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SuperBowl Storm Observations


sferic

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That's why they get paid to give forecasts and you don't <_<

 

All kidding aside, the snow came in heavier than I think most expected and this event looks like it will last a lot longer than most models were indicating. Another very tough forecast.

 

Yes sir.

I was dead wrong.

 

This is now a serious event.

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Even with the models showing winds going back NE I was not that sure it would change back over.  I have seen setups before where we go back NE and stay 34-36, it depends strongly how far north the warm push gets, if it makes it past Westchester the return wind usually is not enough to get you back below 32, but if it does not it usually plummets back.

I'm still not entirely sure that most here flip back to snow. NYC is still +3 to +4C at 850mb.

 

850mb_sf.gif?1422887592492

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fail by all the models...i never went above 32 degrees here in northwest suffolk and never had just plain rain...i barely lost any snowpack if none at all and the snow is already rock solid from the freezing rain

 

Models typically nail the WAA at H925-800 correctly, but underestimate tenacity of low level cold in situations like this.

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925mb freezing line is hung up over NNJ. Where the red lines are closer to the city is where it's freezing rain. North of that is where the sleet is until you get North of Sussex and then it flips back to all snow.

925mb_sf.gif?1422887707201

Do you think I can switch back to snow in Northern Westchester? So far 7 inches now with sleet and a temp of 23

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FOR ALL THE SCHOOLS THAT DIDN'T END UP CLOSING, THIS COULD BE LIFE THREATENING FOR students HEADING HOME LATER....just think everyone assumed we would be above freezing up to freezing 40, never hit 32 it here only 31 down to about 27, it's bad bad. freezing rain advisory should be issued if not ice storm warning for some

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Models typically nail the WAA at H925-800 correctly, but underestimate tenacity of low level cold in situations like this.

I mentioned about this yesterday but got pounced on by some posters for wishcasting. I said a few inches for NYC before turning to sleet and freezing rain. No plain rain.

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fail by all the models...i never went above 32 degrees here in northwest suffolk and never had just plain rain...i barely lost any snowpack if none at all and the snow is already rock solid from the freezing rain

Same here. Ice on the power lines now. If it was raining just a bit harder, we would be in real trouble

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