ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 looks alot better but was pretty far east before NAM looks better with that/those features at least to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Give me an amped run to the canal. We're still running in the red in GC. But, this seems to be the way the 14-15 winter wants to roll. We might want to rename this thread to discuss 'frontal passage' instead of 'significant nor'easter'...... -.6/-6 sometimes i even hope for them bc if the air it bulldozes into is strong enough ill get a hellacious fe dump and then seal it with some sleet before dsing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 NAM looks better with that/those features at least to start. Looks like it will come back a bit West from 06z. Looking at the 36h panel, trough is a bit sharper raisiing heights over the coastline. Ridge out west is pumped up a bit higher too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 yeah NAM looks like an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looks like it will come back a bit West from 06z. Looking at the 36h panel, trough is a bit sharper raisiing heights over the coastline. Ridge out west is pumped up a bit higher too. All of the above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 All of the above Nice compact s/w in the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looks like it will come back a bit West from 06z. Looking at the 36h panel, trough is a bit sharper raisiing heights over the coastline. Ridge out west is pumped up a bit higher too. It's a big shift for the ncep guidance and I suspect the GFS will jump too as it started almost immediately. I don't know how much I buy the whole data rich/poor thing but it's pretty clear in THIS pattern models are really struggling before the key features/kickers etc are on land. You can see the s/w coming into Missouri midway through, and that'll be one of the keys to watch. Need that to appear stronger each run, part of a process that slows things down and helps to get the trough more N/S earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's a big shift for the ncep guidance and I suspect the GFS will jump too as it started almost immediately. I don't know how much I buy the whole data rich/poor thing but it's pretty clear in THIS pattern models are really struggling before the key features/kickers etc are on land. You can see the s/w coming into Missouri midway through, and that'll be one of the keys to watch. Need that to appear stronger each run, part of a process that slows things down and helps to get the trough more N/S earlier Well I'm suspect of the GFS since it's squashed the southern s/w as of yesterday and I've seen the GFS slowly getting a clue that there is a s/w there. I think it corrects west some as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nice compact s/w in the southern stream. A touch west of 06z run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's a big shift for the ncep guidance and I suspect the GFS will jump too as it started almost immediately. I don't know how much I buy the whole data rich/poor thing but it's pretty clear in THIS pattern models are really struggling before the key features/kickers etc are on land. You can see the s/w coming into Missouri midway through, and that'll be one of the keys to watch. Need that to appear stronger each run, part of a process that slows things down and helps to get the trough more N/S earlier I think models are struggling because most of these systems have had their origins in the northern stream, which zips right along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I think models are struggling because most of these systems have had their origins in the northern stream, which zips right along. I see potential system as a southern stream dominant solution with the northern stream diving in and catching it at just the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 I see potential system as a southern stream dominant solution with the northern stream diving in and catching it at just the right time. Late capture and a tug back west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I see potential system as a southern stream dominant solution with the northern stream diving in and catching it at just the right time. I haven't really looked at this next one closely to be honest, I was speaking of these past few systems. Either way, I guess modeling is just having difficulty with the phasing of the two streams, which is understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I haven't really looked at this next one closely to be honest, I was speaking of these past few systems. Either way, I guess modeling is just having difficulty with the phasing of the two streams, which is understandable. Correct, which is why I'd lean on a Euro type solution since it typically handles these interactions better than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 I haven't really looked at this next one closely to be honest, I was speaking of these past few systems. Either way, I guess modeling is just having difficulty with the phasing of the two streams, which is understandable. These last few systems have shown up late on the modeling and pop up out of nowhere in a couple instances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nam is so close to a monster solution for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 9z SREFs were a tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 NAM not going to get it done this time it would appear. Northern stream gets swallowed up by the trough. Light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 nam still east but it has that look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 NAM meh.. close,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 NAM not going to get it done this time it would appear. Northern stream gets swallowed up by the trough. Light event. It's so so close though to a good phase. I like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It's so so close though to a good phase. I like the trend. Yes, it definitely took a step in the positive direction. Storm got kicked east at the last moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 curious to see what the rest of the 12z models show nam looked like it wanted to produce but couldnt get it done but looked much better then 6z Nam is so close to a monster solution for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 if only we can get this to come up that has alot of potential Yes, it definitely took a step in the positive direction. Storm got kicked east at the last moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We will see re the rest of the guidance. It's just not enough on this run, timing breaks worse and the main low...there's no mechanism to get the Mexican energy up the coast in time as what digs into the TN river valley is just too weak, by the time the northern stream catches it and starts to pull it up it's already gone. We'll see. Window is closing rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro has had it in one form or another for 3 consecutive runs. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 We will still be outside the RGEM's window for this but may get an early indication to where this one may or may not be heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro has had it in one form or another for 3 consecutive runs. It's coming. You really want to think this but as of late it has had some hiccups so you really can't buy in totally i don't think of a significant degree yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro has had it in one form or another for 3 consecutive runs. It's coming. I think so far this has been the season of the consensus. Many years it's been everything tugging toward the Euro sooner or later once the Euro locks in first. Lately, and this may just be my perception, but it's actually seemed more like middle ground is the way to go. And right now middle ground is a sort of 3-6/4-8 east-ish hit, especially given that the Euro has ticked east a couple times from a prior solution that gave a bit of rain here initially. Unless the GFS ticks west substantially AND the Euro maintains its solution or presents something more amplified at 12z, the goalposts are relatively narrow with the higher end potentials on the outside looking given the relatively short time frame for wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Today is my 4th, wife's 6th I would be done on 6/20 now. Just hard to build momentum my kids both had 2hr delay Oakmont and Monty Tech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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