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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014/15


snywx

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52", about 5 to 10 inches lower then you guys to the east and N.e of me. I guess this season is payback for the 80.0" season last year for me lol.

I have 52" in Dobbs Ferry, less than 10 miles from the Bronx border at 350' elevation. Incredible we have similar totals given you're at 1230' in the Poconos...I remember last year I had 74" and in 10-11 I had 70", and both of those rivaled the totals up there in NE PA as well despite the elevation and latitude difference. 

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Personally, it's hard to be upset about missing out on a storm when I have close to 20" of snow on the ground (with a thick crust on top) almost a week into March. I think most of us knew the writing was on the wall for this one a couple of days ago. I am happy the city and south crew got a nice storm out of it, even though it'll sublimate in less than a week  :sizzle:

 

The pattern relaxation will be nice, though I hold out hope for a little accumulating snow in April as that would give us 6 months with snow this year. Definitely would be a fitting end to the season. 

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I have 52" in Dobbs Ferry, less than 10 miles from the Bronx border at 350' elevation. Incredible we have similar totals given you're at 1230' in the Poconos...I remember last year I had 74" and in 10-11 I had 70", and both of those rivaled the totals up there in NE PA as well despite the elevation and latitude difference.

Yes sir, it has been like this for the past 10 years. Too far nw for Nor'easters, and just nickle and dime events barely making avg. Last years 80" was the exception. Pitiful..

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That is insane!

 

Factor in the wind chill and you have a 40 degree apparent drop in 1 hour. Nuts!

 

It looks like the warmup mid-month could be quite brief. Temps on the weeklies are somewhat below average for the second half of March and into April... nothing like the cold we've seen, of course. Even if the long-range models are too aggression with the pattern reload, the deeply frozen ground, cold ocean and river temps, and deep snowpack dictate that we'd still need more than "near or slightly below average" to facilitate sustained warm-season activities.

 

One would expect that below-normal temps and the inherent baroclinicity of March would leave the door open for continued (or resumed) wintry threats. 

 

I haven't looked at any models today, but Ryan H. tweeted the same, that they were cold through early April. 

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It looks like the warmup mid-month could be quite brief. Temps on the weeklies are somewhat below average for the second half of March and into April... nothing like the cold we've seen, of course. Even if the long-range models are too aggression with the pattern reload, the deeply frozen ground, cold ocean and river temps, and deep snowpack dictate that we'd still need more than "near or slightly below average" to facilitate sustained warm-season activities.

 

One would expect that below-normal temps and the inherent baroclinicity of March would leave the door open for continued (or resumed) wintry threats. 

Definitely agree about the transient warm up, I'm actually excited about the second half of this month.

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Extreme weather events are definitely the new normal. I didn't realize Boxing Day was so high here. 2/25/10 was pretty much the most painful experience of my weather life. We picked up like 6" of snow in the morning, then changed to rain and stayed rain (occasionally mixed with snow) for nearly the entire storm, while areas less than 15 miles to the south or west picked up 20" or more of snow.  :axe:  I know that's sny's favorite, he always brings it up, much to my dismay!

 

I just saw this post lol.. Its in the top 3 for me. Everything about that storm was insane. I apologize in advance for the upcoming screenshot lol.

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I just saw this post lol.. Its in the top 3 for me. Everything about that storm was insane. I apologize in advance for the upcoming screenshot lol.

Two things that curtailed my enjoyment of that storm: 1)it warmed up right after it 2) the bigger issue was losing power for four days although the warmup was a good thing in that case.
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This has been the season of miller B's and clippers. That's part of the problem. So we're getting into the initial overrunning in the interior but then once the coastal takes over it carries the precip with it. Then places like LI are getting the enhancement of the moisture coming in off the ocean and LI Sound.

 

We haven't had many wrapped up Miller A's. The one at the end of January took a track too far offshore. If you're going to have a wrapped up coastal we need a coastal hugger and those have been few and far between in the last few years. 

 

The system that's been showing up in the 7-10 day range is of course a long way off but would probably bring the good area-wide if it materializes. 

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Ice on the river is still pretty extensive today, but noticeably decreased from its peak last month. 250m MODIS image from today:

 

U5neauw.jpg

 

vs. February 18:

 

60F1Vb2.jpg

 

I believe we're due for a Landsat 8 pass today, and the weather couldn't be better for it. With its 30m resolution, we should be able to make out better detail of the ice, including shipping lanes and such.

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Got home recently and checked my weather station and I actually got to -1 this morning! Forgot to check before work as I've kind of been in a strep and flu induced stupor since Sunday (industrial hazard as a pediatrician). I did see a few nearby PWS that got to -1 or -2. Should be the last negative reading for the season.

 

Haven't really looked at models much in the past couple days, but I did glance at some of the meteograms on the EPS and GEFS and it doesn't look like any major warm-up is in sight. We briefly moderate through Tuesday or Wednesday, then we cool back down again. Perhaps a signal for a storm next weekend as well. Also looks like we get the -epo/+pna back with maybe some sustained blocking around mid-month? I guess the cold isn't packing it's bags for good after all.

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Got home recently and checked my weather station and I actually got to -1 this morning! Forgot to check before work as I've kind of been in a strep and flu induced stupor since Sunday (industrial hazard as a pediatrician). I did see a few nearby PWS that got to -1 or -2. Should be the last negative reading for the season.

 

Haven't really looked at models much in the past couple days, but I did glance at some of the meteograms on the EPS and GEFS and it doesn't look like any major warm-up is in sight. We briefly moderate through Tuesday or Wednesday, then we cool back down again. Perhaps a signal for a storm next weekend as well. Also looks like we get the -epo/+pna back with maybe some sustained blocking around mid-month? I guess the cold isn't packing it's bags for good after all.

Urgh, sorry to hear that. If it makes you feel better, the GFS has been suggesting for several runs now that the best, by far, is yet to come!

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Surprisingly good model agreement for next weekend despite being 6-7 days away. This tropical moisture over the Gulf Coast has been showing up on models for at least the past 5 days. Obviously its in fantasy land, but just since there's not much else to talk about, we would need that high to be in a good place and maybe some help with timing, but it definitely has a lot of potential.

 

Dropped to a low of 7 here. Saw that several places in the Mid-Atlantic and midwest have been shattering all-time March record lows the past two mornings. Morch ftl.

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