Shack Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Don't count on my play-by-play, but I think the Euro goes neutral and phases between 48hr and 72hr. Can't see the in-between panels but looks like a decent mountain snow. Am I seeing this correctly? It's remarkably different from 00z and yesterdays 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Don't count on my play-by-play, but I think the Euro goes neutral and phases between 48hr and 72hr. Can't see the in-between panels but looks like a decent mountain snow. Am I seeing this correctly? It's remarkably different from 00z and yesterdays 12z. Yes, it phased with the vorticity moving over the Rockies, and Canada. Some people might have wrote this one off too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 A shift to the east and greater phasing and we MIGHT be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 RAH is still entertaining the thought of a mix on Thursday... WILL MAINTAIN ACHANCE POP FROM THE I95 CORRIDOR EAST...AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILLBE THINNING...WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THEWESTERN FRINGES OF THE PIEDMONT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPSFALL BELOW THE MID 30S IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Not much from RAH (maybe a token snow flake for a few, cold afterwards): .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...MID WEEK PERIOD STARTS OUT MILD WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACEHIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOSTLYSUNNY SKIES ARE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TOMID 50S. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL BE STREAMING IN AS NORTHERN ANDSOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE NUDGEDOFFSHORE BY THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF AS A 130KT POLAR JET DIGS DEEPINTO THE MIDWEST. APPEARS THAT MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF COULD SEERAIN IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS THE SYSTEMSREMAIN UNPHASED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFFSHORE ANDSTRONGEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN ACHANCE POP FROM THE I95 CORRIDOR EAST...AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILLBE THINNING...WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THEWESTERN FRINGES OF THE PIEDMONT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPSFALL BELOW THE MID 30S IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.PRCIP WILL BE THROUGH BY MID DAY THURSDAY WITH CLEARING UNDERWAY BYAFTERNOON AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE50 TO 55 RANGE LOOK TOO HIGH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN STRONG COLDAIR ADVECTION AND THICKNESS VALUES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...WITHVALUES INDICATIVE OF LOWER 40S UNDER FULL SUN. WILL THUS FORECAST A43 NORTHWEST TO 48 SOUTHEAST RANGE. ARCTIC HIGH SETTLING INOVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW DECOUPLING LATE AND MINS WILL CRASH WAY DOWNINTO THE 20S WITH PERHAPS SOME TEENS IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 RAH is still entertaining the thought of a mix on Thursday... WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP FROM THE I95 CORRIDOR EAST...AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING...WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PIEDMONT TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPS FALL BELOW THE MID 30S IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. lol ,,,you beat me by seconds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 So far, I've had slushy raindrops and sleet, so if there's a random snowflake, that's a winter trifecta for this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 18z GFS (..closer to something...) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150202+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 18z GFS (..closer to something...) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=069&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150202+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Id be happy with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm no expert here, but how does the 1013 Low off the coast of Tampa, Florida travel 400 miles to the northeast in 6 hours on the 18Z? Is it a different storm? I'm talking about the 18Z between hour 66 and 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Well I see nws gsp has introduced a 20% chance of rain and snow into the upstate forecast for thurs morning. I still think there will be maybe a dusting out of that that moves through but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 SE VA/ NE NC special?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I'm no expert here, but how does the 1013 Low off the coast of Tampa, Florida travel 400 miles to the northeast in 6 hours on the 18Z? Is it a different storm? I'm talking about the 18Z between hour 66 and 72. The vort coming off of the gulf gets absorbed into the vort coming off of canada and the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Looking forward to seeing the thoughts of the short & medium range models on this system. Haven't looked at it, but I imagine the northern stream trough will be sampled tonight or tomorrow. To my knowledge, the southern stream energy won't really get a good look until entering southern US. Nice to still have a shot anyhow. Can't say this often with the timing of these kind of events for the SE, we are still in the middle of Meteorological winter with a healthy fresh snow pack to the north.. just gotta slide that cold front/high pressure through on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Encouraging signs on 18z with 850s further south and precip further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Looking forward to seeing the thoughts of the short & medium range models on this system. Haven't looked at it, but I imagine the northern stream trough will be sampled tonight or tomorrow. To my knowledge, the southern stream energy won't really get a good look until entering southern US. Nice to still have a shot anyhow. Can't say this often with the timing of these kind of events for the SE, we are still in the middle of Meteorological winter with a healthy fresh snow pack to the north.. just gotta slide that cold front/high pressure through on time. The northern piece of vort is already in North America. The piece that comes from the Rockies is still not on shore yet. The ULL is in mexico right now. So we got 2 out of 3 players on land already. I expect the trough to dig more and precip shield to push more West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The northern piece of vort is already in North America. The piece that comes from the Rockies is still not on shore yet. The ULL is in mexico right now. So we got 2 out of 3 players on land already. I expect the trough to dig more and precip shield to push more West. Nice map and thanks for the heads up. I don't think the 12Z balloon launch would have picked up the entirety of either feature yet though.. (I am making the huge assumption that Canada and maybe Mexico launch balloons on the same schedule as us) So the models mayyy have better data to work off of in the coming couple of runs. That being said I think the finer scale (short range) models will provide the most improvement in modeling this storm. Edit: I think you might be on to something with the deeper trough and westward shift of the precipitation shield (although I think alot of the westward shift may be due to westward expansion) and man that northern stream shortwave energy is coming directly from the Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So, I will ask again....LOL Who will buy snowflakes at this point in time? Lets see if we can go find some first. New video is up, enjoy! https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 NAM's gettin' close. Not all snow yet for SE VA but some and looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 NAM's gettin' close. Not all snow yet for SE VA but some and looking better. Coastal areas look good for this system. snow is like gold so might go to the beach for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I still think that Ne Ga and the upstate has a shot at a little snow thursday morning. May not be much but may lay down a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Get ready for the second brick wall of the night (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Get ready for the second brick wall of the night (GFS) Looks better early on, ridge a smidge taller, grasping?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looks better early on, ridge a smidge taller, grasping?! Thats good at least!! ULLs are so hard to model it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Time to say fork it! This one is over, 00z is fropa, on to next weeks 10 day storm!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Time to say fork it! This one is over, 00z is fropa, on to next weeks 10 day storm!? One model. Breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Time to say fork it! This one is over, 00z is fropa, on to next weeks 10 day storm!? Cant believe i waited till 0z for this S****, not even going to stay up for the euro. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Time to say fork it! This one is over, 00z is fropa, on to next weeks 10 day storm!?Come on now, we tired of the 10day storms, lets move it out to 15 day and we will have a shot! Go ahead and start the thread for around the 17th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Time to say fork it! This one is over, 00z is fropa, on to next weeks 10 day storm!? I agree 100%... "Bye Bye Miss American Pie" SLP exits stage right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yep , we have a thread for a cold front , awesome! Atleast it looks cold after the front for a day or two! Even if we had more interaction, it would just be a low out of the gulf , in front of a coldfront ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.