Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Storm potential Sunday-Monday, 2/8-9/2015


famartin

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 268
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Notice that map and compare 36 hours ago shifted 75-85 miles north. It's not going the right way.

 

Agreed....this threat died a rotten death at 12z imo.

Jesus Christ, it gives both of you 7-9 inches or so and somehow it's "rotten." Not every storm is going to be a HECS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Jesus Christ, it gives both of you 7-9 inches or so and somehow it's "rotten." Not every storm is going to be a HECS.

It's just that Euro track record lately has reduced snowfall to almost zero as the event approaches. Trend is your friend. On the other hand, there was a mention that the Euro ensembles were south of the operational. Will have to watch at least another run - oh joy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's too early to get worked up over such details, but...it would be a crying shame if we'd have to deal with warm 850's and a sloppy mess again after all this cold, and the cold being modelled following the event.

This has been the case all winter...after weeks since later December why should this change now... I am heading into this event with much trepidation as I am with every event going forward.  Models are nice to look at AKA 22" in one run from GFS for ABE but when reality comes it is far from this solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is a mess....hp pulling out as storm moves in. So much for that high being in an optimal position. Looks like taint to rain for many this run. Not liking the trends on the GFS at all.

No Blocking... NAO not favorable once again.  A case where the NAO is negative the high is told to stay put and the storm comes with the cold in place and we would get hammered with snow not the case.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro says it's still on.

attachicon.gifeuro2-9.png

Like all the rest of the storms with an NAO that just does not want to go Negative... Congrats Boston Screw you Philadelphia in this pattern... You know this is going north... 8.5" at PHL is a dream when we get with in 36 hours we know down here in Kamu and Reilly Country to expect 1" or less LOL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hang in there the Euro ensembles were south of the operational. At least worth one look at 0Z. ;)

They were south with the main event but north with the initial overrunning, they were mostly north of I90 in NY and MA with it. I've been on the train starting today that the overrunning will mostly miss NYC south but the second part will pay dividends big time

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like all the rest of the storms with an NAO that just does not want to go Negative... Congrats Boston Screw you Philadelphia in this pattern... You know this is going north... 8.5" at PHL is a dream when we get with in 36 hours we know down here in Kamu and Reilly Country to expect 1" or less LOL.

Its only fair, PHL beat BOS last winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like all the rest of the storms with an NAO that just does not want to go Negative... Congrats Boston Screw you Philadelphia in this pattern... You know this is going north... 8.5" at PHL is a dream when we get with in 36 hours we know down here in Kamu and Reilly Country to expect 1" or less LOL.

NAO last year at this time. We've seen nothing near these numbers this year.

2014  1 30 -0.109

2014  1 31 -0.617

2014  2  1 -0.896

2014  2  2 -0.989

2014  2  3 -1.071

2014  2  4 -1.060

2014  2  5 -0.870

2014  2  6 -0.678

2014  2  7 -0.724

2014  2  8 -0.826

2014  2  9 -0.853

2014  2 10 -0.727

2014  2 11 -0.786

2014  2 12 -1.064

2014  2 13 -1.097

2014  2 14 -0.794

2014  2 15 -0.415

2014  2 16 -0.310

2014  2 17 -0.099

2014  2 18 -0.098

2014  2 19 -0.198

2014  2 20 -0.092

2014  2 21  0.004

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z gfs was about the best case scenario. I dont think we want this over-amplifying. This model wont be right but this is about what you want to see at this point imho.

Nice thing about the gfs us it is quicker with everything so it starts as taint but is able to go over to snow for most as the hp builds in and before that hp pulls away. Thread the needle, lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...