WestCoaster Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Already at 1.5 cm down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Despite losing the lake effect signal on account of a slight eastward shift in the track of the clipper, EURO still dishes out an interesting looking trowal like feature over the city this weekend. The other models are further east with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If all goes to "plan", tomorrow's record low is about to fall at pearson with the lowest recorded temp back in 1979 at -23.2. GFS/NAM/EC have -25c/-26c/-27c Sunday morning will probably deserve a WC warning with brisk northerlies behind the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Extreme Cold Warning for all of Southern Ontario now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Assuming we finish this winter in the 100-110cm range for snowfall, I'd definitely rather have the distribution of that snowfall more alike a winter like 2003-04 or a 2012-13; one very snowy month with a big (30cm+) snowstorm, rather than it spread out in dribs and drabs over the course of the whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Assuming we finish this winter in the 100-110cm range for snowfall, I'd definitely rather have the distribution of that snowfall more alike a winter like 2003-04 or a 2012-13; one very snowy month with a big (30cm+) snowstorm, rather than it spread out in dribs and drabs over the course of the whole winter. Right now I have ~35" on the season with ~18 of that from the two big dogs. About half of the seasonal snowfall so far include event's I can't recall clearly(nickel and dimers). That's a decent ratio for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Right now I have ~35" on the season with ~18 of that from the two big dogs. About half of the seasonal snowfall so far include event's I can't recall clearly(nickel and dimers). That's a decent ratio for Toronto. You're correct. It actually hasn't been as drib or drabby as I stated. We've had two decent snowstorms, but we also had an incredible dead period between them. Would have turned my two 22cm storms into 15cm storms and redistributed the remainder into another ~15cm storm in between. Or, like I said earlier, maybe just dump everything into a single month. So easy to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ok, so here's the prize (YYZ): 1. Feb 1979: -10.8c 2. Feb 1978: -10.0c Currently for Feb 2015: -9.3c I think the gold is going to be just out of reach but if we get another impressive cold shot after the storm next week, could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You're correct. It actually hasn't been as drib or drabby as I stated. We've had two decent snowstorms, but we also had an incredible dead period between them. Would have turned my two 22cm storms into 15cm storms and redistributed the remainder into another ~15cm storm in between. Or, like I said earlier, maybe just dump everything into a single month. So easy to complain. I hear you. Thinking the midweek system has some promise(nice upstream ridge axis/ejection location). That confluence zone will want to pull north really quickly as any blocking is east based and weak. Tailer made NW trend with more s/w digging and WAA? Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Interesting tidbit: Ice coverage on Lk On spiked from 36% to 56% from 12z/yesterday to 12z/today. We may make a run at last year and perhaps the all time record of ~90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ok, so here's the prize (YYZ): 1. Feb 1979: -10.8c 2. Feb 1978: -10.0c Currently for Feb 2015: -9.3c I think the gold is going to be just out of reach but if we get another impressive cold shot after the storm next week, could be close. I think the all time record cold February is 1934 with a mean downtown of -12c, -13C at Agincourt and -20C at Ottawa. can you imagine a monthly mean of -20C? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I wonder if, under the right conditions, Pearson could make a run at -30C during one of these cold shots? It's only made it to this temperature a few times, including in January 1976, January 1981 and January 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the all time record cold February is 1934 with a mean downtown of -12c, -13C at Agincourt and -20C at Ottawa. can you imagine a monthly mean of -20C? Wow. Yeah, I didn't have the endurance to cull through the 150 years of data for the downtown station. But you're right, the records I posted only go back to 1937. Regardless, YYZ is the media's darling so if 1979's record is broken, as far as the general public is concerned, Feb 2015 will be the coldest on record for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Finest, densest, most sugary LES I've ever seen falling on London's west side. Despite the temps this is 10-11:1 type snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah, I didn't have the endurance to cull through the 150 years of data for the downtown station. But you're right, the records I posted only go back to 1937. Regardless, YYZ is the media's darling so if 1979's record is broken, as far as the general public is concerned, Feb 2015 will be the coldest on record for Toronto. I don't know about you, but this is something that really drives me to distraction with regard to Canadian forecasters and the Canadian media. Down in the states, they always reference early 20th century and 19th century records - Wunderground.com includes them on their website. In Canada, the media always refers to the airports only despite the fact that Toronto has records going all the way back to 1840 and Ottawa has records going back to 1889. They did it 2007-2008, for example. Technically, that winter was not Ottawa's second snowiest on record after 1970-1971, nor was 1970-1971 Ottawa's snowiest on record. The media did not reference the 19th century records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't know about you, but this is something that really drives me to distraction with regard to Canadian forecasters and the Canadian media. Down in the states, they always reference early 20th century and 19th century records - Wunderground.com includes them on their website. In Canada, the media always refers to the airports only despite the fact that Toronto has records going all the way back to 1840 and Ottawa has records going back to 1889. They did it 2007-2008, for example. Technically, that winter was not Ottawa's second snowiest on record after 1970-1971, nor was 1970-1971 Ottawa's snowiest on record. The media did not reference the 19th century records. Media gets informed about this stuff via EC or their in house weather staff. Neither are particularly good regarding climatology in our market. I noticed the downtown Toronto station recently lost its WMO accreditation. Might cause the media to shy away from referencing it further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Finest, densest, most sugary LES I've ever seen falling on London's west side. Despite the temps this is 10-11:1 type snow. Frictional convergence+very solid ∆t's performing nicely for a late winter evening. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Frictional convergence+very solid ∆t's performing nicely for a late winter evening. Enjoy. Thanks, but there's nothing to it. Maybe 3-3.5cm down and falling at a rate of about 0.5cm/hr. Overall, my first winter in London was somewhat underwhelming. With Huron getting iced up nicely, I think I'll have to put my hopes for a 45cm+ monster off until 2015-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Another big angle to this month's cold is that temperatures may not reach/go above the freezing mark for the rest of the month. If that happens, this would be the 2nd month in history (other month was Jan 1977) where temps failed to go above 0C/32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If all goes to "plan", tomorrow's record low is about to fall at pearson with the lowest recorded temp back in 1979 at -23.2. GFS/NAM/EC have -25c/-26c/-27c Sunday morning will probably deserve a WC warning with brisk northerlies behind the clipper. gfs_windchill_toronto_14.png As it stands now, I can't see us breaking the record tomorrow morning. Temperatures just aren't dropping fast enough. I'm at -17.3C and have only dropped two degrees Celsius in the past five hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 As it stands now, I can't see us breaking the record tomorrow morning. Temperatures just aren't dropping fast enough. I'm at -17.3C and have only dropped two degrees Celsius in the past five hours. Looks like we'll at least have gotten very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 As it stands now, I can't see us breaking the record tomorrow morning. Temperatures just aren't dropping fast enough. I'm at -17.3C and have only dropped two degrees Celsius in the past five hours. Looks like we were dangerously close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Close but no cigar it looks like but the exact numbers are overrated IMO. Cold is cold and it's damn cold. A NE/NNE flow would have done it as its always tough for temps to plummet under a NW flow if your east of the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Close but no cigar it looks like but the exact numbers are overrated IMO. Cold is cold and it's damn cold. A NE/NNE flow would have done it as its always tough for temps to plummet under a NW flow if your east of the escarpment. Yup. And if the same airmass on a NW flow swept over us a month ago when the lakes weren't as ice covered, it wouldn't have even been close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man that Niagara escarpment is useless around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Man that Niagara escarpment is useless around these parts. The Ice Storm of 2013 has something to say about that, in addition to every easterly flow event pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Close but no cigar it looks like but the exact numbers are overrated IMO. Cold is cold and it's damn cold. A NE/NNE flow would have done it as its always tough for temps to plummet under a NW flow if your east of the escarpment. Yup. And if the same airmass on a NW flow swept over us a month ago when the lakes weren't as ice covered, it wouldn't have even been close. I got down to what they forecasted, bottoming out at -23.5C this morning, essentially -24C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We got down to -30.3 overnight! Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I got down to what they forecasted, bottoming out at -23.5C this morning, essentially -24C. Models had temps AOB -25c up your way so they were still a bit low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS has been overdoing this cold snap; the GGEM has been spot-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.