BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Use this thread to discuss the potential for the upcoming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Oh no he diii'nt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Oh no he diii'nt 3 day rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Use this thread to discuss the potential for the upcoming event. I've been in for the past 5 days....what took you so long? Oh no he diii'nt Oh yes he did Bring it home Jeremy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 3 day rule. I reserve the right to add weenie tags(me included) if this doesn't happen for someone in the se It can't be worse than the last "significant system" for NC can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow! A threat for cold and dry, that's a first! ( I kid, I kid) ! Everyone is bailing on the 12z GFS , I didnt think it looked that bad? This should be the Euros wheelhouse , so the 12z could break hearts, or start chest bumps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I reserve the right to add weenie tags(me included) if this doesn't happen for someone in the se It can't be worse than the last "significant system" for NC can it? Yeah, it could be alot worse, you could get 12", while I get flurries! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 3 day rule. This thread can remain as a tribute to one of my favorite sites, "The Onion". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow! A threat for cold and dry, that's a first! ( I kid, I kid) ! Everyone is bailing on the 12z GFS , I didnt think it looked that bad? This should be the Euros wheelhouse , so the 12z could break hearts, or start chest bumps! Yeah, I would be far more worried if it was showing a good track at 108 hours out. There are 12 GEFS members on ewall site and 4 of the 12 have some sort of wintery precip in the SE. AmWx has 20 members so will check when that comes out. The 6z GEFS might have had 1 more member than the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 EURO, through hr 78 is a bit taller with the pac ridge vs 00z run. VERY impressive cold push up north. southern energy has a SFC low in mid gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro is to fast with the southern low, I like what's it's doing with the ridging and the NS stream though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro was close, completely different than 0z run. I think if the southern low would have slowed down it would have deepened as it hit the atlantic, now it's probably going to deepen as it moves past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The drunk doc is trying, still don't think this will make it tho. HR96 the energy in question has more separation from the other northern piece from 00z run. and is further back SW through the mid plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Another major snowstorm for the ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Another major snowstorm for the ne Yep, theme of this winter. It's Boston's playground, they can't do wrong. Were just a squirrel trying to get a nut. This is like the 3rd winter storm in a 10 day period that has trended in there favor once it got to about 96 hours. It's like 09/10 was for the MA but now it's Boston's turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Still looks much diff than gfs. GFS had some CAD in here, euro is much slower sliding that high across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Kick the ridge up a tad would ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I want to see where the models stand tomorrow 12z before trying to reserve judgement on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The image I posted above was much better at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The image I posted above was much better at 06z. I bet it was It's still the best look mby has had all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I bet it was It's still the best look mby has had all winter Aside from the true ground conditions on November 1st. Models didn't do too well with that one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Aside from the true ground conditions on November 1st. mby just got a dusting 3 times that day. I gotta admit....even that little bit was pretty awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I do like this NAM look, but yes its the NAM, and we all agree with that. There needs to not be ANY energy interactions with this rockies energy and the northern stream over the GL...If I am not mistaken, the euro has a bunch until the last second, and then it does over the SE again. The gfs, and nam do not. I am assuming the GEM doesn't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I do like this NAM look, but yes its the NAM, and we all agree with that. There needs to not be ANY energy interactions with this rockies energy and the northern stream over the GL...If I am not mistaken, the euro has a bunch until the last second, and then it does over the SE again. The gfs, and nam do not. I am assuming the GEM doesn't either. 18z NAM not nearly as good a look. Flatter and more progressive with less WC ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking forward to 0Z need models to start trending in the right direction and still a bit far out for me personally to put too much faith in the 6 & 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z gfs says goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For those that are accusing many of giving up too easily or are pessimistic: I think a huge problem is that people put too much credit into a few good runs and not enough credit in the amount of bad runs compared. Nobody has given up per say. They are just being realistic with the majority of modeling not supporting a widespread Southeast snow storm. If in 2 or 3 days we see a big Southeast snow storm on a lot of modeling, then you'll see a different tune. Or we can blame it all on Queencity and say it's his fault for starting this thread. Hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY... LATEST WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY...AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER. EXPECT TO START THE DAY WITH A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES...AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. PROGRESSING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH...THOUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST THAN FORECAST MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY CALLING FOR. WITH THE LOW TRACKING FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA...DO NOT SEE MOISTURE BEING PUSHED AS FAR INLAND...AND THEREFORE EXPECT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE CONFINED MORE TO THE COAST. MODELS AGREE THAT ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EXCLUSIVELY SNOW AS NORTHERLY WINDS DRAW SUB FREEZING AIR FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RIGHT NOW...HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. THE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE HAD NOT ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH ONE ANOTHER CONCERNING THE TRACK AND THE IMPACTS OF THE LOW...THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN FLIP FLOPPING FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AS TO HOW THE LOW WILL BEHAVE. SO WILL STILL NOT HAZARD A GUESS AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WE CAN EXPECT...EXCEPT TO SAY THAT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO PUTS ACCUMULATIONS AROUND THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. RNK latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For those that are accusing many of giving up too easily or are pessimistic: I think a huge problem is that people put too much credit into a few good runs and not enough credit in the amount of bad runs compared. Nobody has given up per say. They are just being realistic with the majority of modeling not supporting a widespread Southeast snow storm. If in 2 or 3 days we see a big Southeast snow storm on a lot of modeling, then you'll see a different tune. Or we can blame it all on Queencity and say it's his fault for starting this thread. Hah exactly. people put higher stock in 2 or 3 great model runs than 10-11 bad ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.