snowwors2 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If you think that 18Z GFS track/setup will come anywhere close to verifying.....you must be high I am high, on virtual snow. It would have been even more of a fantasy run if the coastal then turned back up the coast. Interesting doesn't mean will verify, it just means it's interesting.funny comment as something close could certainly happen...alternatively, it may end up nothing like it! point is, no one knows at this point(?) yet another one to keep our interest for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 funny comment as something close could certainly happen... alternatively, it may end up nothing like it! point is, no one knows at this point(?) yet another one to keep our interest for sure! From 6Z to 18Z the offshore low moves nowhere while the onshore low moves due south....not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 From 6Z to 18Z the offshore low moves nowhere while the onshore low moves due south....not going to happen. Yep, just close the thread now ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Nice hit on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 0z GFS is 22"+ of snow for Sunday-Tuesday for KABE Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 0z GFS is 22"+ of snow for Sunday-Tuesday for KABE Sent from my iPhone It gets 850's up to 0C for like 24 hours so... probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Sent from my iPhone That's nice, but with a layer of 0C at 850 you aren't gonna get good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I don't like the way this storm is headed....suddenly it is slowed by 18 hours or so giving HP time to start pulling away before the coastal gets cranking. GGEM gets the rain line practically to NY State border. We really need things to happen while the high is still building in place, otherwise a storm delayed is a storm denied. Just my gut feeling for PHL proper....probably need an earlier storm else this one is mostly rain and mixing....unless you get explosive deepening and dynamic cooling which no model is really showing for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GFS brings ABE back to reality , 8" followed by some rain to wash it down lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GFS brings ABE back to reality , 8" followed by some rain to wash it down lol It's too early to get worked up over such details, but...it would be a crying shame if we'd have to deal with warm 850's and a sloppy mess again after all this cold, and the cold being modelled following the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's too early to get worked up over such details, but...it would be a crying shame if we'd have to deal with warm 850's and a sloppy mess again after all this cold, and the cold being modelled following the event.We'll see, Collins getting excited Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's too early to get worked up over such details, but...it would be a crying shame if we'd have to deal with warm 850's and a sloppy mess again after all this cold, and the cold being modelled following the event. Despite (what Tom at the other forum tells me) the local news "hyping" the current cold, its not all that cold. Certainly not like last year. And the modeling has been repeatedly overdoing the cold in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Despite (what Tom at the other forum tells me) the local news "hyping" the current cold, its not all that cold. Certainly not like last year. And the modeling has been repeatedly overdoing the cold in the longer term. I hope so because right now (and I know it's in the fantasy range) the GFS is depicting some crazy cold in the 192-384 hour range. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kabe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 6z - of course bouncing around as the 0z had All snow now the 6z ice storm....this is really turning out to be quite the winter!! the hits just keep coming! Saturday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of sleet and snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind southwest near calm. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Sunday: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain in the afternoon. High 32. Wind east around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet and snow likely. Low 29. Wind chill as low as 21. Wind east around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Monday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow in the morning, then a chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the afternoon. High 33. Wind chill around 23. Wind east around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Monday night: Dense overcast. A mix of freezing rain and sleet likely in the evening, then freezing rain likely after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 21. Wind east-northeast around 11 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 6z - of course bouncing around as the 0z had All snow now the 6z ice storm....this is really turning out to be quite the winter!! the hits just keep coming! Saturday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of sleet and snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind southwest near calm. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Sunday: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain in the afternoon. High 32. Wind east around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Sunday night: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet and snow likely. Low 29. Wind chill as low as 21. Wind east around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Monday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow in the morning, then a chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the afternoon. High 33. Wind chill around 23. Wind east around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Monday night: Dense overcast. A mix of freezing rain and sleet likely in the evening, then freezing rain likely after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 21. Wind east-northeast around 11 mph, gusting to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.5 inches. Somehow I can believe that actually will happen - 48 hours of frozen precip with no snow accumulation and some glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 This is going to end up just like the last storm. The models have overdone the cold push in the med/long range all winter and I expect the same thing to happen with this as we move closer with a wet outcome for our area and another New England cash-in. You may be right and certainly that seems to be the way things have gone this winter. Let's see where this is by 12z Friday. In Canada maybe? This winter has and will continue to disappoint around here. Our past few winters have been feast or famine and the writing has been on the wall around the city that this one will be famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 In Canada maybe? This winter has and will continue to disappoint around here. Our past few winters have been feast or famine and the writing has been on the wall around the city that this one will be famine. It really depends on where you are.....here in the NW Philly burbs it has been above normal snowfall and colder than normal.....if you love snow the only complaint is the models have printed out like 80"+ this year and reality has been 1/4 of that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It really depends on where you are.....here in the NW Philly burbs it has been above normal snowfall and colder than normal.....if you love snow the only complaint is the models have printed out like 80"+ this year and reality has been 1/4 of that!! yes that's why I said "around the city". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GFS is a mess....hp pulling out as storm moves in. So much for that high being in an optimal position. Looks like taint to rain for many this run. Not liking the trends on the GFS at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GFS is a mess....hp pulling out as storm moves in. So much for that high being in an optimal position. Looks like taint to rain for many this run. Not liking the trends on the GFS at all. ..what? there's .5-.75 that falls with below freezing surface and 850 for most of the area. The coastal storm doesn't even affect the region on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 ..what? there's .5-.75 that falls with below freezing surface and 850 for most of the area. The coastal storm doesn't even affect the region on this run. I'm getting 0.79" at TTN, all snow (but only by the skin of its teeth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Best case scenario is enough moisture gets in here on Sunday for some decent overrunning for us, say several inches. Beyond that we get screwed by departing high pressure even if the trailing wave wraps up close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 fun times for salt/plow crews per 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 fun times for salt/plow crews per 12z gfs White gold baby. Have 100 hours of OT so far since December. But by this time last year I was already at 200 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 No margin for error now much like the last storm evolved. Wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be mostly rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 No margin for error now much like the last storm evolved. Wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be mostly rain here. I don't know about mostly rain but I'm thinking somewhere around 30% rain 20%ice 50% snow. At this point I'm not buying into 6"+ amounts for the TTN area, as you said; way too much can go wrong. I think 2-5" is a good first guess for now. I think that an eventual 1-3" is more likely than a 6-12" storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 No margin for error now much like the last storm evolved. Wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be mostly rain here. The coastal? I agree. But with the overrunning that gives the area over .5 all frozen shouldn't have an issue with temps. That high isn't modeled to depart while that is going on. Best case scenario is what the GFS gives us today. .6-.8 all snow from overrunning and the coastal misses us so there's no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro says it's still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 What I mean is that the Euro had us in the black gray belt this far out. It's already north of us and if this year's trends are any indication, this event will degrade through time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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