snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 Definitely enjoyed this storm more than 12/11/14. Peak rates were more impressive, drifts are more impressive and overall tracking more enjoyable IMO. Each their own. I liked Dec 2014 more for its consistent +SN over several hours, consistent good flake quality, the fact that it was an over performer, and the fact that we weren't teased with 30-40cm amounts just miles away. And I'm not a fan of drifting due to the havoc it wreaks for measuring. I will concede your tracking point though. This storm was the first truly satisfying tracking storm of the winter for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 postmortem awards for the models: NAM + UKMET get my gold medal. razzie goes to the EURO. Was one of the last holdouts. Agree completely. The UK MET nailed this storm. By the way, there's a full moon rising over a fresh snowpack this evening. Very picturesque! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Caught up in the current storm, why don't we look ahead for future storm threats. The 18z RGEM has about 2-5cm for the GTA and most of Southern Ontario for tomorrow night-Wed. In contrast, the 18z GFS has 5-10cm across the area by Thursday. The GFS shows this 5-10cm over a 24 hour period. The 18z Nam is drier than the GFS over the consensus, but still paints a good 5-10cm for SW Ontario. The next image below is the 18z RGEM. The secondary wave as you can see in this image is what needs to be monitored. At this point in time the ECMWF/UKMET and GGEM/RGEM are the wettest and the most furthest West than the GFS/NAM. With the S/W hanging back in the south, there will likely be some influence from the Gulf into this northern stream, but any phase that does occur will likely be after it passes through the region. Lastly, this is what the 12z UKIE had in store for the region. I posted the Euro text earlier btw. Lets see what the 0z runs hold in store for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Caught up in the current storm, why don't we look ahead for future storm threats. The 18z RGEM has about 2-5cm for the GTA and most of Southern Ontario for tomorrow night-Wed. PR_000-048_0000.gif In contrast, the 18z GFS has 5-10cm across the area by Thursday. The GFS shows this 5-10cm over a 24 hour period. USA_ASNOW24_sfc_054.gif The 18z Nam is drier than the GFS over the consensus, but still paints a good 5-10cm for SW Ontario. USA_ASNOW24_sfc_054 (1).gif The next image below is the 18z RGEM. The secondary wave as you can see in this image is what needs to be monitored. At this point in time the ECMWF/UKMET and GGEM/RGEM are the wettest and the most furthest West than the GFS/NAM. With the S/W hanging back in the south, there will likely be some influence from the Gulf into this northern stream, but any phase that does occur will likely be after it passes through the region. P1_GZ_D5_PN_054_0000.gif Lastly, this is what the 12z UKIE had in store for the region. I posted the Euro text earlier btw. PA_000-072_0000.gif Lets see what the 0z runs hold in store for tonight. A week ago I was excited for the 5cm clippers bring and I still am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It will be interesting to see if we can go below -20C tonight. With the fresh snowpack and clearing skies I will say tonight YYZ records -22C. I doubt we can go much lower and threaten the record of -25C from 1961. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Got niphered big time. I don't think any of that wind driven fluff that fell during the death band landed in the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Should be interesting to see what happens with LE tonight. The 4kNAM/RGEM want to back winds to the ESE after ~4z tonight as the clipper passes by to our SW. Inversion heights look favourable as they are near the 850mb level with nice saturation in the BL. Definitely something to watch especially from Midtown to Oshawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Got niphered big time. I don't think any of that wind driven fluff that fell during the death band landed in the gauge. What does YYZ say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 What does YYZ say? Storm total of 12.8 cm. 6.6 cm on the 1st and 6.2 on the 2nd. The number at the U of T station downtown should be higher. The observer there hasn't entered the data yet into the EC climate database. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Too bad we all forgot to do core samples yesterday. Really wonder what the mean ratio ended up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Storm total of 12.8 cm. 6.6 cm on the 1st and 6.2 on the 2nd. The number at the U of T station downtown should be higher. The observer there hasn't entered the data yet into the EC climate database. Eek. YKF has 21.8cm for the 1st, so I assume they put the 2 day total on 1 day. Will have to wait and see what they update with for the 2nd. It bodes well with the EC met report of 22cm in SE Kitchener near YKF. Not too sure how trustworthy the higher reports are, but YKF has comes in lowest of all reports in the past. IMO we got 25-27cm tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 My friend told me he had 28 cm near Bloor and Christie. Seems a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Not bullish on tomorrow's snow. Looks like a cm or two max. NAM hitting than downslope signal hard and it's usually been right about that this winter. Wouldn't surprise me if it's just a coating. Friday-Saturday and Sunday-Monday potential looking more interesting, but being clippers, it's hard to get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 12z Euro has a big hit for most of Southern Ontario as it has a more robust clipper moving in from the Prairies, merging with some S/W energy in the south. More uplift energy as a result and the storm becomes more potent. Here is the text output for YYZ. ECMWF FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB03 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 07-FEB -6.8 -10.6 1015 88 99 0.02 540 529 SAT 18Z 07-FEB -4.9 -11.0 1013 77 78 0.04 540 530 SUN 00Z 08-FEB -6.9 -12.1 1016 76 83 0.01 542 530 SUN 06Z 08-FEB -11.1 -13.7 1020 80 97 0.00 543 528 SUN 12Z 08-FEB -14.7 -13.6 1022 79 99 0.05 544 527 SUN 18Z 08-FEB -14.0 -11.0 1020 79 99 0.22 542 528 MON 00Z 09-FEB -13.7 -11.7 1018 83 99 0.27 541 528 MON 06Z 09-FEB -14.7 -13.0 1020 81 90 0.20 538 523 MON 12Z 09-FEB -16.4 -14.3 1026 81 18 0.02 541 I'm posting this with my phone, so idk if it can be seen properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Thanks for the 12z Euro text output, Snowstorms. Approx 0.75" QPF with very cold temperatures. GFS is further south, but still gives almost 0.20". If the higher amounts come to fruition, we are going to have a big snowpack come Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Not bullish on tomorrow's snow. Looks like a cm or two max. NAM hitting than downslope signal hard and it's usually been right about that this winter. Wouldn't surprise me if it's just a coating. Friday-Saturday and Sunday-Monday potential looking more interesting, but being clippers, it's hard to get too excited. Agree on tonight's snow. The best area to be is in the eastern GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Not bullish on tomorrow's snow. Looks like a cm or two max. NAM hitting than downslope signal hard and it's usually been right about that this winter. Wouldn't surprise me if it's just a coating. Friday-Saturday and Sunday-Monday potential looking more interesting, but being clippers, it's hard to get too excited. Hope this isn't the case HRRR has a nice spread of 1-2" by the end of its current run with healthier looking reflectivity. It's showed worse downsloping effect before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The Sun-Mon system is definitely interesting. Since its originating out of the N branch, there is the more probable scenario that it trends further and further South. On the other hand there is also the potential for enough interaction with the pac branch to keep the sfc low north enough to get a 12z euro type scenario. In order for this to happen there needs to be perfect timing/amplitude however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Re tonights clipper I'm not as worried about down sloping. On both the 4kNAM/HRRR, winds back early enough to keep the low level flow favourable for Lehs banding. Thinking 1-2" for the GTA with highest amounts East of the 403. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 12z EC ENS mean has a 7" mean for the Sunday system at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Going with 4cm final call for tonight's clipper. Hopefully better than my grossly low-balled call for the Sunday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The 12z EC ENS mean has a 7" mean for the Sunday system at YYZ. Nice. Whats the mean track on the ensembles? UKMET takes it just south of the region. Agree with your other post. The timing is crucial with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Nice. Whats the mean track on the ensembles? UKMET takes it just south of the region. Agree with your other post. The timing is crucial with this. The mean is south of the OP but the largest cluster takes a track from ORD-KERI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The mean is south of the OP but the largest cluster takes a track from ORD-KERI.That track is very similar to the 12z euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The 0z ECMWF is no where near as wet as the 12z but still shows ~0.25 qpf for Toronto. With S/W hanging by in the south, we"ll have to see if the clipper taps into any of that energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That clipper sure was a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 North shore of Lk Ontario east of the 'Shwa looks like it's getting it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 EC met says 3cm thru 6am in SE Kitchener must have been a sharp 1" cutoff cos I got 1.5cm And a report of 5.9cm in London Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Got 1.2 from the clipper. Not bad. Icing on the cake, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The 0z ECMWF is no where near as wet as the 12z but still shows ~0.25 qpf for Toronto. With S/W hanging by in the south, we"ll have to see if the clipper taps into any of that energy.Ensemble looks much wetter FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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