Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like the snow should start around midday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Kind of worried about the speed in which the dryslot is going to punch in here and strip away all our mid level moisture. Which is why I'm hesitant to go above 8cm. Actually wouldn't surprise me if we stay mostly snow. NAM is the warmest model (I think) and is showing only a narrow warm layer at 750mb of about +1.5c. RGEM is all snow. Ya, the dryslot is going to be be aggressive today. Looks like we have ~6-8hrs of snow followed by a couple hours of SNPL. Should thump pretty nicely for a while.Feeling comfortable with 6-11cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ya, the dryslot is going to be be aggressive today. Looks like we have ~6-8hrs of snow followed by a couple hours of SNPL. Should thump pretty nicely for a while. Feeling comfortable with 6-11cm. Looks like the evening rush hour is going to be a mess. Still, I'd prefer that than the morning rush hour given it means I don't have to get up early to dig out the car! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 How much freezing rain are we looking at? No amounts in the forecasts or warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 How much freezing rain are we looking at? No amounts in the forecasts or warnings A few mm max. Frankly, it may not get as far north as you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 A few mm max. Frankly, it may not get as far north as you. Oh okay. Would love to cash in on some ice pellets doesn't happen too often here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mod SN at my work 1/2 sm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Freezing rain warnings issued. Accretion doing well already. Decent glaze down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like snowfall amounts were duddish in and around the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Seems almost inconceivable given how harsh this winter felt but it looks like the U of T station has a probable shot of finishing the season below normal in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Really only ZR for about half an hour. Just a drizzle now. Not sure the warning was warranted, which is why I suppose EC rolled it back so quickly. Not sure what their threshold is for a freezing rain warning (if any). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The streak ends at 38 days as the temperature finally goes above freezing at YYZ since Jan 24. Quite the decent amount of records in recent years. Here's a brief summary. Note this is for Winter only. 06-07: 30 consecutive days below freezing from Jan 20th to Feb 18th. Ranks 5th overall. I think we saw the least snowiest December on record that Winter as well. I'm not sure. 07-08: Second snowiest winter on record at YYZ and snowiest February on record at YYZ. 08-09: Second or third snowiest December on record at YYZ if i'm not mistaken. 09-10: Second least snowiest Winter on record. 11-12: Least snowiest winter on record and the infamous "Morch". 12-13: A top 5 snowiest February on record. 13-14: Most consecutive snow cover days on record at YYZ. And a top 10 coldest on record I think. And the great ice storm too. 14-15: Coldest February on record and 38 consecutive days below freezing. Ranks 3rd overall. Decided to put things into more perspective and realize the true scope of what we've experienced in the past few years. Interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The streak ends at 38 days as the temperature finally goes above freezing at YYZ since Jan 24. Quite the decent amount of records in recent years. Here's a brief summary. Note this is for Winter only. 06-07: 30 consecutive days below freezing from Jan 20th to Feb 18th. Ranks 5th overall. I think we saw the least snowiest December on record that Winter as well. I'm not sure. 07-08: Second snowiest winter on record at YYZ and snowiest February on record at YYZ. 08-09: Second or third snowiest December on record at YYZ if i'm not mistaken. 09-10: Second least snowiest Winter on record. 11-12: Least snowiest winter on record and the infamous "Morch". 12-13: A top 5 snowiest February on record. 13-14: Most consecutive snow cover days on record at YYZ. And a top 10 coldest on record I think. And the great ice storm too. 14-15: Coldest February on record and 38 consecutive days below freezing. Ranks 3rd overall. Decided to put things into more perspective and realize the true scope of what we've experienced in the past few years. Interesting to say the least. Throw in the Toronto and Burlington floods, August 20 2009 tornado outbreak, August 19 2005 storm outbreak, Dec 2013 ice storm, August 2 2006 tornado outbreak, etc etc. We're breaking records left and right.Even in KW we've been experiencing new records on things like most rain in a hr(which I think we broke twice in the last 5 years), high and low temps etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This winter was essentially a redux of last season with less storms (drier) and a more impressive cold wave in February. And a December temperature reprieve. Given that I hate the cold and love snow, you can imagine how this winter has been for me Unfortunately, no big dogs really this winter. No storms over 25 cm, no prolonged events of +SN, no visibilities of less than 1/4 SM for any worthwhile period of time. Just endless cold. Any snow that seemed to fall this season was so fine. I miss dendrites. I'd take the risk of riding the rain/snow line to cash in on some deep cement snow any day. I'm ready for a different winter. Something more variable. This current pattern (which has lasted since Fall 2013!!) doesn't bring much variability. If you're lucky to get an active jet, it dips back down south and you have to wait another 10 days for a shot at some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 YKF only made it to -0.1 yesterday, which means its been 58 days since the temperature went above 0 there. Don't know how that fits into the record stretch territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 If we didn't have the 10.5" of early season LES in November, Kitchener would be sitting at 40.6" right now. 51.1" through March 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 If we didn't have the 10.5" of early season LES in November, Kitchener would be sitting at 40.6" right now. 51.1" through March 3rd. At least a chance you guys finish below normal as well. Even with a couple of decent storms, that 6 week dead period from mid December until the end of January was really hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 At least a chance you guys finish below normal as well. Even with a couple of decent storms, that 6 week dead period from mid December until the end of January was really hurt us. I wouldn't mind closing below average if it means we'll warm up soon. As someone who relies on public transportation who is currently living in the boonies of the Waterloo mass transit system, I've about had it with walking and waiting for buses in the cold. My lips are chapped beyond repair, and my knuckles have been split open from sandpaper-like dry skin since January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I went through my severe wx bulletin emails since 2005 and made a list of days under wind chill/extreme cold warnings in Waterloo Region. Waterloo Region Jan.-Mar. Days Under Wind Chill/Extreme Cold Warning since 2005:2015: 20 days.2014: 21 days.2009: 2 days.2008: 2 days.2007: 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Going to be some serious battles between the lake shadow and SW down slopping this spring. After a brief taste of spring, I'm thinking the pattern gets wintry again past 3/20. Weve had snowy march/april's over the past few years and this year should be no exception IMO relative to climo. Friday Aft on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Going to be some serious battles between the lake shadow and SW down slopping this spring. After a brief taste of spring, I'm thinking the pattern gets wintry again past 3/20. Weve had snowy march/april's over the past few years and this year should be no exception IMO relative to climo. Friday Aft on the euro Screen Shot 2015-03-05 at 2.55.51 PM.png Im used to it. This year will suck, but I live essentially right on top of the lake. So I have never seen spring temperatures at the same time as most of the GTA. Theres always those few days that will sting though. Ive driven from a friends house in central Mississauga and watched the temperature go from 14C and sunny to 5C and foggy by the time I reached my house. I think the cold lakes won't bring anything new to lakeshore communities but will create conditions where people further away from the lake also experience the colder and misty conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Another cold night, another record low min. set for the date. Currently -25.1 C at the airport. This is getting a bit much for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EVENT INFORMATION RECEIVED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AS OF 7.00 AM. LOCATION NEW RECORD (CELSIUS) WINDSOR AIRPORT -22.0 PREVIOUS RECORD -17.2 IN 1960 RIDGETOWN -21.3 PREVIOUS RECORD -20.0 IN 1890 SARNIA -19.6 PREVIOUS RECORD -19.4 IN 1978 LONDON -26.0 PREVIOUS RECORD -20.7 IN 1978 DELHI -25.9 PREVIOUS RECORD -21.6 IN 2007 WATERLOO AIRPORT -23.3 PREVIOUS RECORD -22.7 IN 2007 ELORA -25.1 PREVIOUS RECORD -23.3 IN 2007 GUELPH (INCOMPLETE RECORD) -26.1 TIED RECORD -26.1 IN 1948 WELLAND -24.4 PREVIOUS RECORD -22.2 IN 2014 OSHAWA -25.2 PREVIOUS RECORD -22.0 IN 2007 BARRIE -27.2 PREVIOUS RECORD -25.0 IN 2007 MUSKOKA -31.0 PREVIOUS RECORD -28.9 IN 1948 BEATRICE -30.7 PREVIOUS RECORD -29.4 IN 1928 BROCKVILLE -30.0 PREVIOUS RECORD -25.0 IN 2007 PETAWAWA -30.3 PREVIOUS RECORD -28.6 IN 2007 THE FOLLOWING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE WITHIN 1 DEGREE OF THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY. HAMILTON -21.3 CURRENT RECORD -21.7 IN 2007 PETERBOROUGH -28.4 CURRENT RECORD -28.7 IN 2014 UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO -26.0 CURRENT WATERLOO REGION RECORD IS -26.7 FROM KITCHENER IN 1948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 U of T station updated. They've got 103.1cm on the season. Need another 18.4cm for normal. Unless we get a late season storm, that's going to be very tough to pull off. Nickel/dime portion of the winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Tuesday might get toasty but otherwise I think EC is too warm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Tuesday might get toasty but otherwise I think EC is too warm next week. What else is new? It's odd that EC forecasts often don't even reflect what their own model says for the medium term. Their forecasts on the EC site often seem to have a warm bias in the winter. By the way, the weather is starting to look intriguing next weekend, as per the GFS. It might be ice as opposed to snow though, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 What else is new? It's odd that EC forecasts often don't even reflect what their own model says for the medium term. Their forecasts on the EC site often seem to have a warm bias in the winter. By the way, the weather is starting to look intriguing next weekend, as per the GFS. It might be ice as opposed to snow though, unfortunately. I'm opposed to snow. No longer interested. Ice might be interesting, but not too much... I really hope EC's temperature forecast pans out. Bring on spring. Completely done with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2015 Author Share Posted March 8, 2015 I'm opposed to snow. No longer interested. Ice might be interesting, but not too much... I really hope EC's temperature forecast pans out. Bring on spring. Completely done with the cold. I don't think it will. They're not picking up on the coldfront that both the GFS and EURO backdoor us with. GGEM is warmer and that probably explains their forecast. They've already nudged down temps 1-2c from yesterday and they'll probably have to do more so. I'd like one more storm just to get us up to normal snowfall for the season (we are waaaaay overdue for an early April slush storm). The last one that dropped more than a few cms has got to be at least 10 years ago...maybe 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I don't think it will. They're not picking up on the coldfront that both the GFS and EURO backdoor us with. GGEM is warmer and that probably explains their forecast. They've already nudged down temps 1-2c from yesterday and they'll probably have to do more so. I'd like one more storm just to get us up to normal snowfall for the season (we are waaaaay overdue for an early April slush storm). The last one that dropped more than a few cms has got to be at least 10 years ago...maybe 15. I don't think it will either. I don't see any model showing those types of temps. However, many times when I've done my own forecasting in Spring, I do find that temperature forecasts are really tough to do with the stronger sun when there is no real distinct airmass. I usually busted low. I find that SW wind can make dramatic jump in temperature, but with the lakes in the condition that they are... temperatures could be a struggle to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 This has to be one of the sunniest Winters that I can remember in recent memory. 2011-12 was fairly dry as well. We need to develop a more active weather pattern in the coming weeks, otherwise we may run into some drought problems for the upcoming growing season. The last time YYZ recorded above average precipitation was September, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.