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Southern Ontario Spring 2015 Discussion


snowstormcanuck

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Going to go with an estimate of 5.5" here as of 5am. Cannot believe YYZ has yet to record an observation of visibilities below 1km. Have true dendrites falling now.

With another couple hours of steady snow and at least one more moderate-heavy band to swing thru, you should be able to get to 7" maybe even make a run at 8". 

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With another couple hours of steady snow and at least one more moderate-heavy band to swing thru, you should be able to get to 7" maybe even make a run at 8". 

 

My range is going to work out it looks like, but there's something unsavory about this storm. No +SN when radar indicated it certainly should have been occurring. And already a swath of 8-12" from London to KW. No reason we shouldn't have been there with them.

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I might cry if that death band forming from KW to York stays north of us.

South Mississauga got a jump into that 8-12 as well. It stopped right at the Mississauga/Toronto border (along the lakeshore) watching it on radar gave the impression it was LES but that was clearly to the south in Burlington/Hamilton so Im at a loss of why it came to a dead stop there. Could possibly have to do with us having better moisture at the onset? 

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South Mississauga got a jump into that 8-12 as well. It stopped right at the Mississauga/Toronto border (along the lakeshore) watching it on radar gave the impression it was LES but that was clearly to the south in Burlington/Hamilton so Im at a loss of why it came to a dead stop there. Could possibly have to do with us having better moisture at the onset? 

 

Maybe I'm underestimating how much has fallen. Maybe we're closer to 7"? 5.5" was an estimate made on some very imprecise measurements. I'll wait to see what the rest of our crew has to report in with. I dunno.

 

I had estimated 6-7cm at 1am, and YYZ came in with just that :huh: may be a sign I'm lowballing.

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Light to moderate snow falling downtown. Better sized flakes compared to yesterday evening. Let's hope that intense defo band on KIng City radar moves across Toronto in the next hour or so. That will determine if we can reach 7-8".

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see 2"/hr rates with that. Looks like it is slowly sagging south.

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Rippage, blitzing, pouring snow, all get thrown around a lot. But this is it. 2"/hr stuff I'd estimate.

One thing I noticed about this storm is that the NAM was peaking it around Detroit while the other models had more of a peak in Chicago.  Based on obs it peaked back toward Chicago which the other models were showing.  Using my rule to knock their totals by a good 1/3 worked great here!!

 

Hard to believe that last Thursday/Friday this looked to be a DAB storm!

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