WestCoaster Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 This has to be one of the sunniest Winters that I can remember in recent memory. 2011-12 was fairly dry as well. We need to develop a more active weather pattern in the coming weeks, otherwise we may run into some drought problems for the upcoming growing season. The last time YYZ recorded above average precipitation was September, lol. I don't think drought will be a concern. We have a decent amount of water content in the snow on the ground. Also, with the lakes being so cold, lake breeze fronts may be very common (much like last summer) with bands of rain sitting stationary over areas near the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I don't think it will. They're not picking up on the coldfront that both the GFS and EURO backdoor us with. GGEM is warmer and that probably explains their forecast. They've already nudged down temps 1-2c from yesterday and they'll probably have to do more so. I'd like one more storm just to get us up to normal snowfall for the season (we are waaaaay overdue for an early April slush storm). The last one that dropped more than a few cms has got to be at least 10 years ago...maybe 15. We had an April slush storm last year. April 15th saw a general 2-4" across Toronto. I don't remember how it was in other cities in Southern Ontario. Last years was also one of the latest significant snowfalls Ive seen in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 We had an April slush storm last year. April 15th saw a general 2-4" across Toronto. I don't remember how it was in other cities in Southern Ontario. Last years was also one of the latest significant snowfalls Ive seen in the city. I was in Edmonton at the time so no first hand experience but both the downtown station and Pearson recorded AOB 3cm with that event. Even North York only had 4cm. edit: Buttonville: 1.4cm. Were you in KW at the time? May have been a bigger deal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 I don't think drought will be a concern. We have a decent amount of water content in the snow on the ground. Also, with the lakes being so cold, lake breeze fronts may be very common (much like last summer) with bands of rain sitting stationary over areas near the shore. It has been pretty dry since the fall. We're a long way off from drought but if this pattern were to continue, it's at least a distant concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I don't think it will. They're not picking up on the coldfront that both the GFS and EURO backdoor us with. GGEM is warmer and that probably explains their forecast. They've already nudged down temps 1-2c from yesterday and they'll probably have to do more so. I'd like one more storm just to get us up to normal snowfall for the season (we are waaaaay overdue for an early April slush storm). The last one that dropped more than a few cms has got to be at least 10 years ago...maybe 15. Don't forget the ice pellet storm of April 2003...although come to think of it that was 12 years ago now, so you're about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Today 15 years ago southern Ontario had one of the most extreme departures of temperature that I know of. A lot of places saw their high temperature reach over 20.0ºC and Windsor was somewhere around 26.5ºC to 28ºC. YYZ saw 21.1ºC, UW weather station 24.04ºC, and MBY 24ºC. I consider it the earliest 20ºC reading in general except Windsor ON? Unfortunately I don't remember that actual day and I found it sometime in 2006 when looking at data. Today was the first time this winter snow was melting noticeably. Felt alright with the sun finally making my mood change in a positive direction. This month will be the "recovery" from what February brought. Good summary out today from UW about February 2015 there being the coldest month in the record books: Link: http://uwweatherstation.blogspot.ca/2015/03/february-2015-summary.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The snowpack is so cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 February weather summary from the University of Waterloo weather station Not only was it the coldest February in the 100 years of weather records in the region, but it was also the coldest of any month. The average temperature was -15.1°C, putting it well below the previous coldest months which were February 1934 (-13.3°C) and January 1994 (-13.2°C). Even though last year seemed really cold at the time, at an average of -11.6°C, it was practically balmy compared to this year. Overall, it was over 9 degrees below average with many of the daily high temperatures not even getting up to the average low temperatures for that day. Also of note was the low temperature we saw on Family Day (Feb 16) which was -34.9°C, beating the previous low of -32.3°C on January 27, 2005. The precipitation got off to a fast start for the month but ended in the average range with 48.2 mm (note that because the solid precipitation gauge at the UW weather station was not working this is based on the Environment Canada station called ”Waterloo Wellington 2”). The snowfall we received of 54 cm was well above the average of 30.3 cm for the month. Summary for February 2015: Maximum Temperature -1.7°C Minimum Temperature -34.9°C Average Daily High Temperature -8.9°C (Long term average -1.2°C) Average Daily Low Temperature -21.2°C (Long term average -9.7°C) Total Precipitation 48.2 mm (Long term average 54.9 mm) (Long term averages based on 1981-2010 data for the Waterloo Wellington Airport) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2015 Author Share Posted March 9, 2015 The snowpack is so cool Looks very similar to the pics from SE MI I've been seeing. Interestingly, here in London, I haven't noticed that glossiness to the ssnowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 The snowpack is so cool I've never seen a snowpack ever look like that. Looks like what snow would look like after a huge ice storm. Does it only look like that at night because of the re-freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 I've never seen a snowpack ever look like that. Looks like what snow would look like after a huge ice storm. Does it only look like that at night because of the re-freeze? It's been glossy day and night, but its already taken a huge hit this morning with the 0c temp and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 It's been glossy day and night, but its already taken a huge hit this morning with the 0c temp and sun. That's what I was concerned about, hopefully someone is taking more pics during the day before it changes. Did anyone notice last Thursday on CTV Kitchener news during the weather, Lindsay said that the overnight low (Friday morning) was not going to be as cold as the previous night? What happened was it turned out to be much colder instead and that's when the last batch of record lows were set . I then watched Friday's evening news and Lindsay never said a word about the tremendous blunder but talked instead about the record lows and moved on...the age of TV weather presenters/mets not owning up to anything or explaining busts is about to be over via drop in viewers. The general public has already had enough of the sweeping the dirt under the carpet business. I watched the noon hour edition of CTV kitchener just more than a hour ago and they reached a new low, the sports guy did the weather for the first time that I know of! Never seen that since watching non-routinely since the early 90s. Soon there will only be 2 personalities on there instead of the 3 currently lol. On top of that, recycled news from Friday was used in today's edition . As for the weather, Randy seemed hooked on precip. that was falling to the far west of lake Superior. You can thank Bell telecommunications for all this (owner of CTV). The 7 day forecast from Randy's stint now shows 2 days in a row of 9ºC as the high there...isn't that an increase when discussion on here was indicating a lowering? I hope the high predictions pan out of course. Then showing double digit highs at the end of the 7 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 CTV Kitchener doesn't staff an actual meteorologist anymore, and Lyndsay Morrison is just a tv journalist specializing in weather presentation as she spent 6 years working at TWN. The staple of the weather segment is to relay the EC 7 day forecast, and they probably get their weather maps from services such as Wunderground. She knows a thing or two about the weather, but how deep that knowledge goes is anyone's guess. She does a good job, but it's not her fault the temp forecast busted because she was only relaying what EC had forecasted. They have a small team at that station now, and the sports presenter usually fills in for Lyndsay during her time off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Big model and EC forecast discrepancies for today. EC has us getting up to 9C today, probably based solely on the CMC but the NCEP models including the HRRR don't have us getting past about 4.5C. Not sure if the Canadian is properly handling the effect of the cold frozen lakes. Yesterday had full sun and may actually end up being the nicer day in terms of feel, as more cloud cover is in store today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 Big model and EC forecast discrepancies for today. EC has us getting up to 9C today, probably based solely on the CMC but the NCEP models including the HRRR don't have us getting past about 4.5C. Not sure if the Canadian is properly handling the effect of the cold frozen lakes. Yesterday had full sun and may actually end up being the nicer day in terms of feel, as more cloud cover is in store today. Thinking the truth is in the middle. EC went for 7c yesterday as a high in Toronto and we topped out at ~5.5c, so some initial evidence that they're running warm. Initially, I thought today would be our best chance to get toasty, but earlier the flow was looking more SW. Now, with the flow looking to stay onshore, I'd be shocked if anywhere east of London got to the double digits (maybe Niagara?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 That's what I was concerned about, hopefully someone is taking more pics during the day before it changes. This was Friday afternoon on my street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 Started out with a forecasted high of 10, down to 9 at the 11am update, and now a 12:05 update revising it further downward to 8. Doubt we even get that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Started out with a forecasted high of 10, down to 9 at the 11am update, and now a 12:05 update revising it further downward to 8. Doubt we even get that warm. Yeah didn't think we would make any of those highs today. Cloud cover is too limiting. HRRR did a nice job of picking this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 CTV Kitchener doesn't staff an actual meteorologist anymore, and Lyndsay Morrison is just a tv journalist specializing in weather presentation as she spent 6 years working at TWN. The staple of the weather segment is to relay the EC 7 day forecast, and they probably get their weather maps from services such as Wunderground. She knows a thing or two about the weather, but how deep that knowledge goes is anyone's guess. She does a good job, but it's not her fault the temp forecast busted because she was only relaying what EC had forecasted. They have a small team at that station now, and the sports presenter usually fills in for Lyndsay during her time off. I wondered about that, staffing an actual meteorologist. I knew the Lyndsay Morrison background because she was at TWN and then when she left that, and suddenly went to CTV I absolutely couldn't believe she was the replacement for both Dave McDonald and Ross Hull. Not even at TWN for as long as many. I had no idea they are going the lazy route and relaying EC content. How deep Lyndsay's knowledge goes, well I have a few guesses. I see Darren usually fill in for Lyndsay but days ago was the first for Randy that I've observed. All she needed to do was admit the forecast was wrong, that's all. Again, thank Bell. This image right here pretty much sums up why 2014 was the worst year in modern times. We here pretty much were the coldest compared to normal anywhere on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 Another day, another botched EC temp forecast. I'm not sure what they were huffing to think it would get up to 10 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 14, 2015 Author Share Posted March 14, 2015 I wondered about that, staffing an actual meteorologist. I knew the Lyndsay Morrison background because she was at TWN and then when she left that, and suddenly went to CTV I absolutely couldn't believe she was the replacement for both Dave McDonald and Ross Hull. Not even at TWN for as long as many. I had no idea they are going the lazy route and relaying EC content. How deep Lyndsay's knowledge goes, well I have a few guesses. I see Darren usually fill in for Lyndsay but days ago was the first for Randy that I've observed. All she needed to do was admit the forecast was wrong, that's all. Again, thank Bell. This image right here pretty much sums up why 2014 was the worst year in modern times. We here pretty much were the coldest compared to normal anywhere on earth. Great map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Another day, another botched EC temp forecast. I'm not sure what they were huffing to think it would get up to 10 today. The trend should continue for tomorrow. EC has a high of 46f for YYZ. The NAM has a high between 34-39f and is backed by the UKM/EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 I noticed that EC has revised their temperatures for the upcoming week, keeping temperatures in the 30s from Tuesday on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Went to Guelph yesterday and saw a difference in whats left of the snow pack. There are still piles along the edges of driveways here, and lawns still have a couple inches of snow cover. Heading along Hwy 7 there were snow covered fields until about the Wellington County line near Lees Diner, and then a significant thinning occurred all the way to Guelph where there were a lot of bare lawns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 Charlottetown and maybe Moncton are going to finish the winter with 500cm+ snow. And this isn't like LES. We're talking sub 10-15:1 type snow usually. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 This was Friday afternoon on my street im late to reply but that was the most unique looking snowpack I've ever seen. We had the shiny look about 5 days here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 GRCA uploaded some awesome aerial photos as part of their spring flood forecasting work. Love this one of Guelph! Also gives you a good idea of our remaining snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Looks like our first shot at some thunderstorms will come tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Looks like it might be an interesting week of weather in our region. Thunderstorms possibly followed by snow next week. The latest run of the European has insane - and likely overdone - snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 Looks like it might be an interesting week of weather in our region. Thunderstorms possibly followed by snow next week. The latest run of the European has insane - and likely overdone - snow amounts. 7 day total: 0.3". Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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