MaineJayhawk Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro is also moved towards everything. Yeah, not like it's been steadfast with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS is folding to the KingI guess. Euro has been over amplified though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Eastport is a mega pit albeit a snowy one. Machias a better choice and 66 inches in 4 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm moving to Eastport Should've done that two weeks ago. Climo would indicate that at some point later this winter the storms are going to run farther north, and they'll get rain while your hill stays snow. However, another east-first event would be consistent for heart-of-winter in recent years; the foothills play catch-up in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I don't see folds to the euro. It ticked east while Americans ticked west. Compromise at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What's fascinating from here on out is the incremental impact that nickel/dimers can have. Driving to work this morning, it was really something to see how hard it is to see any intersection. There isn't much room for this one, so I'm staying on the lower end for this one...advisory snows or less. But admittedly, there's some potential for it to pop just in time for a bigger event...esp for eastern folk and up into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Man, Eastport, Another 0.50-0.75" qpf this run..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Machias a better choice and 66 inches in 4 storms That and Calais are nice areas DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Even advisory snows for eastern areas has big impact with the snowpack there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'd tap the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 There isn't much room for this one, so I'm staying on the lower end for this one...advisory snows or less. But admittedly, there's some potential for it to pop just in time for a bigger event...esp for eastern folk and up into Maine. Yea, I think the GEM is best case scenario here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'd tap the 12z GFS. It would tap you too, to the tune of about 2-4. I think the 12z euro moves a little more toward the mean; we just haven't seen enough amplified solutions -- consistently or otherwise -- across the guidance options to think it's a realistic outcome yet/by this time. Glancing blow seems to be the idea. That said, I have literally nowhere to put another 4" of snow if we get it. So, say what you will about "advisory level," it's a high impact to me with relatively low accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Well the GFS finally got a clue at 12z today. We should definitely see a narrowing of guidance today. I'm still leaning 75/25 into the Euro vs other globals right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Well the GFS finally got a clue at 12z today. We should definitely see a narrowing of guidance today. I'm still leaning 75/25 into the Euro vs other globals right now. Haven't looked how's the qpf? Nam was great to start just lost the show again later. If the gfs came around based on a similar init that's great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Haven't looked how's the qpf? Nam was great to start just lost the show again later. If the gfs came around based on a similar init that's great news Advisory level in the east. ~0.25" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I bet the euro holds serve or comes in a bit west at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Isn't the Euro the outlier of the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'd really like to see the UK and GEM hold their ground, or else I'll really lose enthusiasm for anything of consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Isn't the Euro the outlier of the models? Yes...but not a severe outlier...the GGEM and Ukie were not far off last night. We'll see how they do at 12z here after the American guidance has come west a bit. GFS was actually more of an outlier than the Euro last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Isn't the Euro the outlier of the models? Yeah but the trends at 12z are encouraging so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Isn't the Euro the outlier of the models? It's a little more robust than the GEM, but not too different...UK is a little more progressive than the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'd really like to see the UK and GEM hold their ground, or else I'll really lose enthusiasm for anything of consequence. Again, for me, it wouldn't take much to get to "consequence" but that's largely because of what's already down. Lately the rhythm has seemed like "small end of week system, huge start of week storm" starting two Saturdays ago. That's more anecdotal than scientific of course, and I do not mean by mentioning it to posit that Thursday should remain meager that Monday might again rock. Or do I?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's shaping up high end advisory/low end warning anywhere east of I-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Again, for me, it wouldn't take much to get to "consequence" but that's largely because of what's already down. Lately the rhythm has seemed like "small end of week system, huge start of week storm" starting two Saturdays ago. That's more anecdotal than scientific of course, and I do not mean by mentioning it to posit that Thursday should remain meager that Monday might again rock. Or do I?! Yes, I know what you mean...but I still wouldn't deem 1-3" as anything of much consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Monday def. has the larger upside at this point...maybe not yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Monday def. has the larger upside at this point...maybe not yesterday. Idk, I think this storm has huge upside. It won't take much even on the gfs to produce a pretty prolific snow event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Idk, I think this storm has huge upside. It won't take much even on the gfs to produce a pretty prolific snow event here. Theoretically, but I think we are running out of time, as the goal posts narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 12z GGEM looked a shade east of the 0z run, Not the direction one would like to see at this stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Theoretically, but I think we are running out of time, as the goal posts narrow. Yeah and the 12z euro will be very telling, but I wouldn't write this off until 0z. I think most of E ma has a great shot at a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GGEM still looks like an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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