Rjay Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm at 31.3 Looks pretty accurate. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/NY/North_Merrick.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 That's why they get paid to give forecasts and you don't All kidding aside, the snow came in heavier than I think most expected and this event looks like it will last a lot longer than most models were indicating. Another very tough forecast. Yes sir. I was dead wrong. This is now a serious event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Even with the models showing winds going back NE I was not that sure it would change back over. I have seen setups before where we go back NE and stay 34-36, it depends strongly how far north the warm push gets, if it makes it past Westchester the return wind usually is not enough to get you back below 32, but if it does not it usually plummets back. I'm still not entirely sure that most here flip back to snow. NYC is still +3 to +4C at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LHSnow Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Down to 27f and all sleet. Really getting messy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Exactly what I came up with. I'm a trained spotter but that's not my report. I would have reported 4.6" at 4:45am. Sent from my iPhone Hopefully, the measurement will be flagged in quality control and fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 925mb freezing line is hung up over NNJ. Where the red lines are closer to the city is where it's freezing rain. North of that is where the sleet is until you get North of Sussex and then it flips back to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Closest reporting station down to 30.7, freezing rain falling with ice accretion forming on some surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Temps keep on falling. Now down to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 If we can get some heavier returns in we may be able to push through the warm layer and get mostly snow. This thing is Prob only 1 or 2 hrs away from going back to snow/sleet and eventually just snow (in the city) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 UPTON now calling for up .3 of ICE from the city across Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 27 with sleet at LGA Edit:now just ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hot off the presses Created: 02/02/15 9:32 AM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hot off the presses Aw crap. Here we go. I hope I don't lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 light freezing drizzle here, 22/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hopefully, the measurement will be flagged in quality control and fixed. the record snowfall for today is 5" so this bad measurement might prevent a new record snow for this date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 32.4 here in Western Nassau along SSP with light rain just beginning to freeze on some colder patches of ground near existing snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Uh oh that's not good at all. This is going to be a very dangerous situation I fear. 0.3" of an inch of ice or more is nothing to mess with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 28.9 in Lynbrook, freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 fail by all the models...i never went above 32 degrees here in northwest suffolk and never had just plain rain...i barely lost any snowpack if none at all and the snow is already rock solid from the freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 the record snowfall for today is 5" so this bad measurement might prevent a new record snow for this date... It was definitely not 5, 4.3 or 4.4 roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 fail by all the models...i never went above 32 degrees here in northwest suffolk and never had just plain rain...i barely lost any snowpack if none at all and the snow is already rock solid from the freezing rain Models typically nail the WAA at H925-800 correctly, but underestimate tenacity of low level cold in situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 925mb freezing line is hung up over NNJ. Where the red lines are closer to the city is where it's freezing rain. North of that is where the sleet is until you get North of Sussex and then it flips back to all snow. Do you think I can switch back to snow in Northern Westchester? So far 7 inches now with sleet and a temp of 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It was definitely not 5, 4.3 or 4.4 roughly but we have a chance with back end snow showers/squalls to go over 5...that's the issue Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I don't even understand what will happen with NYC schools. These kids can't go anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 FOR ALL THE SCHOOLS THAT DIDN'T END UP CLOSING, THIS COULD BE LIFE THREATENING FOR students HEADING HOME LATER....just think everyone assumed we would be above freezing up to freezing 40, never hit 32 it here only 31 down to about 27, it's bad bad. freezing rain advisory should be issued if not ice storm warning for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Models typically nail the WAA at H925-800 correctly, but underestimate tenacity of low level cold in situations like this. I mentioned about this yesterday but got pounced on by some posters for wishcasting. I said a few inches for NYC before turning to sleet and freezing rain. No plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Do you think I can switch back to snow in Northern Westchester? So far 7 inches now with sleet and a temp of 23 HPN is very close to the sleet snow line so you probably will flip back to snow as soon as the coastal takes over and the mid-level winds flip around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Models typically nail the WAA at H925-800 correctly, but underestimate tenacity of low level cold in situations like this. Most of the area is below freezing. Kind of shocked you're above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 fail by all the models...i never went above 32 degrees here in northwest suffolk and never had just plain rain...i barely lost any snowpack if none at all and the snow is already rock solid from the freezing rain Same here. Ice on the power lines now. If it was raining just a bit harder, we would be in real trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 RAP has NYC/LI back to snow by 1pm. NAM by 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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