snywx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z RGEM @ 48 Precip looks more expansive and may even be north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z RGEM @ 48 Precip looks more expansive and may even be north Told ya GGEM will cave, idk bout GFS tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Pick a model lol.. 0z NAM, RGEM, GFS @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I see 2-4"... Not the 4-6" amounts the NAM is giving us Yeah, I agree, I said the NAM was probably counting the sleet as snow, so the 4-6" was a bit overdone. But the GFS only had an inch or two, so it was the outlier. It did bump amounts slightly tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Pick a model lol.. 0z NAM, RGEM, GFS @ 48 They're all very similar initially however the GFS stalls the low out and drives it South as if there's some major confluence.. GFS and euro are overdoing the strength of the confluence imo.. That's my call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 They're all very similar initially however the GFS stalls the low out and drives it South as if there's some major confluence.. GFS and euro are overdoing the strength of the confluence imo.. That's my call.. A blend between the GFS/NAM would still give us a decent snowfall. Hopefully by 12z tomorrow we get a better idea of which way to lean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 A blend between the GFS/NAM would still give us a decent snowfall. Hopefully by 12z tomorrow we get a better idea of which way to lean It's gonna be tricky especially with wave after wave...point and click for me is 4-10" currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's gonna be tricky especially with wave after wave...point and click for me is 4-10" currently I could see 5-10" being reasonable as of now. 2-4" tomorrow with 3-6" Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 I could see 5-10" being reasonable as of now. 2-4" tomorrow with 3-6" Thursday. Jeez lol.. Im running out of room to put this damn snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I could see 5-10" being reasonable as of now. 2-4" tomorrow with 3-6" Thursday. Agreed, just view it as 1 big event, might as well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GEM looks pretty similar to 12z, perhaps nudged a bit NW. Looks like 3-6" or so for the region (and 2-3" for tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GEM looks pretty similar to 12z, perhaps nudged a bit NW. Looks like 3-6" or so for the region (and 2-3" for tomorrow). Yeah I agree.. Precip looks a bit more expansive to the north but overall very similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GEM looks pretty similar to 12z, perhaps nudged a bit NW. Looks like 3-6" or so for the region (and 2-3" for tomorrow). Taking a look at the whole run now, the GGEM came in juicier and further north with the heavier precip, more expansive precip shield as well.... The trend is our friend, GFS is trending South... It's out to lunch imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Taking a look at the whole run now, the GGEM came in juicier and further north with the heavier precip, more expansive precip shield as well.... The trend is our friend, GFS is trending South... It's out to lunch imo The GFS was basically identical to it's last run, with the exception of being a little drier in southern NJ and Delaware. I'll be interested to see what the UKMET shows, as it's been pretty consistent with placing the heaviest snows somewhere between here and the city for the past few model runs (plus I feel it's been one of the better models this winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm still leaning toward wagons south with the Thursday jazz. North of 84 we can't get a traditional overrunning event to break in our favor, let alone one reliant on zany anafrontal dynamics... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Definitely a little south, still a decent hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm still leaning toward wagons south with the Thursday jazz. North of 84 we can't get a traditional overrunning event to break in our favor, let alone one reliant on zany anafrontal dynamics... lol. That's the smart forecast at this point, I'd love to jump on the eduggs wagon but need some more global model support for that. An x-section across the front on the 00z NAM is pretty cool to look at.. shows the rearward sloping ascent along the frontal zone (omega, shaded) associated with the ageostrophic circulation (white arrows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm still leaning toward wagons south with the Thursday jazz. North of 84 we can't get a traditional overrunning event to break in our favor, let alone one reliant on zany anafrontal dynamics... lol. That's the smart forecast at this point, I'd love to jump on the eduggs wagon but need some more global model support for that. An x-section across the front on the 00z NAM is pretty cool to look at.. shows the rearward sloping ascent along the frontal zone (omega, shaded) associated with the ageostrophic circulation (white arrows). You guys think even a 3-6" deal is out of the question? Seems like what the models are converging on (aside from the NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 If you blend the NAM/GFS then 3-6" is the probable outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If you blend the NAM/GFS then 3-6" is the probable outcomeYea, 2-4, 3-6 as it looks now, pending the euro, the nam is doing its usual overamped overjuiced routine it would seem, still an advisory event up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You guys think even a 3-6" deal is out of the question? Seems like what the models are converging on (aside from the NAM). Not out of the question at all, I'd just lean toward a baroclinic axis centered slightly further southeast than modeled with a bit less precipitation being thrown back over the front. Basically I'd lean toward the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not out of the question at all, I'd just lean toward a baroclinic axis centered slightly further southeast than modeled with a bit less precipitation being thrown back over the front. I'd just like to close out the season with one storm where I don't have to claw my way to more than 3-4", make it happen ENY! Just as an aside, as per the GFS, Wednesday may very well be the warmest day until the middle of the month. After that, maybe we can break out the shorts and t-shirts for a few days just to keep the spring fetish people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'd just like to close out the season with one storm where I don't have to claw my way to more than 3-4", make it happen ENY! Just as an aside, as per the GFS, Wednesday may very well be the warmest day until the middle of the month. After that, maybe we can break out the shorts and t-shirts for a few days just to keep the spring fetish people happy. You and me both, the things I'd do to see an 18" event this month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You and me both, the things I'd do to see an 18" event this month.. Ha! That would certainly make it an A+ season. It's amazing to me that a couple hundred miles away, they got something like 70-80" of snow from 4 storms and meanwhile we've just about been nickel and dimed to death. It wasn't really a big deal to me, but this near continual parade of storms that fall short of expectations definitely is taking it's toll. Hopefully we get a nice surprise at some point before the season comes to an end. I will say it's better than last year, when we had a 2 week blitz of snow that abruptly ended on 2/18 and we were basically done for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's the smart forecast at this point, I'd love to jump on the eduggs wagon but need some more global model support for that. An x-section across the front on the 00z NAM is pretty cool to look at.. shows the rearward sloping ascent along the frontal zone (omega, shaded) associated with the ageostrophic circulation (white arrows). Wow, great visualization. Is that a publicly available product? You guys think even a 3-6" deal is out of the question? Seems like what the models are converging on (aside from the NAM).I hate to anchor myself to a range at this point. ENY's analysis makes sense to me, and my gut tells me that tomorrow night be the more substantial of the two snowfalls imby. Still time for further adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ha! That would certainly make it an A+ season. It's amazing to me that a couple hundred miles away, they got something like 70-80" of snow from 4 storms and meanwhile we've just about been nickel and dimed to death. It wasn't really a big deal to me, but this near continual parade of storms that fall short of expectations definitely is taking it's toll. Hopefully we get a nice surprise at some point before the season comes to an end. I will say it's better than last year, when we had a 2 week blitz of snow that abruptly ended on 2/18 and we were basically done for the season. Yeah, I'm amazed by the persistence of the synoptic pattern across the eastern half of north america since mid January. Could make the climatology argument that systems are gonna start coming north in March, but I have a feeling the rich will get richer (or we'll all get torched) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow, great visualization. Is that a publicly available product? I hate to anchor myself to a range at this point. ENY's analysis makes sense to me, and my gut tells me that tomorrow night be the more substantial of the two snowfalls imby. Still time for further adjustments. It's actually from the AmWx model center, nice little feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Amazing how most guidance is continuing to bump North God I hope the nam scores lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The evening commute is going to be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The evening commute is going to be nasty. If I were a betting man, I say we see 3-6" areawide, the trend as been to underestimate the cold all year, the difference between an extra hour or so staying all snow will be the difference between 2-4" and 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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