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SuperBowl Storm Observations


sferic

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I probably shouldn't be throwing fuel on any fires, but over the past 15 minutes the breeze has started to pick up here, enough to start blowing a little snow off of the roofs and the snow is blowing off the south side of the roofs (i.e., north wind).  Not sure how long that will last, but it beats SE.

 

The uppers seem destined to go above freezing, but this northerly wind direction may make icing more likely.  Meanwhile, the light snow is increasing in intensity.  Temp is still 29, although it has ticked up a half degree in the past 30 minutes.

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I just took a look at the intellicast radar. It's quite impressive this thing stretches all the way back to Brownsville TX and into Mexico. It looks to really nail the Catskills, Dacks, Greens and Whites.

To my untrained eye, it looks like the storm will head east and then pivot up the New England coast. Any chance this nails us with back end snows? I know that is always a long shot.

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I just took a look at the intellicast radar. It's quite impressive this thing stretches all the way back to Brownsville TX and into Mexico. It looks to really nail the Catskills, Dacks, Greens and Whites.

To my untrained eye, it looks like the storm will head east and then pivot up the New England coast. Any chance this nails us with back end snows? I know that is always a long shot.

This is 3pm tomorrow on the HRRR

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They flipped to sleet at 1 am, according to the Philly thread, so that's about an hour of sleet or so...

 

that was my inference from some posts - just asked explicitly and folks over there are saying 20-30 minutes of sleet, then rain, although famartin said it went over to rain much faster in Ewing, Mercer County.  He also said he didn't expect this ~30 mph approaching changeover line (my estimate based on radar) to slow down much until it's through NYC/LI - that's not gospel, but he's a very good met, so that might be right - line should reach me in the Edison area by 3 am, I think...

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that was my inference from some posts - just asked explicitly and folks over there are saying 20-30 minutes of sleet, then rain, although famartin said it went over to rain much faster in Ewing, Mercer County.  He also said he didn't expect this ~30 mph approaching changeover line (my estimate based on radar) to slow down much until it's through NYC/LI - that's not gospel, but he's a very good met, so that might be right - line should reach me in the Edison area by 3 am, I think...

Maybe it'll get stuck in traffic on the Turnpike.

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Tell you what, I just took a walk outside of work, looks more like 3.0"-3.5" of snow with moderate snow continuing to fall. Should be at the 4.0" mark in the not so distant future.

Rtd - could be right - I measured 2.25" at 2 am and I was getting 1.5" per hour, so that would be another inch in 40 minutes bringing me to about 3.25".  I'll be going outside to measure and shovel at 3 am - it's ripping now with bigger flakes, which has me thinking the mix line is close - that yellow band is in southern Middlesex County as we speak...

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Rtd - could be right - I measured 2.25" at 2 am and I was getting 1.5" per hour, so that would be another inch in 40 minutes bringing me to about 3.25".  I'll be going outside to measure and shovel at 3 am - it's ripping now with bigger flakes, which has me thinking the mix line is close - that yellow band is in southern Middlesex County as we speak...

It's fun when you're just north of the mix line. Extremely heavy snow right now. Looks as if we'll end up with somewhere between 3 and 4 inches before this mixing moves in.

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