Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Climate change is a global issue not just an issue involving Ottawa, you have to look at a broader scope of things. Very true. I agree. However, while we were having a couple of mild winters a few years back, places like Europe and northeast Asia were having very cold winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is basically where I'm at. I was a skeptic (although not a denier) for the longest time but the vast number of experts who are supportive of theory of AGW, and the paucity of legitimate voices on the other side has made me change my tune. GW is almost certainly happening, and anthropogenic sources are at least a substantial contributing factor to this. What I certainly don't subscribe to is speciously linking every sensible weather event to AGW. It's makes supporters of AGW, who like to think they have a monopoly on rationality, seem reactionary. Agree, particularly with the last part. The climate is changing, there's no doubt about it. Humans emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is certainly a contributing factor, basic atmospheric physics proves this. By changing the composition of the atmosphere, you affect the global radiation balance, there's no two ways about it. But when the media and politicians blame any severe weather event on climate change, it really irks me. As Stebo said, you have to assess climate change impacts on a global basis AND over a long time scale. Simply looking at one single data point within a huge data set and drawing conclusions is ludicrous and isn't science. It would be like looking at a single ensemble member and concluding that will be the final storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 CBC just aired a report on how global warming and, more specifically, the warming arctic is to blame for this frigid February. Of course they didn't interview anyone with an alternate explanation. I suppose arctic warming also caused the frigid Februaries of 1934, 1875, 1885 and 1904 in Ontario, not to mention the three severe winters in a row in the late 1970s.Of course those years were not even mentioned in the report. Also, weren't winters always cold and frigid back in the day? The CBC is simply terrible when it comes to balanced reporting - as biased left wing as Fox News is right wing. I mean, seriously, at least include someone in the report who offers an alternate explanation. To me, when you do a news report you should interview people with differing views and explanations, then let the viewer decide. These people are grasping at straws. A decade ago, David Suzuki was saying backyard ice rinks might soon become extinct in southern Ontario due to rapidly warming winters - an entire cultural phenomenon might die he said. Now we've had two very cold winters in a row and the longest continuous stretch of skating on Ottawa's Rideau Canal...and it's supposedly caused by the same climate change that was originally supposed to make these cold winters less common, if not extinct as Ontario's climate became more like that of southern Ohio. Sorry for the off topic post. The situation with the whole climate change ordeal is quite complicated. Two sides feuding against each other without any of them providing a solid conclusive explantation. Based on my research alot of flaws exist in the study of climate and how it changes over a period of time. You do have a good point about single-handedly picking out small pieces and blaming the whole notion on one simple answer. It holds no value. The climate is volatile and we've seen just how volatile it is when analyzing ice core samples for example. In the last i think 400,000 years we've experienced numerous ice ages or cooler periods and almost an equal amount of warmer periods. To say this current warming is something out of the ordinary draws on questions. The difference from lets say 1000 years ago and now is the industrial revolution and urban development. Alot of these ground based thermometers, where firms like GISS or HadCRUT gather there data from, are within urban areas. If one were to pick out some of these locations and analyze there data, you'd notice not much has changed expect overnight low temperatures and summer temperatures due to daytime heating and more lower albedo. However, this wouldn't be imperative because it holds no significance when compared to the Earth as a whole. The media perpetuates everything and I have a hard time listening to them because there so biased. Weather and climate are TWO different things. I do agree that humans have played a small contribution to the overall rise in temperatures since the last ice age, but no where near the extent to where some place it to be. The Earth's climate is always changing. Its a natural cycle thats been going on long before humans came to be and it will never stop. These past 5-7 years alone have shown us how fragile the climate is in the Arctic and how small subtile changes could have a great impact on the Sea Ice growth and retraction. I think nature is playing a much larger role in driving changes in temperatures. In one aspect, the Earth hasn't warmed in the last 18+ years and some of these "scientists" have been coming up with some crazy and idiotic ideas as to why. Its unbelievable. Besides a warmer world is better than a colder world any day, haha! Thats my two cents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Feeling fairly confident on 1-3" with wave one on sunday. For the wednesday threat, most models have a significant front end thump. What happens beyond that point is very uncertain but soil temps may end up being a factor. 4cm depth temps are ~15f and won't have a chance to warm up very much. If we do see rain, there could be more ZR than expected. Much more interesting than vodka cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Feeling fairly confident on 1-3" with wave one on sunday. For the wednesday threat, most models have a significant front end thump. What happens beyond that point is very uncertain but soil temps may end up being a factor. 4cm depth temps are ~15f and won't have a chance to warm up very much. If we do see rain, there could be more ZR than expected. Much more interesting than vodka cold. Have to admit that I'm ready for a warm-up come 12:01 am on March 1st. Just wanted to set a record for February and it looks like we've done that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Have to admit that I'm ready for a warm-up come 12:01 am on March 1st. Just wanted to set a record for February and it looks like we've done that. The all time record is about to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2015 Author Share Posted February 27, 2015 Have to admit that I'm ready for a warm-up come 12:01 am on March 1st. Just wanted to set a record for February and it looks like we've done that. The all time record is about to fall. Yup. It's locked up. Coldest month ever at any official Toronto climate observation location. edit: or at the very worst...at least a tie with 1875. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Very impressive. Wish I would have paid more attention in a way. It was just too darn cold to embrace. It's cool knowing that the rest of our lives will probably be warmer than what we've just experienced (assuming we never leave YYZ that is). Quite the record to fall; an historic moment. I guess I'm ok with the general public complaining about the cold this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yup. It's locked up. Coldest month ever at any official Toronto climate observation location. edit: or at the very worst...at least a tie with 1875. I think the only station that beat it was Toronto Agincourt in February 1934. http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ON&StationID=5052&dlyRange=1895-11-01|1968-01-31&Year=1934&Month=2&Day=01 However, Toronto Buttonville looks to beat that this month and, back in 1934, Agincourt would have been more rural than Buttonville is today. So...it truly has been the coldest GTA month on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Feeling fairly confident on 1-3" with wave one on sunday. For the wednesday threat, most models have a significant front end thump. What happens beyond that point is very uncertain but soil temps may end up being a factor. 4cm depth temps are ~15f and won't have a chance to warm up very much. If we do see rain, there could be more ZR than expected. Much more interesting than vodka cold. If everything falls into place we might have a legitimate glacier outside this time next week. I have about 8-10 inches of snow on the ground with 1-3" coming sunday. Couple that with a somewhat warmer low and a mix of snow, rain, ice pellets and then back to sub freezing temperatures will create a glacier. The perfect type of snow pack to see an extended snow cover season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This month's overall anomaly and standard Deviation could be more impressive than any other month in TO history. Can anyone find any exceptions at YYZ? Here are a few examples. This Feb is just unbelievable. Month Year Anom Std Feb 2015 8.0 3.5 March 2012 6.6 3.3 Feb 1979 6.3 2.7 Jan 1994 7.9 2.5 July 1992 3.5 2.3 July 2012 3.2 2.1 Jan 1981 4.7 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 This month's overall anomaly and standard Deviation could be more impressive than any other month in TO history. Can anyone find any exceptions? Here are a few examples. This Feb is just unbelievable. Month Year Anom Std Feb 2015 8.0 3.5 March 2012 6.6 3.3 Feb 1979 6.3 2.7 Jan 1994 7.9 2.5 July 2012 3.2 2.1 Jan 1981 4.7 1.5 Wow. What do these numbers even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Wow. What do these numbers even mean? I gave headings at the top. Std=Standard Dev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The Lake breeze is going to be ridiculous this spring. Already bracing for 40's with easterly flow north of the boundary. Going to be a slow process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I gave headings at the top. Std=Standard Dev.Anom is below avg temp and std is departure from norm?March 2012 is 2nd because of how unseasonably warm it was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Anom is below avg temp and std is departure from norm? March 2012 is 2nd because of how unseasonably warm it was? Monthly temp anom is the difference between the mean temp in a particular month when compared to the normal mean in that month. Std is the temp anomaly when standardized for a particular month/time of year (e.g Jan has more anomalous temps so one Std requires a >temp deviation than a Std in June). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Monthly temp anom is the difference between the mean temp in a particular month when compared to the normal mean in that month. Std is the temp anomaly when standardized for a particular month/time of year (e.g Jan has more anomalous temps so one Std requires a >temp deviation than a Std in June). Surprising last winter didn't make the top 6 in Toronto Thanks for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Monthly temp anom is the difference between the mean temp in a particular month when compared to the normal mean in that month. Std is the temp anomaly when standardized for a particular month/time of year (e.g Jan has more anomalous temps so one Std requires a >temp deviation than a Std in June). Pretty cool we have seen two extremes in only a couple years. March 2012 was amazing. shorts and t-shirts for st.pattys at university doesn't get much better. Green grass by mid march and beginning leaf out end of march. Felt strange to see the 5 day forecast saying low 20s and sunny with lows around 10C. I personally think the march 2012 was a bigger event because it made a borderline winter month into a summer month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The Lake breeze is going to be ridiculous this spring. Already bracing for 40's with easterly flow north of the boundary. Going to be a slow process. The summers of 1934 and 1979 were both near average in terms of temperatures for the region. I'd suspect something similar for this summer unless Spring is warmer than normal. Hopefully we get a wet spring as its been awfully dry of late. The last time YYZ recorded precipitation that was near average was September, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 So now many cities in Ontario are not only breaking the record coldest February, but now coldest for any month? Didn't think I'd ever see that, and my mood reflects it. This month's overall anomaly and standard Deviation could be more impressive than any other month in TO history. Can anyone find any exceptions at YYZ? Here are a few examples. This Feb is just unbelievable. Month Year Anom Std Feb 2015 8.0 3.5 March 2012 6.6 3.3 Feb 1979 6.3 2.7 Jan 1994 7.9 2.5 July 1992 3.5 2.3 July 2012 3.2 2.1 Jan 1981 4.7 1.5 I'm shocked that its more extreme for Toronto than March 2012. I guess it wasn't as crazy there as it was IMBY and parts of Central Ontario and the mid-west, etc. Where did you get the Std data from? The Lake breeze is going to be ridiculous this spring. Already bracing for 40's with easterly flow north of the boundary. Going to be a slow process. Just hellish, my nightmare continues. I was hoping for a lot of fog last Spring because of the GL ice coverage and that could make things interesting but I didn't notice more than usual. Pretty cool we have seen two extremes in only a couple years. March 2012 was amazing. shorts and t-shirts for st.pattys at university doesn't get much better. Green grass by mid march and beginning leaf out end of march. Felt strange to see the 5 day forecast saying low 20s and sunny with lows around 10C. I personally think the march 2012 was a bigger event because it made a borderline winter month into a summer month I posted what I thought of March 2012 in the thread of what weather events we'd most like to experience (or again), and March 2012 is the first one to come to mind. One of the highlights of the decade. When I saw the 5 day forecast during the Great March Heatwave, it was the best strange feeling you can have...one that you can't forget. It goes without saying that the Great March Heatwave was the biggest anomalous event of all time, this February cold doesn't even get close overall despite Toronto's sigma, because the region of extremes was far broader, and anomalous like areas west, south. A day or two had Winnipeg's forecast high of 30ºC with a humidex of 32C when the average high for the same day was -0.6ºC or close to it. I then wondered how often that kind of extreme would occur in March and guessed once in 500 years but then The Weather Network blurted out once in 1000 years. The Great March Heatwave overall is estimated to be a once in 2000-4000 year event. More rare than another Super Outbreak, 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, 1998 Canadian Ice Storm, Tri-State Tornado type disaster, etc. Also, did I just read that someone loved last summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 So now many cities in Ontario are not only breaking the record coldest February, but now coldest for any month? Didn't think I'd ever see that, and my mood reflects it. I'm shocked that its more extreme for Toronto than March 2012. I guess it wasn't as crazy there as it was IMBY and parts of Central Ontario and the mid-west, etc. Where did you get the Std data from? Calculated myself with the help of EC data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 And now its midnight, the records are history and Global TV Toronto didn't mention it...I'm relieved to not have to live through that February ever again...I hope . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If we manage to stay below freezing with the mid week system we should make a run at 1978 for 2nd most consecutive days below 0c. 1977 will be very tough to reach. Current rankings 1977 51 Days 1978 41 Days 2015 35 Days 1985 35 Days 2007 30 Days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 If we manage to stay below freezing with the mid week system we should make a run at 1978 for 2nd most consecutive days below 0c. 1977 will be very tough to reach. Current rankings 1977 51 Days 1978 41 Days 2015 35 Days 1985 35 Days 2007 30 Days As cold as 2013-14 was it's surprising it's not in the top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 As cold as 2013-14 was it's surprising it's not in the top 5. After treading back through some of the EC data from last winter, Feb was surprisingly volatile compared to 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 After treading back through some of the EC data from last winter, Feb was surprisingly volatile compared to 2015. February 2015 was about 4.2 degrees colder than February 2014. And yet, February 2014 was 3 degrees below normal. That alone speaks about the magnitude of the cold this past month. Can we make a run for another cold Winter next year like the year after year situation in the 60's and 70's? Lets see! I think March 2014 was a top 5 or top 10 coldest month on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Precip shield looking very robust on the HRRR. I smell an over performer in terms of total QPF when compared to RGEM/NAM although the SN/PL ratio is anyone's guess at this point. Could be the last sig thump of the season. Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Precip shield looking very robust on the HRRR. I smell an over performer in terms of total QPF when compared to RGEM/NAM although the SN/PL ratio is anyone's guess at this point. Could be the last sig thump of the season. Enjoy it. hrrr_ref_ne_16.png NAM has been consistently showing a QPF maxima along the escarpment while the RGEM has consistently showing a shadow. With a S/SSE flow I don't think the escarpment's going to come into play, one way or the other. Going to ride the SREFS for this. 5-8cm looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM has been consistently showing a QPF maxima along the escarpment while the RGEM has consistently showing a shadow. With a S/SSE flow I don't think the escarpment's going to come into play, one way or the other. Going to ride the SREFS for this. 5-8cm looks good. 2-4" looks good to me... all comes down to the SN/PL ratio as I think we have a good shot at 0.3-0.5" of QPF given the moisture advection out of the four corners region. Don't think down slopping will be an issue as you mentioned due to the direction of the LL flow. The RGEM is notorious for messing up topographical influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 2-4" looks good to me... all comes down to the SN/PL ratio as I think we have a good shot at 0.3-0.5" of QPF given the moisture advection out of the four corners region. Don't think down slopping will be an issue as you mentioned due to the direction of the LL flow. The RGEM is notorious for messing up topographical influence. Kind of worried about the speed in which the dryslot is going to punch in here and strip away all our mid level moisture. Which is why I'm hesitant to go above 8cm. Actually wouldn't surprise me if we stay mostly snow. NAM is the warmest model (I think) and is showing only a narrow warm layer at 750mb of about +1.5c. RGEM is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.