gravitylover Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's cold out there man. These thin clouds moved in and the temp stopped going up. Think they'll stay low all day or will they get close to the forecasted upper 20's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Though I am disappointed in getting the shaft again on Thursday, getting a few more inches tonight will make for an even more beautiful winter wonderland out there. Once this stuff starts melting, it is going to look really ugly out there before the green of Spring truly arrives. Will enjoy the deep winterscape while it lasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM tells Ana to put her close clothes (mobile typing is hard) back on, north of 84. Model consensus looks to win out over meteorolosophy this go around, sadly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM tells Ana to put her close back on north of 84. Model consensus looks to win out over meteorolosophy this go around, sadly enough. I kinda like my spot for the Wednesday night/Thursday event. Feel safe going with 4-7 inches in my area. Wondering what tonight brings. It may get knarly overnight with ice. Can't jackpot every event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah, who knows... I can easily see how both events overperform, and also how both become snoozefests. There's not a great deal of wiggle room. Albany just updated their map for the first wave to introduce a bigger 3-4" area, and even a few 4-6" pixels. Hopefully the precip gets in and out before it has a chance to taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Did someone in this forum really buy into the NAM? I don't think so. Just because they are fun to look at and talk about, doesn't mean we thought they'd verify. I was thinking 3-6" was a reasonable expectation. That may be on the high side, but we'll see what happens over the next 12-18 hours of modeling. Agreed, we've all maintained reasonable expectations. I'm talking more about a few of the folks in the NE forum who found some rather unique ways to justify the NAM. I thought many of the Tippy/eduggs ideas for this system had merit, but for me, it's just too sketchy to weigh one dubious piece of guidance over many stronger models, even when the pattern has been wreaking havoc on the models. It's a bit reminiscent of the January blizzard, with the exception being that it's slightly less surprising for the NAM to crack under pressure than the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Agreed, we've all maintained reasonable expectations. I'm talking more about a few of the folks in the NE forum who found some rather unique ways to justify the NAM. I thought many of the Tippy/eduggs ideas for this system had merit, but for me, it's just too sketchy to weigh one dubious piece of guidance over many stronger models, even when the pattern has been wreaking havoc on the models. It's a bit reminiscent of the January blizzard, with the exception being that it's slightly less surprising for the NAM to crack under pressure than the Euro... Gotcha, makes sense. In any event, one of these days (ie. next winter) a system will break in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is definitely south as well. We may be trending our way towards scattered flurries or even mostly cloudy skies on Thursday. Nice storm for DC and southern PA/NJ. That area seems to be the king of March snows lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is definitely south as well. We may be trending our way towards scattered flurries or even mostly cloudy skies on Thursday. Nice storm for DC and southern PA/NJ. That area seems to be the king of March snows lately. FYI Some schools are early dismissal near me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Rob, what was your low this am? Tickled down to -0.8 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Rob, what was your low this am? Tickled down to -0.8 here Oh, really? <bastard> Good for you, mine was 2 above, colder than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm curious to see how long the low to mid-level cold air holds, I want an over performer! There's always that chance this could be the last event >1" for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm curious to see how long the low to mid-level cold air holds, I want an over performer! There's always that chance this could be the last event >1" for many of us Those are fighting words around here! You certainly could be right though. Even if it is, barring a torch, we should hold snowpack through mid-March, if not later, which would exceed last year I believe. I'm also hoping for one more below zero night, hopefully Thursday night does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Those are fighting words around here! You certainly could be right though. Even if it is, barring a torch, we should hold snowpack through mid-March, if not later, which would exceed last year I believe. I'm also hoping for one more below zero night, hopefully Thursday night does it. Hah, yeah it's nice to have such a solid snowpack. I actually think we end up cashing in around or just after the equinox, euro weeklies hinted at the resurgence of a –epo +pna pattern.. if only the NAO could tank for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm curious to see how long the low to mid-level cold air holds, I want an over performer! There's always that chance this could be the last event >1" for many of us It seems like the change from snow is almost always earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It seems like the change from snow is almost always earlier than expected. I do remember several events from around 2007-2009ish that were later than expected, but yeah, its been sleetfest around here lately. December 27 2012 and Dec 15 2013 come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm curious to see how long the low to mid-level cold air holds, I want an over performer! There's always that chance this could be the last event >1" for many of us Mother's Day blizzard incoming. I can feel it. Radar looks pretty good to our west, and I see quite a few 6"+ reports from eastern Ohio and western PA. I'm optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It seems like the change from snow is almost always earlier than expected. Yeah I agree, it seems like 70% of the time these disappoint.. especially with the lack of a surface high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mother's Day blizzard incoming. I can feel it. Radar looks pretty good to our west, and I see quite a few 6"+ reports from eastern Ohio and western PA. I'm optimistic. You think perhaps with the precip moving due east it'll increase the amount of cold air damming in the valleys? Maybe the Catskills are too far west of here but the river valley, especially with things all frozen, maybe will help..I know I sound like a weenie but I can only hope Edit: HIRES NAM on ewall had the warm punch at 850mb which is at 5000 feet so thats probably not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You think perhaps with the precip moving due east it'll increase the amount of cold air damming in the valleys? Maybe the Catskills are too far west of here but the river valley, especially with things all frozen, maybe will help..I know I sound like a weenie but I can only hope Well, the mid-levels (above 850) look to go over long before the surface, so the best case scenario would be some prolonged freezing rain. That said, the southerly to southwesterly flow is pretty deep in the low-levels. Seems like a non-starter for CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well, the mid-levels (above 850) look to go over long before the surface, so the best case scenario would be some prolonged freezing rain. That said, the southerly to southwesterly flow is pretty deep in the low-levels. Seems like a non-starter for CAD. Yeah looks like the warm nose is poking in around the 750-800 hPa layer around or just after 00z (if you believe the NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Light snow has commenced in central Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Light snow has commenced in central Orange County. I'm at my in laws In New windsor, just some stray flakes here and there so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm at my in laws In New windsor, just some stray flakes here and there so far I had been seeing stray flakes here in Goshen for the last hour, now its a very light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I had been seeing stray flakes here in Goshen for the last hour, now its a very light snow. As usual.. After posting.. Light snow has started here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 As usual.. After posting.. Light snow has started here too More like flurries here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Light snow in Harriman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 More like flurries here now Heavy flurries here, right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z nam is still bad ice up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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