chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 has anybody taken a snow core sample to see how much liquid is in the snow? snow pack here is 14 in sun areas to 17 in shaded areas This is from Oakland, which by the map appears to be near Butler. Looks to be about 3". http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?ey=2015&em=3&ed=7&units=0&station=NJ-BG-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Way out in their range, but the H3R and RAP give us a little hope for something other than flurries tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 0z Euro and 12z Rgem still give us some hope for 4-6 inches...and 12z GFS looks to have given NW areas more precip than 0z and 6z (0.5" makes it to Westchester) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is from Oakland, which by the map appears to be near Butler. Looks to be about 3". http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/graph.html?ey=2015&em=3&ed=7&units=0&station=NJ-BG-29 thanks yea okland is about 5 miles to my ne, guess they expect 8 inches of snow as they have snowpack go up to 25 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If anything, this only increased the flooding threat down the road by adding more LE to the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 3.6" of pure cement out there! Wow the torture.. 22" snowpack 63.4" on the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 3.6" of pure cement out there! Wow the torture.. 22" snowpack 63.4" on the season Same here. For a gradient/fringe winter, it's interesting how uniform the seasonal totals have been in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Same here. For a gradient/fringe winter, it's interesting how uniform the seasonal totals have been in our area. Yes this is true. I have also benefited from a few early season elevation events. I believe Animal is also 60"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Let's hope we can surpass expectations for once. Way out in their range, but the H3R and RAP give us a little hope for something other than flurries tonight rap_ref_nyc_17.png hrrr_ref_nyc_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Let's hope we can surpass expectations for once. The euro is now 4+ for north of NYC, has snow into Thursday night, shows both waves hitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The euro is now 4+ for north of NYC, has snow into Thursday night, shows both waves hitting. Dude the euro reduced precip for anyone North of nyc.. See my post in the main thread that proves it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ulster relax , This 15 to 1 applies to you guys . If this happens this is a lot better than you thought you were going to do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dude the euro reduced precip for anyone North of nyc.. See my post in the main thread that proves itYea....I'm starting to realize why just about every single storm underperforms since Ive been reading this forum. Everyone throws out the bottom half of models that show the lesser amounts. Then....they choose the higher side totals of the models that are predicting the most. Hence....you always get an inflated forecast. This storm is no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dude the euro reduced precip for anyone North of nyc.. See my post in the main thread that proves itSorry, I guess I was wrong, the map I saw was showing 4+ for us. You just proved that wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I have the model output dude.. U need to relax with being the weather board police lately... it cut down on precip North and west of the city.. I showed you the comparison between the 2 runs.. THATS all I'm saying... Is it cut down on total LE I can`t too much bulls%^& . I see no ability from people to see 5 feet in front of their face . You making a big deal over .2 over 36 hours . To me that baby %^&*( . So I help police it or the board will go to crap . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sorry, I guess I was wrong, the map I saw was showing 4+ for us. You just proved that wrong Oh? How much does it show for "us"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Oh? How much does it show for "us"?The snow map I saw was showing 4+ but he showed it cut down orecip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It does show 4-6 for the entire state of NJ snowman19. South and central areas it shows more. That being said.....we can't all throw out the NAM and GFS because it isn't what we like. There is a reason why our storms are always underperforming this forums average consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The snow map I saw was showing 4+ but he showed it cut down orecip How much precip does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I can`t too much bulls%^& . I see no ability from people to see 5 feet in front of their face . You making a big deal over .2 over 36 hours . To me that baby %^&*( . So I help police it or the board will go to crap . Not gonna argue with u... If u wanna police something.. Police an exact verbatim model PBP instead of roundups, and increased totals.. Just like before.. There's a difference between a model showing 4-8, and 3-6... Is it that hard to just say 3-6? Yes because God forbid we don't add a wishcast factor.... So next time a model shows 3-6 I'm gonna say 6-12" since 6" would still fall In that form of logic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It does show 4-6 for the entire state of NJ snowman19. South and central areas it shows more. That being said.....we can't all throw out the NAM and GFS because it isn't what we like. There is a reason why are storms are always underperforming this forums average consensus safe call is 3-5 from areas north rt 78 in nj to about greenwood lake nj, 2-4 for extreme nw jersey into lower ny state. 4-7 south of 78 and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How much precip does it show? Less than .2 of that 00z run last night is un-accounted for LE (ie last night and todays "rain") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It does show 4-6 for the entire state of NJ snowman19. South and central areas it shows more. That being said.....we can't all throw out the NAM and GFS because it isn't what we like. There is a reason why are storms are always underperforming this forums average consensus Sorry, but it's not this forum. The snowfall forecasts by the NWS have busted on just about every system this winter. The storms have underperformed, and we've discussed that it's a trend going back to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Less than .2 of that 00z run last night is un-accounted for LE (ie last night and todays "rain") And that map has between .4 and .6 LE tonight, has snowman checked the soundings to show that half that precip is lost to rain to claim what he did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 And that map has between .4 and .6 LE tonight, has snowman checked the soundings to show that half that precip is lost to rain to claim what he did?Ok, I apologize, so half of the 4 inches is lost to rain, so we get 1-2 inches instead of 4. I didn't go to buffkit and check the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sorry, but it's not this forum. The snowfall forecasts by the NWS have busted on just about every system this winter. The storms have underperformed, and we've discussed that it's a trend going back to last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 And that map has between .4 and .6 LE tonight, has snowman checked the soundings to show that half that precip is lost to rain to claim what he did? From what I can see on WxBell, it's all snow from the start for anyone from Northern Westchester on north. I think 1-2" would be the most I'd expect here. The H3R does continue to look decent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ok, I apologize, so half of the 4 inches is lost to rain, so we get 1-2 inches instead of 4. I didn't go to buffkit and check the soundings No, you misunderstand. You just claimed the euro didnt show 4" for us. How did you know that without even looking at a map or sounding? The map ulster posted shows .4-.6 or .7 through rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Been doing my best truckee impersonation up on my parents roof busting ice dams for the past couple of hours. I don't miss this crap. I broke 55" for snowfall at home, I wonder if I'll join the 60" club before it's all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Been doing my best truckee impersonation up on my parents roof busting ice dams for the past couple of hours. I don't miss this crap. I broke 55" for snowfall at home, I wonder if I'll join the 60" club before it's all over. Im too lazy. Just gonna fill some stockings with salt and launch them up on the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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