famartin Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This extended storm potential has been on the models for a few days now. Might as well get a thread going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Ray, you have my curse this year...please quit making potential threat threads. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Might be the only storm all season I've seen the EURO & ENS lock on for multiple runs since the LR. It has been on the EURo for like 6 straight runs....6z GFS ensembles hopped on a bit, UKIE has it...It is a legit threat but still at the range where anything could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is going to end up just like the last storm. The models have overdone the cold push in the med/long range all winter and I expect the same thing to happen with this as we move closer with a wet outcome for our area and another New England cash-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Also maybe my post above will play some reverse psychology with mother nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is going to end up just like the last storm. The models have overdone the cold push in the med/long range all winter and I expect the same thing to happen with this as we move closer with a wet outcome for our area and another New England cash-in. You may be right and certainly that seems to be the way things have gone this winter. Let's see where this is by 12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Wagons north on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Once again the GFS wants to make this a potent clipper and have it fairly long in duration.....and once again I am fairly confident it is overdone with the precip from said clipper. I'd expect it to begin drying up on the models in the next few days once we are 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 At least it's not tricking us 5 days out about a fake miller A But yellow caution flags because miller b's have been bad to us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I like the fact the hp is in nearly a perfect position. Would like to see that feature strengthen and maybe nose south just a few ticks. Otherwise, im all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Ukie looks AMAZING, GGEM looks like a SECS for southern sections, GFS is a bit fast with the s/w so it doesn't allow the HP to build in, a little slower it would have been a better hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Quick and relatively painless this time as the 12z ECM comes in north eliminating days of anguish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yup...bring on spring at this point Quick and relatively painless this time as the 12z ECM comes in north eliminating days of anguish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 JMA is a big hit. Prolonged storm. Euro by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Would not throw this threat out by any means. That is a massive high to the north and the AO should be negative. The Euro is probably too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Quick and relatively painless this time as the 12z ECM comes in north eliminating days of anguish Yup...bring on spring at this point ...because the Euro has just been lights out lately /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Quick and relatively painless this time as the 12z ECM comes in north eliminating days of anguish Right...and when 0z is back to being a big hit for the entire region the anguish resumes. This threat will move around quite a bit over the next 5 days, that you can be sure of. No sense in declaring it a hit or miss yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Right...and when 0z is back to being a big hit for the entire region the anguish resumes. This threat will move around quite a bit over the next 5 days, that you can be sure of. No sense in declaring it a hit or miss yet. Agreed, the things to watch now are that giant high and it's placement, and the 50/50 low placement. The last storm was modeled to have a nice high, in a nice position, but ended up verifying weaker and further NW leading to the N trend at the last minute. Even on the Euro, these things look pretty good, leading me to believe that it is too far north imo. But the the trends on these players are just as important as the storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Agreed, the things to watch now are that giant high and it's placement, and the 50/50 low placement. The last storm was modeled to have a nice high, in a nice position, but ended up verifying weaker and further NW leading to the N trend at the last minute. Even on the Euro, these things look pretty good, leading me to believe that it is too far north imo. But the the trends on these players are just as important as the storm itself.Actually, last storm the main hp was out over the northern plains with a weak extension over se canada. This sunday-monday system has the main area of surface hp dome of molasses cold sitting just to our north, modeled as much stronger than last system. This, as you said, is a key player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Right...and when 0z is back to being a big hit for the entire region the anguish resumes. This threat will move around quite a bit over the next 5 days, that you can be sure of. No sense in declaring it a hit or miss yet. Too many people have been burned already this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro ensembles and the op worlds apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro ensembles and the op worlds apart In what way? Is the op east or west of the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 18z GFS has a good day and a half period of continuous light snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 There's two waves coming out of the NW which is giving the models a tough time. The EURO puts most of its stock in the lead wave, which comes before the cold air could dig its fingers in. If you live in NE and C PA, you would root for this wave to be the main show. Today's 18z GFS, JMA, UKMET focus on that 2nd one. The ultimate goal would be to have that 1st wave be nothing but a reinforcing shot of cold, and hopefully that 2nd wave is the main show. (Ala JMA as a good example) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 In what way? Is the op east or west of the ensembles? Op was North of the area with the slp, ens were South and more in-line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Op was North of the area with the slp, ens were South and more in-line with other guidance. Lot of the EURO ensembles focusing on the trail wave, kind of what the GFS just did. They're not really sure which wave would be the main show. IMO, what we want to see is for that first wave to be nothing but a reinforcing shot of cold air, and have the models dump their load on that second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 There's two waves coming out of the NW which is giving the models a tough time. The EURO puts most of its stock in the lead wave, which comes before the cold air could dig its fingers in. If you live in NE and C PA, you would root for this wave to be the main show. Today's 18z GFS, JMA, UKMET focus on that 2nd one. The ultimate goal would be to have that 1st wave be nothing but a reinforcing shot of cold, and hopefully that 2nd wave is the main show. (Ala JMA as a good example) First wave will have to turn into a significant 50/50 low to produce desired results with the second wave - close proximity would help.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I realize it's out of it's range and just one possible solution at this point (although to be fair the GFS a week ago was pretty close to the actual outcome of this past Sunday/Monday, before it went away and came back to it Friday), but the 18z GFS looks interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If you think that 18Z GFS track/setup will come anywhere close to verifying.....you must be high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If you think that 18Z GFS track/setup will come anywhere close to verifying.....you must be high I am high, on virtual snow. It would have been even more of a fantasy run if the coastal then turned back up the coast. Interesting doesn't mean will verify, it just means it's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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