Snowstorms Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 As of Feb 16, mean temperature at YYZ for the month is -11.5C, which makes it the coldest February on record so far. Will it end officially as the coldest month on record? Let's see! The Arctic outbreak this week should increases our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 East side of the GTA getting pummeled on the SSW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 East side of the GTA getting pummeled on the SSW flow. Crazy. Freeking impressive considering the amount of ice on the lake. Inversion heights must be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 If the GFS forecast for next week verifies, Pearson airport should finish up with its coldest February on record and also with one of its coldest months on record. I think Ottawa airport has a chance of finishing with its coldest February as well. As for coldest on record, I think 1934 will still be the king, particularly in Ottawa given it saw a mean of -20.4C in February 1934. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'd lock in the model consensus right now. Looks like I solid 5 to maybe up to 10 cm event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'd lock in the model consensus right now. Looks like I solid 5 to maybe up to 10 cm event. This does me. While I'd obviously prefer more, I'm more interested in the cold at the moment as it looks like, if everything works out next week, we could be making history. I read a statistic today which said today marks the 43rd day of 2015 in which Ottawa has had a temperature of -15C (5F). The last year which saw that many was way back in 1888. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Waterloo Region now tied for coldest February on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM showing 4-6" for the GTA though it is probably a bit too amped at this range. Feeling pretty good about at least 2" with this thing, if not a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 YYZ Model summary for tomorrow's system EC/GFS/UK/RGEM/HRDPS: 0.3" NAM: ~0.2 Mean COBB ratio--13:1 Look locked and loaded for 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This does me. While I'd obviously prefer more, I'm more interested in the cold at the moment as it looks like, if everything works out next week, we could be making history. I read a statistic today which said today marks the 43rd day of 2015 in which Ottawa has had a temperature of -15C (5F). The last year which saw that many was way back in 1888. I'm honestly just not interested in the cold at all. This is pure hell. Make it stop. I pray for another Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Monday morning's record of -19.4c is almost certainly going to be broken. The coldest 850's of the season look to dive south and time well with the diurnal cycle Monday morning. We may make a run at last weekend's -25.4c... by comparison forecasted H85 temps are between -26 and -28c on the EC/GFS. 850mb temps were near -23/-24c with last weekend's cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Monday morning's record of -19.4c is almost certainly going to be broken. The coldest 850's of the season look to dive south and time well with the diurnal cycle Monday morning. We may make a run at last weekend's -25.4c... by comparison forecasted H85 temps are between -26 and -28c on the EC/GFS. 850mb temps were near -23/-24c with last weekend's cold shot. Pretty impressive stuff. I wonder how much of Lake Ontario will freeze this winter? Also, hopefully we don't have a midnight high on Monday to skew the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 5cms for tomorrow looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 5cms for tomorrow looks reasonable. Good to hear. Will be nice to freshen up the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Last minute trends in the models are not good for us. Perhaps only 1-2" ( or 2-5cm) in total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Last minute trends in the models are not good for us. Perhaps only 1-2" ( or 2-5cm) in total? I think 2-5cm is a safe bet. I don't see the potential for anymore. The main energy will likely be south of the region. Latest RUC has 5-8cm. Latest RAP through 18 hours has around 2-5cm. Stacking up slowly with nickels and dimes, haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I remember when some of the forecasted highs for today were close to freezing. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I remember when some of the forecasted highs for today were close to freezing. Not even close. Yes, it looks like this will be the first February since 1978 to not have a day above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Per TWN, YYZ came in with just over 4" yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We are going to smash the record for coldest February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We are going to smash the record for coldest February. Any idea where we are at so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Any idea where we are at so far? We have a good chance now at breaking the all time record for the coldest month ever at YYZ. Pretty amazing to say the least. To see it being broken in February, even though January is the coldest month per climo, is mind-boggling. Two back to back cold winters now. Should help out the situation with the receding waters in the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We have a good chance now at breaking the all time record for the coldest month ever at YYZ. Pretty amazing to say the least. To see it being broken in February, even though January is the coldest month per climo, is mind-boggling. Two back to back cold winters now. Should help out the situation with the receding waters in the Lakes. I keep hearing that statement but I haven't seen any hard numbers that support this. How are we stacking up right now compared to 79,34 or other contenders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 I keep hearing that statement but I haven't seen any hard numbers that support this. How are we stacking up right now compared to 79,34 or other contenders? I think the coldest February record *AT YYZ* (and that's important) is toast. -10.8c back in 79. We're at -12.3c right now and we might get a bit colder too. The coldest month ever at YYZ (I believe) was January 1994, at -12.4c. It's definitely in play. As for the all time downtown records, I have no clue. Just a ton of data that I've never had the attention span to parse through. You'd think EC would have this conveniently jotted down somewhere...but of course not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Any idea where we are at so far? -12.3 I believe is the median at YYZ right now. The coldest is -10.8 I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I think the coldest February record *AT YYZ* (and that's important) is toast. -10.8c back in 79. We're at -12.3c right now and we might get a bit colder too. The coldest month ever at YYZ (I believe) was January 1994, at -12.4c. It's definitely in play. As for the all time downtown records, I have no clue. Just a ton of data that I've never had the attention span to parse through. You'd think EC would have this conveniently jotted down somewhere...but of course not. Thanks for the info. Those are mean temp values I assume as opposed to anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Thanks for the info. Those are mean temp values I assume as opposed to anomalies? Yes, we are certainly not 12 degrees Celsius below seasonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 As of the 21st, the mean temp for Pearson Airport (YYZ) stands at -12.2 C. For downtown Toronto, it's -10.8 C. Right now, this is the 4th coldest February on record for downtown Toronto. Records go back to 1840. 1) 1875: -12.6 C 2) 1934: -12.1 C 3) 1885: -11.9 C 4) 2015: -10.8 C (as of Feb 21st) 5) 1904: -10.4 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 As of the 21st, the mean temp for Pearson Airport (YYZ) stands at -12.2 C. For downtown Toronto, it's -10.8 C. Right now, this is the 4th coldest February on record for downtown Toronto. Records go back to 1840. 1) 1875: -12.6 C 2) 1934: -12.1 C 3) 1885: -11.9 C 4) 2015: -10.8 C (as of Feb 21st) 5) 1904: -10.4 C The 21st hasn't updated yet at YYZ, but I'd assume -12.2C would be the number. Its -12.3C as of Friday. Using Friday's numbers, it would be unofficially the coldest month ever at YYZ. For downtown to beat 1885, we would need it to reach a minimum of -23C tonight and stay below -15C (low temps) for most of the week. Is that number in 1875 the coldest February temperature or in general, the coldest ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The 21st hasn't updated yet at YYZ, but I'd assume -12.2C would be the number. Its -12.3C as of Friday. Using Friday's numbers, it would be unofficially the coldest month ever at YYZ. For downtown to beat 1885, we would need it to reach a minimum of -23C tonight and stay below -15C (low temps) for most of the week. Is that number in 1875 the coldest February temperature or in general, the coldest ever? I used this link to fill in the missing data for the downtown station (18th, 19th and 21st): http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/historical-weather/caon0696 The 1875 figure is for the coldest February and overall in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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