KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sorry, but it's not this forum. The snowfall forecasts by the NWS have busted on just about every system this winter. The storms have underperformed, and we've discussed that it's a trend going back to last year.Well. I'm relatively new to the forum. All I am doing is pointing out what I believe to be seeing. Not only is every storm underperforming, but the average accumulation prediction on here is higher than the average prediction from the media weather outlets. All I was doing was trying to figure out why, and I posted the pattern that I see going on in here. But hey....if everyones fine with a large % of people throwing out the 2 lowest snow accumulating models in each storm and averaging the others...than okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 people are really tense with this rain to snow wave event. Never seen so much conflict. Hope it rains all night just south me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well. I'm relatively new to the forum. All I am doing is pointing out what I believe to be seeing. Not only is every storm underperforming, but the average accumulation prediction on here is higher than the average prediction from the media weather outlets. All I was doing was trying to figure out why, and I posted the pattern that I see going on in here. But hey....if everyones fine with a large % of people throwing out the 2 lowest snow accumulating models in each storm and averaging the others...than okay You have a pretty small sample size if you just joined in February. I actually think quite the opposite, that we are usually pretty reserved when it comes to expectations or predictions. Most of us have been fringe city on a lot of the major storms over the past several years, so we've lowered our expectations a little. Do we sometimes throw up pretty model runs that show 1-2' of snow for us? Sure, but there's always discussion about why that run is unlikely to verify. I guess I should clarify that you are speaking about this thread in particular? Or do you mean the NYC subforum in general? If that's what you mean, then I guess my comments wouldn't really apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You have a pretty small sample size if you just joined in February. I actually think quite the opposite, that we are usually pretty reserved when it comes to expectations or predictions. Most of us have been fringe city on a lot of the major storms over the past several years, so we've lowered our expectations a little. Do we sometimes throw up pretty model runs that show 1-2' of snow for us? Sure, but there's always discussion about why that run is unlikely to verify. I guess I should clarify that you are speaking about this thread in particular? Or do you mean the NYC subforum in general? If that's what you mean, then I guess my comments wouldn't really apply. Yes. I go back and forth between this and the NYC thread. So....I was making a combination generalization on what I believed to be seeing. It is a small sample...no doubt. ( but remember...Im not talking about the storms underperforming, I'm talking about the avg. prediction being well higher than avg. tv/ radio metereology media)/.It's just something that I thought I have been seeing and wanted to point out. You are right though...that situation may be significantly more pravelant in the NYC thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes. I go back and forth between this and the NYC thread. So....I was making a combination generalization on what I believed to be seeing. It is a small sample...no doubt. ( but remember...Im not talking about the storms underperforming, I'm talking about the avg. prediction being well higher than avg. tv/ radio metereology media)/.It's just something that I thought I have been seeing and wanted to point out. You are right though...that situation may be significantly more pravelant in the NYC thread. Any links or examples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, I've lived in Poughkeepsie for 10 years now, and I'm well aware of the local climatology and the fact that it's generally a snow hole compared to surrounding areas, so I almost always will go lower than what a general blend of the models is showing. And if I think about it, I don't think anyone in this thread in particular goes crazy with snowfall predictions. Of course, if we throw out a number 2-3 days ahead of time, that is bound to change as the event gets closer, so maybe that has something to do with your observations. For example, this system for tonight and tomorrow, if you blended the models 2 days ago, you would have a much higher number than if you did the same today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Any links or examples?No links. As for examples....each storm I am in our forum. I get updates and watch Bernie Raynos's videos/ updates. NWS of course. Weather channel ( who has been MUCH better the last year or two)...and then local CBS, NBC, and ABC. The general consensus on those 6 outlets will always be lower than the average consensus in the NYC forum. It's 100% of storms so far. Again....it's not everyone doing it, however...several people throw out the worst model or two on each storm and are averaging the others. They even specifically mention model XX being garbage when they throw it out, but then swap that in and out for another model on the next storm that shows them a better output. It's pretty interesting to watch the human psychology going into the forecast and changing it to a wishcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Don't forget the people that have never posted a single sentence that doesn't say NYC... NYC.... NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z RAP likes POU and areas east-southeast tonight for 3-5".. right on the fringe but whats new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It'll be a shame to miss out on this good moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Winter weather advisory just issued for Rockland, 2-4 inches total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 WWA hoisted for 2-4 inches of snow baby! Cold air is going rush in and turn that plain rain over to snow later! funny aspect is that Mt Holly NWS is only going 4-8 even down in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 News 12 just updated still going with 1-3 for north of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Im too lazy. Just gonna fill some stockings with salt and launch them up on the roof.My brother, the carpenter, said rock salt on roof could create other issues and my old man, the retired firematic person, told me I couldn't use a torch on the end of his grill propane tank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My brother, the carpenter, said rock salt on roof could create other issues and my old man, the retired firematic person, told me I couldn't use a torch on the end of his grill propane tank... My father threw a hammer at me when i suggested a torch on his roof. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My father threw a hammer at me when i suggested a torch on his roof. LolI will say this, the snow today is perfect for holding an adult beverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think the crew south of 84 is in for a nice surprise. Upper levels seem to be cooling nicely on the mesoanalysis, my dewpoint is 32 with an air temp of 40, so once the precip moves in, I would think it changes to snow pretty quickly. Hopefully we can get an inch or two out of it as well. Here's the latest RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 ^where do i sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think the crew south of 84 is in for a nice surprise. Upper levels seem to be cooling nicely on the mesoanalysis, my dewpoint is 32 with an air temp of 40, so once the precip moves in, I would think it changes to snow pretty quickly. Hopefully we can get an inch or two out of it as well. Here's the latest RGEM GFS came decently far north at 18z too. As the wave moves northeast I think mid-level frontogenesis is gonna help develop a weenie band in the vicinity of POU tonight. With evaporative cooling and latent heat of melting at work maybe a few surprises like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think the crew south of 84 is in for a nice surprise. Upper levels seem to be cooling nicely on the mesoanalysis, my dewpoint is 32 with an air temp of 40, so once the precip moves in, I would think it changes to snow pretty quickly. Hopefully we can get an inch or two out of it as well. Here's the latest RGEM Now that would be nice. I'm just not feeling more than 3" for this. What I want most is to lock up this snowpack with some really cold temps. This 40+ is killing the crust that started to form, hopefully it comes right back tonight when it cools off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is almost warning criteria.. obviously a bit of that is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS came decently far north at 18z too. As the wave moves northeast I think mid-level frontogenesis is gonna help develop a weenie band in the vicinity of POU tonight. With evaporative cooling and latent heat of melting at work maybe a few surprises like you said. Great pickup. It's nice to have a met around to point out some of the dynamics at play and why things could break in the right (or wrong) direction. Now that would be nice. I'm just not feeling more than 3" for this. What I want most is to lock up this snowpack with some really cold temps. This 40+ is killing the crust that started to form, hopefully it comes right back tonight when it cools off. Well, as ENY said, the GFS shifted north too and has a swath of like 5-8" across the lower Hudson valley through tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18 GFS is awsome for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18 GFS is awsome for my area. If you get under heavy echoes and cool the column early in the game this could be a real nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My point and click has less than 2" of snow forecast between tonight and tomorrow night. I'd love what the RGEM and more specifically the GFS is showing, but it's a huge change in a short period of time. I'd feel much more comfortable if I was down towards Rockland and Westchester for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18 GFS is awsome for my area.You ain't kidding! WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My point and click has less than 2" of snow forecast between tonight and tomorrow night. I'd love what the RGEM and more specifically the GFS is showing, but it's a huge change in a short period of time. I'd feel much more comfortable if I was down towards Rockland and Westchester for this one. It's really incredible how many nowcast events we've had this season.. still a low confidence forecast 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's really incredible how many nowcast events we've had this season.. still a low confidence forecast 12 hours out. Without a doubt, even the easy to forecast SWFE's have been a nightmare this year. Progressive flow? HM made a couple of posts on twitter that highlighted the point made in your post above: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 16m16 minutes ago There is some pretty legitimate mid level frontogenesis tonight in "NW areas" that seemingly "miss the heaviest" ... hmmmm Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 13m13 minutes ago I could see amounts getting raised in NE PA/Leigh into NW NJ-Hudson Valley. Excellent frontogen/snow making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Another 1-3/2-4 deal looks like. I'm glad we're getting a big break after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Without a doubt, even the easy to forecast SWFE's have been a nightmare this year. Progressive flow? HM made a couple of posts on twitter that highlighted the point made in your post above: Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 16m16 minutes ago There is some pretty legitimate mid level frontogenesis tonight in "NW areas" that seemingly "miss the heaviest" ... hmmmm Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 13m13 minutes ago I could see amounts getting raised in NE PA/Leigh into NW NJ-Hudson Valley. Excellent frontogen/snow making. HM is the man, I hope he is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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