snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 The cold advertised by the models indicate a potential for some record breaking temperatures. Georgian Bay has finally iced over and Lake Huron should be completely covered within the next 7-10 days (maybe earlier). It will be interesting to see how the ice coverage increases on Lake Ontario. To lighten the mood lets see if anyone can guess the coldest high and low for the upcoming cold shot at YYZ/YXU/BUF (BUF because we have a couple Buffalo posters that occasionally post in this forum) YYZ. High -15.1C and a Low of -22.4C YXU High -16.7C and a low of -24.1C BUF High 5F and a Low of -5.2F I apologize if no one is that interested in cold extremes, overall I enjoy all aspects of weather including extreme cold and heat so I'm a bit intrigued by this upcoming cold shot. OB is for sure going to get a piece of this. Out of my ass... YYZ: high -13.5c/-20.2c YXU: high -15.8c/-23.1c BUF: high 6.2f/-4.4f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 YYZ: -15/-25c YXU: -14/-25c KBUF: -13/-20c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 YYZ: -18/-24C YOW -24/-30C KBUF -14/-22C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 YYZ: -18/-24C YOW -24/-30C KBUF -14/-22C Have you seen last night's 0z run of the GFS? it's just ridiculous with the cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Outstanding east wind lake enhancement potential with the 2nd clipper this weekend, especially as depicted by the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Outstanding east wind lake enhancement potential with the 2nd clipper this weekend, especially as depicted by the EURO.Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Lock it in! Deep inversion heights, 20c+ delta t's, and a unidirectional flow up to H5. Verbatim, a death band would probably plow into the city. Only problem is that the winds will quickly back so it's likely not going to last more than a couple of hours. Reminds me a lot like Jan 8, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Deep inversion heights, 20c+ delta t's, and a unidirectional flow up to H5. Verbatim, a death band would probably plow into the city. Only problem is that the winds will quickly back so it's likely not going to last more than a couple of hours. Reminds me a lot like Jan 8, 2011. Good luck Toronto crew with the LE potential. Im heading to Phoenix Saturday so I won't be here to see it. Buffalo mentions that the clipper Wednesday looks a bit better and has potential to drop 2-5 inches. Whats the winds like for that clipper? Wouldn't mind if that clipper becomes an overachiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Good luck Toronto crew with the LE potential. Im heading to Phoenix Saturday so I won't be here to see it. Buffalo mentions that the clipper Wednesday looks a bit better and has potential to drop 2-5 inches. Whats the winds like for that clipper? Wouldn't mind if that clipper becomes an overachiever. Enjoy the desert. It's low probability for Saturday so chances are you may not be missing much. 1st clipper looks to pass just to our north. SW winds of death here. Probably a coating the way it looks now per EURO/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Deep inversion heights, 20c+ delta t's, and a unidirectional flow up to H5. Verbatim, a death band would probably plow into the city. Only problem is that the winds will quickly back so it's likely not going to last more than a couple of hours. Reminds me a lot like Jan 8, 2011. I have to take a look at parameters tonight but sounds really interesting as we haven't seen inversion heights above 900 all season with a solid easterly flow. Will always remember waking up to a surprise 6"+ on 1/8/11. I was a happy camper. EDIT: Euro verbatim looks good but wouldn't be surprised if sfc low position changes around quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 YYZ: -17.2 C/-24.6 C YXU: -18.0 C/-25.8 C BUF: -2 F/-15 F Each day this month at YYZ, the high temperature has been below freezing. It looks like it will continue for the foreseeable future. This Wednesday will be close as temps are forecast to reach -1C. This February is on track to be the coldest in years. Even colder than 1994, 2007 and last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 I have to take a look at parameters tonight but sounds really interesting as we haven't seen inversion heights above 900 all season with a solid easterly flow. Will always remember waking up to a surprise 6"+ on 1/8/11. I was a happy camper. EDIT: Euro verbatim looks good but wouldn't be surprised if sfc low position changes around quite a bit. And that's the thing. Really thread-the-needle to get that sfc low to track so sweetly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 YYZ: -17.2 C/-24.6 C YXU: -18.0 C/-25.8 C BUF: -2 F/-15 F Each day this month at YYZ, the high temperature has been below freezing. It looks like it will continue for the foreseeable future. This Wednesday will be close as temps are forecast to reach -1C. This February is on track to be the coldest in years. Even colder than 1994, 2007 and last year. What I really want to see is 1) at least one record low out of this outbreak at Pearson and maybe YOW and 2) a mean temperature of at least -9C at Pearson for February as a whole. If the latter happens, this will be a top five February of the past 50-60 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro has been terrible this winter so I'm not getting my hopes up, but I welcome having something to talk about much unlike last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro has been terrible this winter so I'm not getting my hopes up, but I welcome having something to talk about much unlike last month.EPS clustering is pretty tight so most members are over or just west of the GTA. There is also some agreement with the GFS. Either way, it's the small nuances that can make big differences so best to tread with caution in this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 What I really want to see is 1) at least one record low out of this outbreak at Pearson and maybe YOW and 2) a mean temperature of at least -9C at Pearson for February as a whole. If the latter happens, this will be a top five February of the past 50-60 years. The Great Lakes are about 47% covered in ice, the next 10 days should allow that number to significantly rise. With the cold air also more focused on the eastern great lakes, Lake Ontario should see a lot of ice buildup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If everything falls into place which is beginning to look increasingly likely, Lake Ontario could be looking at having a once in 20 year type of ice coverage. You can see that last year was close, but this year might be able to beat it and get up there with 1979 and 1994 if the conditions line up properly. Also the graph shows that having ice coverage this high back to back years is unusual. This is the link for the graph. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/ont.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS soundings for the second clipper have a definite LE signal across the west end/YHM area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If everything falls into place which is beginning to look increasingly likely, Lake Ontario could be looking at having a once in 20 year type of ice coverage. You can see that last year was close, but this year might be able to beat it and get up there with 1979 and 1994 if the conditions line up properly. Also the graph shows that having ice coverage this high back to back years is unusual. This is the link for the graph. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/ont.jpg I think your graph is just showing 2014... the spring of 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think your graph is just showing 2014... the spring of 2014. Sorry, is anyone else having this problem with that link/graph I posted? I see "Annual Maximum Ice Cover- Lake Ontario" with the first date 1973 and last 2014. Here is a link to a slightly different version showing all the great lakes combined. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/IceCoverAvg1973_2014.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Sorry, is anyone else having this problem with that link/graph I posted? I see "Annual Maximum Ice Cover- Lake Ontario" with the first date 1973 and last 2014. Here is a link to a slightly different version. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/IceCoverAvg1973_2014.jpg Nope ... it shows the Annual chart on mine too. I have been checking all the GL Ice cover maps too. It will be very interesting to see where they are by the end of next week! As I mentioned elsewhere this should help (barring other unwanted events) with the continued lake level recovery particularly on Lake Superior and Michigan/Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The max of 2014 occurred in spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 There is less ice cover this season compared to last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 EURO lamer with the threat on Saturday. Sfc low gets too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 There is less ice cover this season compared to last season Make sense as end of January was not bitter cold like last year. Something interesting is there was a report done the other day showing the lake temperatures overall are actually colder still this year than last year. Wish I saved that link. If I find it I will post it. Regardless we are about to go into a deep freeze. If you remember last winter we had a decent thaw Feb 18-22, 2014. That is a period this Feb we look to be cold to bitter cold. The ice cover could easily match last year if this arctic blast last as long as modeled (i.e. well into the beginning of March). EDIT: Found that link: http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/great_lakes_ice_cover_view_fro.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Make sense as end of January was not bitter cold like last year. Something interesting is there was a report done the other day showing the lake temperatures overall are actually colder still this year than last year. Wish I saved that link. If I find it I will post it. Regardless we are about to go into a deep freeze. If you remember last winter we had a decent thaw Feb 18-22, 2014. That is a period this Feb we look to be cold to bitter cold. The ice cover could easily match last year if this arctic blast last as long as modeled (i.e. well into the beginning of March). EDIT: Found that link: http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/great_lakes_ice_cover_view_fro.html Definitely makes sense that the lake temperatures are colder given the summer we had. Summer 2013 was definitely warmer than 2014. IIRC Summer 2013 started off hot (May-June-first half of July) and then troughing started up around end of July persisted all winter, spring, summer, and seems to continue this winter although the axis has nudged east. The Great Lakes never really had a chance to recover from last winter. However, 2013-2014 winter season was persistently cold for Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar, whereas this year we had a reprieve in December, hence less ice cover. I imagine we will have similar ice cover levels this year given the impressively cold outlooks for Feb & March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If everything falls into place which is beginning to look increasingly likely, Lake Ontario could be looking at having a once in 20 year type of ice coverage. You can see that last year was close, but this year might be able to beat it and get up there with 1979 and 1994 if the conditions line up properly. Also the graph shows that having ice coverage this high back to back years is unusual. This is the link for the graph. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/imgs/ont.jpg Apparently it completely froze over in February 1934. Other years it apparently froze include 1874-1875 (Toronto's coldest winter) and February 1855 (According to David Ludlum's Early American Winters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Quarter size snowflakes coming down. Very pretty to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 +SN with fat dendrites near Downsview right now. Low winds and big fat dendrites make a beautiful site. Shame I can't get a photo right now. Easily down to 1/2 SM even with no wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The clipper system for this Saturday is looking much better on today's 12z Euro. Close to 0.40" QPF on this run for the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.