baltimore now on the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well that ended the threat abruptly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Well that ended the threat abruptly. In NYC forum some are seeing similarities to PDII. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 In NYC forum some are seeing similarities to PDII. Lol I avoid that forum at all cost besides a selected few...I'd rather go down south to the MA forum. But yeah, zero hope here...slop at best is my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The "north trend" on models just cannot be denied! It has really been fascinating to watch the model struggles. Calling out the Euro (although none has been stellar) in the mid-range time frame - with the upcoming threat it once again has modeled the cold air too south and thus the baroclinic zone will likely be 100 miles north of where it is with last nights 0z run. Leading once again to a more wet than white scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 i think tonight's runs will show if there are any changes to be (which it doesn't look like to us) since there should be better sampling of the players at hand......if not we still have a few more weeks.......it only takes one good storm to salvage a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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