famartin Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro says it's still on. euro2-9.png Suddenly I want to post that "Go home Euro, you're drunk" map from last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 White gold baby. Have 100 hours of OT so far since December. But by this time last year I was already at 200 Sent from my iPhone 38hrs O/T since Jan 1st, 814hrs O/T for all of 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro says it's still on. euro2-9.png Congrats Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro says it's still on. Notice that map and compare 36 hours ago shifted 75-85 miles north. It's not going the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Notice that map and compare 36 hours ago shifted 75-85 miles north. It's not going the right way.Agreed....this threat died a rotten death at 12z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 i heard from the MA forum that the euro ensembles are more south than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 i heard from the MA forum that the euro ensembles are more south than the opBased on the euros track record this winter, im not sure just how much this helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Based on the euros track record this winter, im not sure just how much this helps us. You just never know when it will flip. So that is why I stay up late sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Notice that map and compare 36 hours ago shifted 75-85 miles north. It's not going the right way. Agreed....this threat died a rotten death at 12z imo. Jesus Christ, it gives both of you 7-9 inches or so and somehow it's "rotten." Not every storm is going to be a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Jesus Christ, it gives both of you 7-9 inches or so and somehow it's "rotten." Not every storm is going to be a HECS. ha ha ha Maybe they should join the Mid-Atlantic crew. They'll fit right in! ha ha ha (just messin with ya guys!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Jesus Christ, it gives both of you 7-9 inches or so and somehow it's "rotten." Not every storm is going to be a HECS. It's just that Euro track record lately has reduced snowfall to almost zero as the event approaches. Trend is your friend. On the other hand, there was a mention that the Euro ensembles were south of the operational. Will have to watch at least another run - oh joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I will frame that map and hang it on the wall if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 is the first vort even on the continental us/canada landmass yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Jesus Christ, it gives both of you 7-9 inches or so and somehow it's "rotten." Not every storm is going to be a HECS.Its all about the trends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's too early to get worked up over such details, but...it would be a crying shame if we'd have to deal with warm 850's and a sloppy mess again after all this cold, and the cold being modelled following the event. This has been the case all winter...after weeks since later December why should this change now... I am heading into this event with much trepidation as I am with every event going forward. Models are nice to look at AKA 22" in one run from GFS for ABE but when reality comes it is far from this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Its all about the trends.... Hang in there the Euro ensembles were south of the operational. At least worth one look at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GFS is a mess....hp pulling out as storm moves in. So much for that high being in an optimal position. Looks like taint to rain for many this run. Not liking the trends on the GFS at all. No Blocking... NAO not favorable once again. A case where the NAO is negative the high is told to stay put and the storm comes with the cold in place and we would get hammered with snow not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro says it's still on. euro2-9.png Like all the rest of the storms with an NAO that just does not want to go Negative... Congrats Boston Screw you Philadelphia in this pattern... You know this is going north... 8.5" at PHL is a dream when we get with in 36 hours we know down here in Kamu and Reilly Country to expect 1" or less LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hang in there the Euro ensembles were south of the operational. At least worth one look at 0Z. They were south with the main event but north with the initial overrunning, they were mostly north of I90 in NY and MA with it. I've been on the train starting today that the overrunning will mostly miss NYC south but the second part will pay dividends big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Like all the rest of the storms with an NAO that just does not want to go Negative... Congrats Boston Screw you Philadelphia in this pattern... You know this is going north... 8.5" at PHL is a dream when we get with in 36 hours we know down here in Kamu and Reilly Country to expect 1" or less LOL. Its only fair, PHL beat BOS last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Like all the rest of the storms with an NAO that just does not want to go Negative... Congrats Boston Screw you Philadelphia in this pattern... You know this is going north... 8.5" at PHL is a dream when we get with in 36 hours we know down here in Kamu and Reilly Country to expect 1" or less LOL. NAO last year at this time. We've seen nothing near these numbers this year. 2014 1 30 -0.109 2014 1 31 -0.617 2014 2 1 -0.896 2014 2 2 -0.989 2014 2 3 -1.071 2014 2 4 -1.060 2014 2 5 -0.870 2014 2 6 -0.678 2014 2 7 -0.724 2014 2 8 -0.826 2014 2 9 -0.853 2014 2 10 -0.727 2014 2 11 -0.786 2014 2 12 -1.064 2014 2 13 -1.097 2014 2 14 -0.794 2014 2 15 -0.415 2014 2 16 -0.310 2014 2 17 -0.099 2014 2 18 -0.098 2014 2 19 -0.198 2014 2 20 -0.092 2014 2 21 0.004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 18z gfs was about the best case scenario. I dont think we want this over-amplifying. This model wont be right but this is about what you want to see at this point imho. Nice thing about the gfs us it is quicker with everything so it starts as taint but is able to go over to snow for most as the hp builds in and before that hp pulls away. Thread the needle, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 18z gfs was about the best case scenario. I dont think we want this over-amplifying. This model wont be right but this is about what you want to see at this point imho. If the 18Z GFS were to verify, I think most people would be OK with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The 18z is a nice hit. Too bad it's not Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Can we just lock in the 18z GFS now... It's almost perfect for the philly area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If the 18Z GFS were to verify, I think most people would be OK with it. It is the 18Z GFS so be wary But I like the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 we have been let down this way too many times so expecting the same, we are to far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Completely agree qtown...gfs showed what would have probably been the best case scenario. This really is a thread the needle system for our area. I will stay tuned for the euro, ukmet, ggem, and again the gfs later, but im not expecting much. I think that is a good attitude to have at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I know its the DGEX but merely pointing out that wave 1 misses us completely to the North and wave 2 (coastal) misses us to the South. Well, it clips us with some precip but it is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Its only fair, PHL beat BOS last winter. Wow, I didn't realize that. You have any approx. numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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