UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 My WWA went from 4-6" to 3-7". If that doesn't tell you their unsure idk what does... My opinion is this will be a busy In either direction... Eitherwe end up on the high end or get the shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 My WWA went from 4-6" to 3-7". If that doesn't tell you their unsure idk what does... My opinion is this will be a busy In either direction... Eitherwe end up on the high end or get the shaft Going with the persistence theme, just about every system has busted on the low side this year to date, so that may be the way to go. Plus the shadowing effect looks to be real for at least part of the region. We'll have to see what the H3R does as the day goes on, but as of now, it definitely keeps the better stuff to our south. Still out of it's range though for later this afternoon into tonight. I think 3-6" is the right call for most of us. I doubt we see any widespread totals above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Animal what was your low temp? -7 overnight low here in Denville Zero was the low. Higher terrain did not cool like the lower evelations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lowest temps I could locate in New Jersey this morning. Wallpack, NJ bottomed out at 17 below Sussex airport bottomed out at 12 below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 See lol... It's obviously incorrect but I was just sayingLOL...GEM shows a snowhole right over my backyard...Luckily the chances of that are slim to none(or so I hope). What that be? Downsloping or dry air intrusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 My WWA went from 4-6" to 3-7". If that doesn't tell you their unsure idk what does... My opinion is this will be a busy In either direction... Eitherwe end up on the high end or get the shaftThe thing that makes me uneasy is the fact that both the gfs and euro are both showing way lower amounts than the other models and gfs has been extremely consistent on that for a few runs, the euro showing it last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OK. I finally took a look at my records. This mornings low of -14 was a record for KMGJ for the date (as far as I could tell the old record was 1979) and is the coldest I've recorded while living here. The previous coldest was -13 on 2/12/14, the one before that was -12 on 12/15/05 which I tied earlier this week on 2/18/15. This season I've recorded 10 days with below zero lows so far while last year was a total of 11 days with below zero lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ulster County Snow, looks like your concerns were warranted. The nam just came in drier for our area and northern nj and it's showing a warm tongue at 925mb so ratios are going to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 -3.5 the low here . I just don't get great rad cooling . Nam shifted again with precip but on the bright side it's all snow for me now so .5o plus of precip . 3-6 should be a safe call for my area of nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Some people need to read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Here we go again with the 4-8" apparently if a model shows a maximum of 5 inches for your area it's " 4-8" area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Some people need to read more and post less.I'm sorry. I'll scale it back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm sorry. I'll scale it back... I didn't want to mention names, but I'm glad you got the hint. Thanks for all the climate data, that's some good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I didn't want to mention names, but I'm glad you got the hint. Thanks for all the climate data, that's some good stuff! No problem! Obviously I find it interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No problem! Obviously I find it interesting too. Yeah, those are some pretty interesting stats. Thank goodness society got that polar vortex nonsense out of its system last year so we can enjoy our cold in peace this season. 21.6, up from -11.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Ulster County Snow, looks like your concerns were warranted. The nam just came in drier for our area and northern nj and it's showing a warm tongue at 925mb so ratios are going to suck Saw sun this morning and now with an overcast that is bright and thin. Think there is too much dry air. Expecting 3 inches max for POU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Saw sun this morning and now with an overcast that is bright and thin. Think there is too much dry air. Expecting 3 inches max for POU. Intensity and precip rates are gonna be our downfall if we taint not dry air... Liberty is already reporting light snow, sno virga isn't an issue, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 mt holly nws. looks like the final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Kinda like my call early of 6-8" in NJ and that weenie (not to be named) mocked me... Apparently in his fantasy world the 6-8 is RIGHT OVER NYC I am sorta interested to watch the mix line later today and precip type. Going out to bday party at pub later this afternoon. ride back to highland lakes may be knarly getting up the hills in the area. Road crews better be out aroud 830 - 9 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 -10 for a low here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow has commenced.. Ill be in NYC for a good part of this storm. Drive home should be fun tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow is overhead but not reaching ground here. Virga is alive. Like I said, with dry slots aiming our way from the west, 2-4 inch tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 4" should be the limit for most in our area. Areas of W NJ & E PA should do well ( 6-8"). City should see 2-4" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We almost always end up busting low or on the lowest range forecasted. Nothing new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Steady light snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Regional radar looks a bit suboptimal to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm in New Paltz, how significant is this dry slot, where do ya think it's gonna set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Moderate snow, with one inch on ground here in Liberty , NY Temp 11.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Link to a freely available H3R http://weather.graphics/hrrr/hrrr_gif.php Don't be surprised by a few hours of little to no snow once this first batch moves through. It's well modeled at this point (and obvious by looking at downstream radars). I agree with sny, I think 3-4" is probably the ceiling for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Moderate snow now Coating on all surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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