J Paul Gordon Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 i'm starting to lose faith in these threats just because of sheer probability.....I mean, at some point, one must figure that climo is going to drag one of these threats by the hair, and propel it into failure. It just has to intervene, doesn't it? The problem with probability is that every so often things get improbable! If all pans out and we get clobbered a couple more times we may be looking at a once in 3 centuries event (since 1717--way back when Jerry and I were kids) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 i'm starting to lose faith in these threats just because of sheer probability.....I mean, at some point, one must figure that climo is going to drag one of these threats by the hair, and propel it into failure. It just has to intervene, doesn't it? We just went through 2 months of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The problem with probability is that every so often things get improbable! If all pans out and we get clobbered a couple more times we may be looking at a once in 3 centuries event (since 1717--way back when Jerry and I were kids) Are you the one quoted here? http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/an-horrid-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 if 0z models are a hit the media is going to go into a frenzy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Are you the one quoted here? http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/an-horrid-snow No, maybe Jerry. I was only three so I barely remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 No, maybe Jerry. I was only three so I barely remember it. That storm made me a snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We just went through 2 months of that THIS!! My goodness, a week and a half into this stormy pattern, and now a storm has to miss due to the odds??? They all missed for two months...frigid, then when a storm comes it gets warm; Clipper after Clipper too far south(congrats DC/S. Jersey); Flow just too fast and nothing amplifies or can get going and gets swept out to the east/sea; and the dreaded Frigid cold and Dry pattern for the first half of January. Now we've had a week and a half of several storms that have hit us, and the odds are already against us?? I'll say we are in the pay-back mode now...climo and the atmosphere balancing out for the two months of misses/bad breaks. Lets Enjoy...and whatever will be, will be!! Fun times!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 srefs improved but outside 24hrs so who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It was tongue in cheek, but getting your seasonal avg in a week is absurd....I dont care how bad the first half was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Very initial thoughts on temps? Doesn't EURO seem to have the probability of a mix with rain for many of us, including BOS, or am I missing something with this super quick look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Very initial thoughts on temps? Doesn't EURO seem to have the probability of a mix with rain for many of us, including BOS, or am I missing something with this super quick look?You got it. Euro is amped. Gfs is ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We don't even have confidence in an actual storm so thoughts on temps would be fruitless. 00z runs tonight will be critical in this respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Ha. Can't stand to miss another one? No roof issues here thanks to all of the wind and "dry" snow lately. Don't want to miss a biggie, nor the epicness of a deep snowpack. I have to assess how much we might get Thurs night thru Monday. Can make a fairly last minute decision. 0z tonight will be crucial to see how this is trending. Interesting to see how fired up Mr. Leatherwood is. I would've been disappointed today perhaps...fun but not worth staying home for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Let's rekindle 1717. I'm all in, come this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It was tongue in cheek, but getting your seasonal avg in a week is absurd....I dont care how bad the first half was Yes, it sure is..no doubt you are right!! I get what you meant Ray. Was just saying, who cares lets see how far we can push/carry this thing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 probably not worth much but SREFS came way west at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Oh believe me.....I'll break out s musket and throw a feather in my cap if it nets me a 5' pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The melts were as epic as this snow packYep, I was panicking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Oh believe me.....I'll break out s musket and throw a feather in my cap if it nets me a 5' pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This is nuts if this hits. Starting to lose track of all these storms Jan. 2011 was just like this with something large or small every 3 or at most 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Jan. 2011 was just like this with something large or small every 3 or at most 4 days. If it hits with it's full potential, we exceed anything we've seen easily. Talking colonial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 0z NAM not going to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro all alone on this? what are the Canadian models saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nam introduces some significant chances at 0z....if these changes are real and not just the nam (ie unt changes from the s/ws being over land ) may change the play here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nam introduces some significant chances at 0z....if these changes are real and not just the nam (ie unt changes from the s/ws being over land ) may change the play hereElaborate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 0z NAM not going to do it. Nope, Trough was flatter this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Nam introduces some significant chances at 0z....if these changes are real and not just the nam (ie unt changes from the s/ws being over land ) may change the play here Come on Clinch...thought you were feeling this was going to be big...you're not getting rattled by the NAM are you???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Elaborate... I think one thing was that the southern stream vortmax was stronger later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The Canadian models have done quite well. Are they in yet? GFS seems to paint an advisory level event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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