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Southern Ontario Spring 2015 Discussion


snowstormcanuck

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21r137.png

 

Today had the largest temperature difference I have ever seen in the geographic scope of this image. A 1.5 hour drive yields a 13ºC difference. Both Hanover and Kincardine were 10ºC with Tobermory at -2ºC at 4:30 pm.

 

 

I think theres a decent chance NW of the city but a much lower chance in the GTA. Right now the only model with sig accums is the euro which has 5-10mm of ZR depending on runoff. 

 

I'm...NW of Toronto  :yikes: . TWN is showing 10 mm of freezing rain overnight Wednesday; this could be very similar to April 2013 for me too where the ceiling for that was 2 cm of ice but got a tad over 1 cm.

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Has anyone in Ontario noticed how bad the forecasts have been short term and long term? I don't look at EC forecasts much but The Weather Network ones I routinely follow and for the past 12-16 months I've noticed a steep decline in accuracy at least for my part of Ontario. This Spring and now first day of summer has been especially horrible and my confidence in TWN is going down rather fast. I've noticed certain patterns that have been predictable with the PMX engine like flip-flopping which goes back many years. There are broad cases of temperature busts where the warm front fails to move as far north as modeled which happened multiple times 2 weeks ago but here are two stunning examples that just happened:

 

On Wednesday or Thursday there was some storms that were thought to move into Midwestern Ontario and Mark Robinson was in Goderich doing bits. During one he grabbed his sensor and said it was currently 28ºC in Goderich at his location...all the while on the bottom of my screen it said it was 21ºC in Goderich. I wish I had captured that one.

 

The latest and most stunning example is yesterday and Friday, today was going to be rainy and it showed that for overnight, morning, and afternoon so mostly a rain day. Not just one town, but a broad area of southern Ontario like Kitchener-Waterloo extending north and west. It even had rain for Saturday evening but just blue sky everywhere. There was a cell of rain overnight that wasn't too big that tracked through and then cleared by 5:00 am. Not only was there not a drop of rain after that, but it was clear blue skies all day after!! This forecast of all day rain was less than 12 hours before the time and instead there aren't even clouds around, WTF is going on? This is not the 1870s. They quickly changed it to sunny conditions later on and bumped the temp. up 6ºC (which didn't materialize). Its been said that summer showers is the hardest to forecast for, but this is far beyond what I've seen in my time. It wasn't an isolated shower icon. Anyone else catch this?

 

Now with that out of the way, Tuesday overnight intrigues me since right next door is going to be a show of force. I think something will happen here thunderstorm wise but I wonder how bad. My mind is blown at the SREF showing SigTor values in the middle of the night for us and a 60 near Sarnia and London! Never seen that. I just want a good severe storm and if by some insane chance there is an overnight supercell, I'll take that but outside my town. I bet my bottom dollar TWN will change the forecast for this period from nothing to stormy. I think they are talking about severe Tuesday morning but with the way they have been going, I don't trust they are conveying the threat.

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Has anyone heard from Blizzardof96? He hasn't had an online presence in almost two months and he posted to twitter almost daily

Ive been up north for the last 8 weeks-- away from technology so only had time for very brief glances at the wx. Now that I'm back in TO, I'll start tweeting/posting more frequently. Hope y'all are having a nice summer.

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Ive been up north for the last 8 weeks-- away from technology so only had time for very brief glances at the wx. Now that I'm back in TO, I'll start tweeting/posting more frequently. Hope y'all are having a nice summer.

 

Welcome back! We had no idea where you went haha. Hope the trip was fun!

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