sn0w Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Only in this winter would we have the 18z GFS, GFS ENS, and RGEM coming north an rolling out with 6" or more for us within 6 hours of the event while meteorologists are lowering us to an inch or two at the same time...model consensus has never been this erratic in recent years from what I can remember...must be a tough pattern for them to get a hold of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Another 1-3/2-4 deal looks like. I'm glad we're getting a big break after this. A few inches of fresh snow would be just what the doctor ordered after today's compaction and slushification. The GFS and HRRR remind me of that convergence zone that granted me a few inches of surprise super-fluff on Feb 12. The HRRR is showing a similar wind field and the GFS likes enhanced QPF over Putnam, Dutchess, and Fairfield. At the very least, we have reason to be hopeful for some mesoscale banding surprises instead of just the tiny, wayward flakes that seemed to be our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I agree with Upton's forecast, I don't know why some people here are jumping on them for being too low. I don't trust the 18z model runs and neither do a bunch of mets apparently. Imo, this is a 2-4 inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I agree with Upton's forecast, I don't know why some people here are jumping on them for being too low. I don't trust the 18z model runs and neither do a bunch of mets apparently. Imo, this is a 2-4 inch snowfall I think most (myself included) are just pointing out how crazy this winter has been with regards to the lack of model consensus even just 6-12 hours before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 A few inches of fresh snow would be just what the doctor ordered after today's compaction and slushification. The GFS and HRRR remind me of that convergence zone that granted me a few inches of surprise super-fluff on Feb 12. The HRRR is showing a similar wind field and the GFS likes enhanced QPF over Putnam, Dutchess, and Fairfield. At the very least, we have reason to be hopeful for some mesoscale banding surprises instead of just the tiny, wayward flakes that seemed to be our fate. Yup, a nice freshener before the melting begins in earnest this weekend. I tell ya, it felt really good out there today with temps near 40. Models truly have struggled this year and I do not know enough to figure that out. As much as I want Spring, I know I will miss the snow eventually. Will enjoy whatever we get tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 pretty good agreement among members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Radar trends along with the latest rap/hrrr aren't overly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Those plumes need to be drug tested. A range of 0" to 11" just as the radar is starting to fill in a bit? Anyhow, I'd take the under for the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Not expecting much up here guys.. If anyone north of 84 recieves more than 2-3" I would be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Not expecting much up here guys.. If anyone north of 84 recieves more than 2-3" I would be shocked. It is hard to miss the party again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Not expecting much up here guys.. If anyone north of 84 recieves more than 2-3" I would be shocked. 1-2" was my call. Should be a razor sharp cutoff somewhere around 84. I do think south of 84 could see 3-6", more as you head further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 1-2" was my call. Should be a razor sharp cutoff somewhere around 84. I do think south of 84 could see 3-6", more as you head further south. When I moved here 5 years ago, I seriously never thought this area would get fringed as much as it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It is hard to miss the party again.We said that in the other thread and got attacked by allsnow. I don't know how he thinks the nam was just an awesome run for folks north of white plains. Check out the latest hrrr and rap, they are not impressive for nw areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Not expecting much up here guys.. If anyone north of 84 recieves more than 2-3" I would be shocked. still going with 4 inches in my backyard. every 5 miles may be a 1/2 to and inch with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 It is hard to miss the party again. That was my call all along so I'm not disappointed. It will look real nice with what we already have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 When I moved here 5 years ago, I seriously never thought this area would get fringed as much as it has.Yet I'm averaging 8" or so above average the last 12 yrs.I'm in NYC right now and their snowpack is pretty much nonexistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We said that in the other thread and got attacked by allsnow. I don't know how he thinks the nam was just an awesome run for folks north of white plains. Check out the latest hrrr and rap, they are not impressive for nw areas The NAM did increase the amounts south of Putnam and Orange counties, but north of there, it really tightened up the gradient, which may mean the models are seeing the strength of the arctic air mass. You should do fine in Rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 The NAM did increase the amounts south of Putnam and Orange counties, but north of there, it really tightened up the gradient, which may mean the models are seeing the strength of the arctic air mass. You should do fine in Rockland. Yeah BX, Animal etc should get a nice 4-6" snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yet I'm averaging 8" or so above average the last 12 yrs. It speaks to how much colder and snowier winters have been in the NE in the past several years on avg. In absolute terms with stats, sure, it's been good. But in relative terms synoptically, we've been on the sidelines way too many more times than I would have expected. Missing the coastal rains/ inland snows scenarios that I thought were more common, but seem so rare. The Thanksgiving storm was a nice example of that (sorry coastal folks). I got used to that growing up just west of Boston. It's never a good feeling when places not too far are getting a lot more snow in a given event and we are just on the cusp. Sure, I enjoy what we get, but I also can't help feeling frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It speaks to how much colder and snowier winters have been in the NE in the past several years on avg. In absolute terms with stats, sure, it's been good. But in relative terms synoptically, we've been on the sidelines way too many more times than I would have expected. Missing the coastal rains/ inland snows scenarios that I thought were more common, but seem so rare. The Thanksgiving storm was a nice example of that (sorry coastal folks). I got used to that growing up just west of Boston. It's never a good feeling when places not too far are getting a lot more snow in a given event and we are just on the cusp. Sure, I enjoy what we get, but I also can't help feeling frustrated. Yeah coastal regions have fared incredibly well over the last decade meanwhile ALB hasn't had a 20" event since 2002, just missed one during valentines day '07 but nothing even close since. When was the last 20" event in POU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah coastal regions have fared incredibly well over the last decade meanwhile ALB hasn't had a 20" event since 2002, just missed one during valentines day '07 but nothing even close since. When was the last 20" event in POU? Last February 13th. Probably my favorite storm since I moved here, maybe that and Valentine's Day '07. Came in 2 parts, something like 8-10" in the morning, then a lull, and then a foot in like 4 hours overnight as a mesolow formed near the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Last February 13th. Probably my favorite storm since I moved here, maybe that and Valentine's Day '07. Came in 2 parts, something like 8-10" in the morning, then a lull, and then a foot in like 4 hours overnight as a mesolow formed near the region. Yeah, that was my favorite storm too since moving here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Last February 13th. Probably my favorite storm since I moved here, maybe that and Valentine's Day '07. Came in 2 parts, something like 8-10" in the morning, then a lull, and then a foot in like 4 hours overnight as a mesolow formed near the region. Nice! I forgot how impressive that one was up and down the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Last February 13th. Probably my favorite storm since I moved here, maybe that and Valentine's Day '07. Came in 2 parts, something like 8-10" in the morning, then a lull, and then a foot in like 4 hours overnight as a mesolow formed near the region. I will say that prior to last February, I don't remember any storms in the previous 10 years or so of me living here that produced a 20" snowfall. I could be forgetting though. Boxing Day we were definitely fringed on to some extent. When I used to live further upstate (Cortland), I remember a storm in the early 2000's that gave areas just east of Syracuse over 30" of snow. Can't remember exactly when it was though. I can recall driving on the thruway and it felt like we were in a tunnel because the snow was piled so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I will say that prior to last February, I don't remember any storms in the previous 10 years or so of me living here that produced a 20" snowfall. I could be forgetting though. Boxing Day we were definitely fringed on to some extent. When I used to live further upstate (Cortland), I remember a storm in the early 2000's that gave areas just east of Syracuse over 30" of snow. Can't remember exactly when it was though. I can recall driving on the thruway and it felt like we were in a tunnel because the snow was piled so high. Maybe Christmas '02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Maybe Christmas '02? Yeah, that's it! We traveled from Buffalo down to here to visit family for Christmas, and we had to leave Buffalo Christmas eve to avoid the storm. When we went back to Cortland a few days later is when we saw the crazy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Feb 26th 2010 was a 20+ event in southwestern Duchess County, more west of the river. Boxing day 2010 was close to 20" at KPOU. Coastal folks have definitely had their fair share of large events this last decade.. I would think they are running way above normal in the number of events. I read somewhere that NYC averages a 12"+ snowfall once every 4 years.. It seems like that average has been crushed over the last decade. Is this the new normal? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Feb 2013 was just an incredibly dynamic and multifaceted storm. 6"/hr snowfall rates, thundersleet, and a gorgeous satellite presentation after that mesolow formed and began interacting with the TROWAL region. The mid-Hudson Valley is kind of a tough place for big snows. We're pretty well tucked-in toward the mainland as opposed to southern Jersey, LI, and SNE, so we often miss the death bands in mature nor'easters that like to straddle the Gulf Stream. February 2006 comes to mind... the subsidence from that deform band was just brutal. I think I got like 4" or 5". Boxing Day was also a bit lackluster imby compared to other areas, but that storm was still fun to track and enjoy vicariously through earthlight and company. Then you have the redeveloping clippers whose snows often die out just to our west before going ballistic just to our east. That said, there are times when sitting landlocked in the interior can be a blessing, especially in marginal early- and late-season events like October 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Feb 26th 2010 was a 20+ event in southwestern Duchess County, more west of the river. Boxing day 2010 was close to 20" at KPOU. Coastal folks have definitely had their fair share of large events this last decade.. I would think they are running way above normal in the number of events. I read somewhere that NYC averages a 12"+ snowfall once every 4 years.. It seems like that average has been crushed over the last decade. Is this the new normal? lol Extreme weather events are definitely the new normal. I didn't realize Boxing Day was so high here. 2/25/10 was pretty much the most painful experience of my weather life. We picked up like 6" of snow in the morning, then changed to rain and stayed rain (occasionally mixed with snow) for nearly the entire storm, while areas less than 15 miles to the south or west picked up 20" or more of snow. I know that's sny's favorite, he always brings it up, much to my dismay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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