Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

SuperBowl Storm Observations


sferic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

People have to remember it's not snow depth it's snow accumulation. Rarely are they one and the same unless it's measured right after an event. Compacting, temps, mixing, etc all cause issues in depth. The proper way to measure is to do it during the storm and use a board or average spots together that are protected. CPK issues likely had to do with the wet snow and then mixing (frz rain). Then there was a significant break and more snow. The new snow was probably just measured as total depth. It should have been measured like a new storm and added to the precious report, which likely didn't happen.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It only looked like rain if you were model hugging.

It rained plenty near the coast and it got above freezing there and in the city. The coastal low developed sooner than most models expected and turned the winds back around to the north, and helped develop the heavy snow band that tacked on 2-4 more inches. It wasn't "model hugging" at all to think there would be more rain. That's how many of these SWFE type events end up for our area, and the NAO/AO/PNA still aren't in a favorable place for us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It rained plenty near the coast and it got above freezing there and in the city. The coastal low developed sooner than most models expected and turned the winds back around to the north, and helped develop the heavy snow band that tacked on 2-4 more inches. It wasn't "model hugging" at all to think there would be more rain. That's how many of these SWFE type events end up for our area, and the NAO/AO/PNA still aren't in a favorable place for us. 

JM .  It was absolutely model hugging . BY OTHERS  I argued on here for 3 days that the set up was ripe for the cold to hold .  You had a NEG PNA which argued for progression , you had a NEGA NAO, Confluence through the lakes a POS tilted trough and you saw the isobars aimed east off the Delmarva which argued to redevelopment there .

ALL pointed to the cold holding . I said NYC would get 8 from 3 days ago . The city and immediate burbs got 5 to 7 with up to 9 on the N shore of Long Island . This was ALL MODEL HUGGING .

 

The warm card was NOT supported aloft at all .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JM .  It was absolutely model hugging . I argued on here for 3 days that the set up was ripe for the cold to hold .  You had a NEG PNA which argued for progression , you had a NEGA NAO, Confluence through the lakes a POS tilted trough , you saw the isobars aimed east off the Delmarva which argued to redevelopment there .

ALL pointed to the cold holding . I said NYC would get 8 from 3 days ago . The city and immediate burbs got 5 to 7 with up to 9 on the N shore of Long Island . This was ALL MODEL HUGGING .

 

The warm card was NOT supported aloft at all .

 

 

But JM wasn't model hugging. He gave meteorological reasons as to why he believed it would be warmer for NYC. It's not as if he was just basing his opinion on warm model runs. He ended up being wrong, and you ended up being right. Excellent job by you, but it's not fair to say JM was model hugging.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But JM wasn't model hugging. He gave meteorological reasons as to why he believed it would be warmer for NYC. It's not as if he was just basing his opinion on warm model runs. He ended up being wrong, and you ended up being right. Excellent job by you, but it's not fair to say JM was model hugging.

No. Didn't say he did. I said others did. If it came across that way I apologize

The calls for rain in the city and long island were based on the models and understandable.

I just took a different approach.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It only looked like rain if you were model hugging.

Storm overperformed.

Look, at KHPN it was near or above freezing much of Sunday. The secondary development cut the warm air advection just after the nick of time but we did go back to snow.

We would up with about 10".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It rained plenty near the coast and it got above freezing there and in the city. The coastal low developed sooner than most models expected and turned the winds back around to the north, and helped develop the heavy snow band that tacked on 2-4 more inches. It wasn't "model hugging" at all to think there would be more rain. That's how many of these SWFE type events end up for our area, and the NAO/AO/PNA still aren't in a favorable place for us.

I don't believe you were model hugging brother. However, there were plenty in here who were. All they kept saying was the trend and that the models were showing it so it therefore must be true, etc. The teleconnections implied otherwise, though. Yes the PV elongated, but it just did not make sense the storm was going to just ride up as the models were indicating. Furthermore, the coastal redeveloping more quickly than expected was a result of the PV forcing the storm to stop it's progression. The storm could no longer push north and all the energy it had was forced to transfer more quickly to the redeveloping storm. Climatology was on our side. Teleconnections were on our side. And for those of us who have seen a similar set up, it was well understood that such artic low level cold air would be exceedingly hard to scour out and that an significant ice event in addition to a good bit of snow was in store.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No. Didn't say he did. I said others did. If it came across that way I apologize

The calls for rain in the city and long island were based on the models and understandable.

I just took a different approach.

 

 

You didn't say that specifically and responded to JM's post, so it was easy to assume that you were including him in that model hugging. But I guess my post should have been targeted at NEXtreme since he said it only looked like rain to people that were model hugging. I'm sure there was some model hugging going on, but there definitely were people that were not model hugging that thought a warmer solution would happen.

 

But of course, we're talking about NEXtreme here. In following this board the last few years, I don't think I've seen one snow threat that he wasn't bullish on. He always thinks the best case scenario will happen for snow lovers and tends to criticize people that think otherwise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No. Didn't say he did. I said others did. If it came across that way I apologize

The calls for rain in the city and long island were based on the models and understandable.

I just took a different approach.

 

 

I see you edited the post to make it more clear. It's no problem. And again I should have directed it at NEXtreme since he said that it looked like rain to only people that were model hugging.

 

The key thing that made the difference was the backend snow, obviously. Take away those 2 to 4 inches on the backend, and 2 to 4 forecasts for the event would have verified. The mixing line came in on schedule after the front end thump. Maybe even slightly ahead of schedule. I went over to sleet a little after 3am, and NYC was shortly after that. I only got 3.5 here because that backend snow missed me to the east. So JM was on the money as far as the mixing coming in quickly as it warmed upstairs, but people that called for more ended up being right because of the impressive back end. We know back end snows rarely work out for NYC, but thankfully for snow lovers it did this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see you edited the post to make it more clear. It's no problem. And again I should have directed it at NEXtreme since he said that it looked like rain to only people that were model hugging.

 

The key thing that made the difference was the backend snow, obviously. Take away those 2 to 4 inches on the backend, and 2 to 4 forecasts for the event would have verified. The mixing line came in on schedule after the front end thump. Maybe even slightly ahead of schedule. I went over to sleet a little after 3am, and NYC was shortly after that. I only got 3.5 here because that backend snow missed me to the east. So JM was on the money as far as the mixing coming in quickly as it warmed upstairs, but people that called for more ended up being right because of the impressive back end. We know back end snows rarely work out for NYC, but thankfully for snow lovers it did this time.

Yes the front end was still 4 to 5 up on the N shore . 3.5 at JFK and 5 LGA . Just  that those BL got stuck and them the  show commenced  .

 

Back end fail here about 90 % of the time . So I look them as a typical non event . Hey this turned into a good storm and for the guys up on the N shore they threw 7 to 9 on top of the 15 plus that was on the ground up there . 

Nice pack and it`s not going anywhere . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...