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Nor'easter Storm Discussion 2/5-2/6


dryslot

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fwiw

GEM-GLB CLUSTER WITH CONSISTANT ECMWF IN THIS RUN WITH THE SLOWER, WRN TREND,  WHERE GFS REAMINS ON THE FAST SIDE MOVING SYSTEM FURTHER E OF THE CONSENSUS.  THE UKMET SUPPORTS THE SLOWER TREND AS WELL, BUT TRACKS SYSTEM ON THE ERN  FRINGE OF THE GEM-GLB ECMWF BLEND. HOWEVER, SPITE OF GOOD ADJUSTMENTS OF  GEM-GLB IN THIS INTEGRATION, IT LOOKS TO TRACK SYSTEM A BIT W OF ALL, HENCE  SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE E IS SUGGESTED. AGAIN SIG PCPN EXPECTED ESPECIALLY  FOR NS, PEI, QC LA BASSE COTE-NORD AND THEN NL. SOME UNCERTAINTIES ATTM ABOUT  PCPN TYPE, BUT GEM-GLB SEEMS GIVING REASONABLE SIGNAL FOR THE LONG RANGE  FORECAST. AGAIN, STRONG WINDS ON THE NRN/WRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MAY GENERATES  BLIZZARD CONDITION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THIS RUN ON GEM-GLB WITH  ADJUSTMENTS SUGGESTED.  
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GEFS do have some hits that are somewhat similar to Euro...though still not totally as organized.

 

I'd certainly favor the best chance of 4"+ for eastern regions and in particularl northeast as you go towards Maine. There should be some overrunning snows along the frontal wave though for just about everywone.

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Have not seen them commented on, how did the Euro Ensm look as compared to the 00z Op run and yesterdays 12z run?

 

 

Euro ensembles are east of 12z...a general 0.3" or so for most of NE except 0.50" for the immediate E MA coastline up into southeast half of Maine.

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