Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Gorgeous night out there with clear, starry skies and moderate temperatures. Spent more than an hour skating/playing hockey on my rink. Have to spend as much time as I can out there because it's days are definitely numbered. Last year, I had my final skate on the morning of St. Patrick's Day, but I'm not sure it'll make it that far this year. I did open it 2 weeks earlier than last year, so in the end, it should even out. Nice. If I remember correctly, you were debating even setting up the rink this year after a mild and rainy December. This winter sure threw us for a loop. 5.5F, might nab a surprise subzero low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yet another below zero day here, sitting at -3 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Finished at .9" new snow, nice little squall to freshin the WhiteWe're you working last night? I was wondering if you were at the job Newburgh had in the complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Got down to 0.6 here Sunday into Monday is looking good as of now for a 2-4" type deal, perhaps a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 We're you working last night? I was wondering if you were at the job Newburgh had in the complex. Yea we were there, went to a 4th alarm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Fell to -0.8 here. Should be a nice, brisk day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nice warning criteria snowfall for this area on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Nice warning criteria snowfall for this area on the 12z NAM. What kinda ratios are the numericals printing out? Haven't really looked to far into this event until just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 What kinda ratios are the numericals printing out? Haven't really looked to far into this event until just now Hopefully those 150:1 ratios that Julian was mentioning last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 What kinda ratios are the numericals printing out? Haven't really looked to far into this event until just now 10 or 12:1 Inland areas should be favored here over the coast, assuming that the heavier rates make it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The NAM has 5.0" on the nose for SWF, 3.6" for MMU and 5.6" at HPN. BDR is 6.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 10 or 12:1 Inland areas should be favored here over the coast, assuming that the heavier rates make it up here. GFS doesn't seem as enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The NAM has 5.0" on the nose for SWF, 3.6" for MMU and 5.6" at HPN. BDR is 6.4". Hopefully those qpf numbers increase, they won't issue warnings up here unless theres a chance for 7+" Unless ice is also involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I would be rather surprised if we tickled warning criteria with this storm. 2-5" seems reasonable for most. I think the ceiling is a bit higher to our east, where there's a better chance for some of that GoM moisture to interact with the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Hopefully those qpf numbers increase, they won't issue warnings up here unless theres a chance for 7+" Unless ice is also involved When I said warning criteria I was looking more at the clownmaps which show 6"+ for a lot of the area. Those exact outputs that I gave are only exact locations and it doesn't mean that someone 10 miles East didn't get 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Still a decent snowfall up here, 3-5" not a bad call. Enough to freshen the snowpack. Snow is snow, hopefully we can can cash in on the other possible waves this week, if they trend cooler. New Paltz, NY is current location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Either way I think this area is safe from mixing issues. Whether you favor the warmer GFS/NAM or the colder GGEM, they all seem to keep it mostly confined south of Rt. 94 and 287 in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 We've learned this year to set the bar low. I'd agree with 2-5" for most. If it over performs, great, but the only systems that have really done so this year for us have been a couple of cold front passages (where we get 2-3" of snow instead of 1"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Still a decent snowfall up here, 3-5" not a bad call. Enough to freshen the snowpack. Snow is snow, hopefully we can can cash in on the other possible waves this week, if they trend cooler. Yeah, I'm about to pass last year's total, so any snow is profit at this point. I do think a snowpack-slaughtering is inevitable in the next 10 days, but hopefully it's a "clean slate" deal that makes room for a last huzzah instead of a harbinger of spring. I wouldn't mind a brief change of pace, honestly. It's sort of like after Thanksgiving dinner, when all the pies and cakes grow monotonous, and you have to reach over and take another couple bites of lukewarm turkey leftovers before desert can be finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 We've learned this year to set the bar low. I'd agree with 2-5" for most. If it over performs, great, but the only systems that have really done so this year for us have been a couple of cold front passages (where we get 2-3" of snow instead of 1"). I'm reluctant to even go 2-5" at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm reluctant to even go 2-5" at this point in time. 2-5 flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 2-5 flurries? Well, first off, we've seen how much things have changed this winter within 48 hours. Secondly, if you go back to the summer when we had the drought, the majority of events have under performed, very few have performed as modeled or over performed. Sure there have been some and we did get out of the drought but the overall trend, at least IMBY, has been bet the under. Lets see what happens over the weekend, I'll be rooting for an over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Well, first off, we've seen how much things have changed this winter within 48 hours. Secondly, if you go back to the summer when we had the drought, the majority of events have under performed, very few have performed as modeled or over performed. Sure there have been some and we did get out of the drought but the overall trend, at least IMBY, has been bet the under. Lets see what happens over the weekend, I'll be rooting for an over performer. Very true, and I believe I made a similar point with the last system about under performing systems being a theme going back to last year. In fact, some parts of the region are still characterized as "abnormally dry" on the US drought monitor (parts of Orange, Rockland and Sussex and into NE PA). If we do have another bust, at least we can look forward to some histrionics from various members of the board. That always helps overcome the sting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Very true, and I believe I made a similar point with the last system about under performing systems being a theme going back to last year. In fact, some parts of the region are still characterized as "abnormally dry" on the US drought monitor (parts of Orange, Rockland and Sussex and into NE PA). If we do have another bust, at least we can look forward to some histrionics from various members of the board. That always helps overcome the sting. I didn't realize you made the same point, I missed that, sorry. I honestly haven't even looked at the US drought monitor in months since we've been in this frozen tundra. And yes, the stomping of feet, temper tantrums, arguments, etc will over perform if some see another bust in their eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I didn't realize you made the same point, I missed that, sorry. I honestly haven't even looked at the US drought monitor in months since we've been in this frozen tundra. And yes, the stomping of feet, temper tantrums, arguments, etc will over perform if some see another bust in their eyes. lol, no worries, I was just validating your point! We may not see as many tantrums on Sunday night though since it's a school night. As we wait for the Euro, I'm curious where does everyone here weigh in on the dress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 lol, no worries, I was just validating your point! We may not see as many tantrums on Sunday night though since it's a school night. As we wait for the Euro, I'm curious where does everyone here weigh in on the dress? I just heard a bit about the stupid dress, looks gold and off white, almost light purple to me. Whats the story behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I just heard a bit about the stupid dress, looks gold and off white, almost light purple to me. Whats the story behind it? Some girl from Scotland released a picture of it on Tumblr on Wednesday I believe, it's a picture of her mom or a friend's mom from a wedding, and there was a lot of disagreement among her friends over what color the dress was. From Tumblr, it sort of broke the internet. It was all over twitter yesterday, on all the major news shows, etc. The dress is actually black and blue, but the picture is overexposed a little, and depending on how your eyes and brain are interpreting it, you could see it as either white and gold or black and blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Here's the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It looks a little bluer and blacker than it did to me yesterday evening, but the image has been reposted so many times that it might just be bastardized due to jpeg compression and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It looks a little bluer and blacker than it did to me yesterday evening, but the image has been reposted so many times that it might just be bastardized due to jpeg compression and such. That's actually the original post from tumblr, I think when you look at the larger picture, it's easier to see that it's blue and black as opposed to the snippet of the dress that most people are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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