mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How many more nails do we need to put in this coffin? Lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The reality is that a lot of solutions are on the table at this point, regardless of one or two model solutions or one or two model suites. Factoring in seasonal trends, the odds that this trends toward a big SE snow are low. Flatter ridging, less cold, and northward trend are likely, based on the seasonal trends. But the funny thing about seasonal trends is that they're only trends until they're not anymore. Maybe this is the time. Maybe not. But it's silly to go all in or give up 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking forward to 0Z need models to start trending in the right direction and still a bit far out for me personally to put too much faith in the 6 & 18z runs Pretty sure that 6z and 18z runs are not systematically handicapped vs 0z and 12z, and cannot simply be discarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Pretty sure that 6z and 18z runs are not systematically handicapped vs 0z and 12z, and cannot simply be discarded. You're correct. It's not 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So we have 3 runs that are inconsistent and totally different from each other and move the storm from Charleston to north of NC, and we say it had to be true? Brick, we say they are all an option on the table. Doesn't make the solution true or not at all. In fact, none of the solutions seen so far are going to be exactly what happens more likely than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So we have 3 runs that are inconsistent and totally different from each other and move the storm from Charleston to north of NC, and we say it had to be true? they are consistent in the fact that they show no snow for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I dont really take the 06z and 18z runs in consideration most of the time. A wise and brilliant local meteorologist once pointed out to me the margin of error of the "in between" or secondary runs. He wrote a whole blog about it and had all the statistics and whatnot. Blends of 00z and 12z is what I usually base my interpretation off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I dont really take the 06z and 18z runs in consideration most of the time. A wise and brilliant local meteorologist once pointed out to me the margin of error of the "in between" or secondary runs. He wrote a whole blog about it and had all the statistics and whatnot. Blends of 00z and 12z is what I usually base my interpretation off of. When was 'once'? That was true for a long time. The secondary runs were data starved. In that respect, things have improved greatly in recent years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 When was 'once'? That was true for a long time. The secondary runs were data starved. In that respect, things have improved greatly in recent years Less than 3 or so years ago, Andy Wood, if that rings a bell with anyone? But its not really to "throw out" the runs, just trying to stay optimistic and stay positive, everyone seems to be giving up. Always have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I agree BL, i know, i said no blocking, no snow. But i was referring to past storms this year. I also said cliffdiving isent smart. Anything is possible in the SE. You have to be optimistic, but at the same time be realistic. I hope someone gets snow even if i get "Shutout". Best of luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Less than 3 or so years ago, Andy Wood, if that rings a bell with anyone? But its not really to "throw out" the runs, just trying to stay optimistic and stay positive, everyone seems to be giving up. Always have hope.And the 12z GFS , full of data, sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Pretty sure that 6z and 18z runs are not systematically handicapped vs 0z and 12z, and cannot simply be discarded. They are not handicapped in any way however the 12 and 0Z models still incorporate fresh sounding data for better or worse. Granted I'm no expert on the impact of improving data assimilation techniques using satellites ect.. Which would improve the approximation of the initial state of the atmosphere for the 6 and 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 They are not handicapped in any way however the 12 and 0Z models still incorporate fresh sounding data for better or worse. Granted I'm no expert on the impact of improving data assimilation techniques using satellites ect.. Which would improve the approximation of the initial state of the atmosphere for the 6 and 18z runs. I have always gone with the assumption when looking for a trend, it's best to stick with one set (00z &12z) or (06z&18z) for comparison purposes. Not because one set is better, or worse than the other, but the data ingested is consistent. Anywho....that's my .02....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Good approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Hot off the presses.....Do we all get on the cliff for this storm, and winter? or can we maybe, just maybe get some wintry weather around the SE. Details in the video on MY thoughts on them.. Thanks for watching. please like my page if you want. Thanks again. Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Nasty GFS run, again. Getting close to giving up time here in KCAE, that's for sure. Lets go by the ensembles and see what their ultimate solution is via GFS, GGEM, Euro. That's our best guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I've always liked John Cessarich from WYFF in Greenville, Apparently he likes the Euro next Monday. https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10153044191469114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Nasty GFS run, again. Getting close to giving up time here in KCAE, that's for sure. Lets go by the ensembles and see what their ultimate solution is via GFS, GGEM, Euro. That's our best guess right now. It wasn't that bad.....it was better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It wasn't that bad.....it was better than 18z KCAE had 0.01 of moisture with it cold enough to be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The high doesn't get in place in time, so precip would be rain during the frontal passage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I've always liked John Cessarich from WYFF in Greenville, Apparently he likes the Euro next Monday. https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10153044191469114 Back a few years ago, Andy Wood from Fox Carolina, IMO was in a different league compared to the other local mets. but then again, its just an opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 The storm = over. Have fun guys. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Eventually people will get tired of starting threads and getting burned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 LET THIS BE A LESSON TO YOU!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 lol No sir! It's the best thing ever to make a thread 5 days out even when Stormsfury finally posts again and says not to before 48 hours. Hell, people think it is a good thing to post a thread 14 days in advance these days it seems! The GFS is now crap. The Euro is crap. Why do people keep denying the Euro of being King even if it has struggled? I think the new thing is "omg it was wrong in NYC so it will always be wrong". Pft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Models have not been right but we keeping making threads on a storm threat? Cheese said it wouldn't happen days ago. Good call cheese. Now on to next weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 6z GFS wasn't that horrible. Still just basically a frontal passage, looked close to the front try's to interact with the low, and moisture not that far off! Just my take on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 RAH this morning... PRECIP WILL INITIALLY FALL FROM CLOUD BASES 6000-8000FT SO IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE THE SUB CLOUD LAYER. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THURSDAY MORNING. (00Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A POSSIBLE SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AROUND MID DAY). STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER PRECIP WILL OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH. PLUS...MAY BE A CASE OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE AS BEST CAA OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON (AT THE SAME TIME THE ATMOSPHERE UNDERGOES RAPID DRYING). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 KCAE had 0.01 of moisture with it cold enough to be frozen. .01 more than 18z Back a few years ago, Andy Wood from Fox Carolina, IMO was in a different league compared to the other local mets. but then again, its just an opinion Are you obsessed with Andy Wood? 90% of your first posts reference him in some way. Keep the banter out of discussion threads and in the banter thread where it belongs. Reading more and posting less is great advice especially when you are posting the same thing in every thread......sigh LET THIS BE A LESSON TO YOU!! lol Dayum gfs took all my snow away....imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 as of 12PM or so from KCAE: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ WELL ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. AT LEAST NOW THEY ARE ALL COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO LEND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAN PREVIOUS ONES. CURRENT 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW ALL INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET WILL DIG EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM JET. AT APPEARS AS IF THE ENERGY FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PHASE UP EFFICIENTLY OVER THE REGION. THE MODELS THUS SHOW RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ALL WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL CROSS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...THEN GET PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST BY THE TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. THIS BASICALLY DRIES CONDITIONS OUT NOW BY THE TIME TEMPERATURE PROFILES DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH ALSO REMOVES ANY MENTION OF FROZEN PRECIP. DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOW PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN THEY MAY BE ABLE TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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