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Nor'easter Storm Discussion 2/5-2/6


dryslot

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I think so far this has been the season of the consensus. Many years it's been everything tugging toward the Euro sooner or later once the Euro locks in first.

 

Lately, and this may just be my perception, but it's actually seemed more like middle ground is the way to go. And right now middle ground is a sort of 3-6/4-8 east-ish hit, especially given that the Euro has ticked east a couple times from a prior solution that gave a bit of rain here initially.

 

Unless the GFS ticks west substantially AND the Euro maintains its solution or presents something more amplified at 12z, the goalposts are relatively narrow with the higher end potentials on the outside looking given the relatively short time frame for wiggle room.

Absolutely agreed. 

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Not a whole lot of moisture in the pack, though...that is one aspect in which this season trails 2011. 

 

Good point--but if you keep building you'll still have a ton of water in it.

 

Looks like a decent event taking shape for the easterners.  I'd love some crazy amping, but that does not appear to be in the cards.

 

7.8/2

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I think so far this has been the season of the consensus. Many years it's been everything tugging toward the Euro sooner or later once the Euro locks in first.

Lately, and this may just be my perception, but it's actually seemed more like middle ground is the way to go. And right now middle ground is a sort of 3-6/4-8 east-ish hit, especially given that the Euro has ticked east a couple times from a prior solution that gave a bit of rain here initially.

Unless the GFS ticks west substantially AND the Euro maintains its solution or presents something more amplified at 12z, the goalposts are relatively narrow with the higher end potentials on the outside looking given the relatively short time frame for wiggle room.

That middle ground is high impact given the background. Incidentally the euro had the amped rain solution for one run and ticked back to the latest which mirrors the prior run fwiw.
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RGEM looks much better than the NAM.  Let's face it the NAM is prone to falling apart after 36 3 to 6 hours, so it may be shearing stuff out as usual beyond about 42 hours and that prevents it from being able to make the turn.

 

I think it either flips over or it doesn't...IE the solutions will all suddenly come to a 6+ or it just won't come together and it's a flizzard.

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